written by Maxime Gauin printable version send your friend

Friday, 1 April 2011

The recent local elections in France, despite a high abstention, had direct and non negligible consequences on national policy.

The cantonal elections happens generally every three years; the half of the conseillers g’�n’�raux (counties’� counselors) are elected, in two rounds, majoritarian. The d’�partements (counties) assume chiefly educational and social functions, plus some infrastructures (roads). For instance, the annual budget of the Seine-Maritime (Rouen’�s county) is 1,7 milliards of Euros. The three main challengers of these elections were: the left-wing opposition (Socialist Party and their allies of the Front de gauche [Communists and radicals], Europe-"�cologie and few others); the Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP, center-right and conservatives) and her ally the Nouveau Centre (NC, center-right); and the Front national (far right).

These elections happened in a difficult context for Nicolas Sarkozy. Until Autumn 2009, he experienced an alternation of hard periods (like the clear defeat of right in municipal and cantonal elections of March 2008) and more easy times (like the Summer 2009, after the European elections). Since, there is a kind of spiral from Mr. Sarkozy could not escape. Especially, in the regional elections of March 2010, the left was winner in 24 of the 26 regions. The main reasons are: the economic difficulties, the fact that Mr. Sarkozy is now considered by a majority of French as too ineffective, too self-contradictory and too far from their real concerns; the accumulation of scandals, especially since Autumn 2009 (conflicts of interests, misuse of ministerial positions, Bettencourt-Woerth affair, investigation on an alleged illegal fundraising, by Pakistani and Saudi money, of "�douard Balladur’�s presidential campaign in 1995, whose Mr. Sarkozy was the spokesman, holidays in Tunisia of Mich’�le Alliot-Marie, who was forced to resign from his position of minister of Foreign Affairs); and the counter-productive effects of the attempts to seduce the electors of the FN. In short, Mr. Sarkozy is considered by many French, well beyond the sympathizers of left, as the "president of wealthy peoples" who attempts to use crude demagogy to remain in power.

The strong ’� and controversial ’� statements on security, immigration and Islam had, at least for the moment, as main effect to increase the credibility of the FN, and to incite Muslim members of UMP to destroy their card. In March, Abderahmane Dahmane, an adviser of Mr. Sarkozy, left both the presidential palace and the UMP in protest, then asked to Muslim French to arbor a "green star"; Abdallah Zekri, a local official of UMP, tore his card in front of TV cameras: "We [Muslims] cannot remain in a political party who stigmatizes us permanently"; the rector of main Parisian mosque, Dalil Boubaker, a long time sympathizer of the right, expressed his deep disappointment.

Results

The left obtained a net gain in seats, like in all the precedent cantonal elections since 1994. The right, and even more the UMP, lost seats. Several positive local results for the right are due to local leaders of the NC (Fran’�ois Sauvadet in the C’�te-d’�Or), to former members of UMP who preferred to quit the party (Jean-Claude Luche in the Aveyron), or who remain in the UMP but express their strong preference for former Prime Minister (2005-2007) Dominique de Villepin instead of Mr Sarkozy (Fran’�ois Goulard in the Morbihan, Brittany). An independent candidate was elected in the former canton of Mr. Sarkozy, and his close friend Isabelle Balkany is defeated in another canton of the same county, whose Mr. Sarkozy was president from 2004 to 2007. The left maintained her one-seat majority in the Seine-et-Marne, the county of Jean-Fran’�ois Cop’�, general secretary of UMP.

The internal balance of power within the left is not changed, and the preponderance of Socialist Party remains; but this time, the PS did not make big gains of seats in the expenses of his partners.

In December 2010, the UMP parliamentarian majority elevated the necessary minimum of voices to participate to the second round (from 10 % to 12,5 % of registered electors), but this initiative had mostly an effect opposed to the hoped result: several hundreds of UMP candidates were eliminated, and the FN was alone in front of a left candidate.

The FN is actually on a high level, but not more than during some precedent elections. He obtained only two counselors; he had one in 1985, two in 1994, three in 1998. Louis Alliot, general secretary of the FN and boyfriend of the new FN’�s president, Marine Le Pen (the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, now honorary president) hoped "at least 10 counselors, possibly 50" after the first round. Mr. Alliot himself was defeated by the Socialist candidate. All the surveys among the electors of FN indicate that their choice is more frequently motivated by protestation than by adhesion to FN’�s program ’� even if there is a non negligible part who wishes that the FN takes power.

National Effects

The left is clearly reinforced, but did not obtain the triumph which she hoped some months ago (to take ten new counties). Three ’� and probably four, with the Indian Ocean’�s island of Mayotte ’� d’�partements (counties) turned from right to left; one from left to right. 60 counties have now a left-wing majority (including 54 leaded by the PS), 40 a right-wing. The situation of the left is good for the future national elections, but still not until the state of a completely secured victory. The new step will be, in April, the finalization of PS’�s project for 2012 elections, then, the election of the candidate for the presidency. Anyway, this new victory confirms that one the main forces of the left, especially the PS, is the local implantation and the local leaders.

The right-wing parliamentarian majority is subjected to increasing dividing tendencies. The NC, as well as the center-right members of UMP, express more and more critics against the rightist turning taken by Mr. Sarkozy in Summer 2010; the last election corroborates their analysis and their desire of autonomy, reinforced also by the sympathy expressed by former Prime Minister (2005-2007) Dominique de Villepin.  The ideological divergences had a tactic effect for these elections. Mr. Cop’� refused both to support the FN or the left-wing candidates, where the UMP was eliminated. Mr. Sarkozy nuanced a bit this position few days later. Hard-liners of UMP (including several dozens of MPs) preferred to call to abstention, and few even expressed their preference for the FN in case of dual with the PS. On the other hand, Val’�rie P’�cresse, minister of High Education and Research, Laurent Wauquiez, the minister of European Affairs, G’�rard Larcher, the president of the Senate, but also Prime Minister Fran’�ois Fillon, Alain Jupp’�, the minister of Foreign Affairs, and Roselyne Bachelot, the minister of Social Affairs, appealed to vote for the left ’� at least the Socialists and Ecologists ’� against the far right. "We have not the same ideas than the PS; we have not the same values than the FN," argued Ms. P’�cresse.

Similarly, before and after the elections, Mr. Jupp’�, Mr. Larcher and even the spokesman of government Fran’�ois Baroin asked ’� in vain ’� to Mr. Sarkozy to cancel, or at least to postpone, the internal debate within UMP on Islam and secularism. Mr. Fillon suggested to be more careful with this debate. Mr. Cop’� slammed Mr. Fillon’�s position. As a result, the deputy "�tienne Pinte, close to the Prime Minister, asked to Mr. Cop’� to resign from his position of general secretary of UMP; and Mr. Wauquiez asked to Mr. Cop’� to remain quiet, and to be more "responsible". But even some personalities of the rightist side of UMP, like former minister and currently mayor of Nice Christian Estrosi, criticized the future debate. Mr. Estrosi said: "The French peoples expect acts, not debates which risk to create bitter divisions among the citizens."

According to "Le Canard enchain’�" (a well informed weekly; and in this case, the statement was not denied), Mr. Sarkozy accuses Mr. Fillon to accept secretly a defeat of UMP in 2012, with the hope to become the leader of the right in the future.

G’�rard Courtois, senior columnist and former editor-in-chief (2004-2009) of "Le Monde" speaks of a "crisis of authority" for Mr. Sarkozy and adds: "The UMP is increasingly a misnomer: the union is each day a little more theoretical; the movement is paralyzed; and  the cantonal elections cruelly demonstrated the fragility the ’popular’� label." In a chat with readers of Lemonde.fr, Mr. Courtois said also: "if the surveys about intentions of vote indicate in [the Summer 2011] that the president of Republic is as weak as he is today, nothing prevents that a revolt, currently latent, rises and imposes another champion of the right." The conservative weekly "Valeurs actuelles", which appealed to vote for Mr. Sarkozy in 2007, titrates: "The right on the verge of explosion".

Anyway, the next national test will happen as early as September of this year, with the senatorial elections. The half of the Senate will change; the local elected will vote. The right could lose the Senate for the first time since 1968. If both the elections of September 2011 and Spring 2012 are wined by the left, for the first time since 1945, the right will lose anything: all national institutions, and the majority local institutions.