written by Dr. Sureyya Yiğit printable version send your friend

Tuesday, 31 August 2010

Today, throughout the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan celebrations took place noting the fact that the state obtained its independence from the Soviet Union on this very day in 1991. Under a hot Bishkek sun thousands watched President Otunbaeva lay a wreath under the stone statue commemorating those who died in the April demonstrations that forced then President Bakiev to flee. She then proceeded no more than thirty steps to her right where on the gates of the "White House"� she unveiled a plaque revealing the names of those that had been murdered in April. Elsewhere in Osh, Jalalabad and other cities, public gatherings celebrated Independence Day with speeches and colourful dances accompanied by joyful music under a blistering sun.

Quite naturally, despite the attempts of the President to create a facade of celebration, joy and general merriment, Kyrgyz citizens recall the past with sadness and look to the future with trepidation. By revealing the plaque and reiterating the interpretation that those who died gave their lives for the nation and the new political landscape, Otunbaeva hoped to support the view that sacrifices had been made, ones that should not be forgotten.

It is impossible to verify if those who died truly did so for President Otunbaeva. No one can state that they were in favour of Bakiev; equally none can state they died to structure and create the present situation. We witnessed the state today using the symbol of the plaque to demonstrate to the whole nation through national television its own version of events and meanings.

The extent to which how successful this message has been in terms of transmission and understanding can only be known after months, if not years. What is at the forefront of the Kyrgyz people’s minds as their country turns nineteen are not symbols and interpretations of previous events, but the present and the near future.

Food Prices and Food Aid

After Russia suffered terrible natural ecological disasters this summer as well as a dreadful drought, they banned wheat exports for the rest of the year. Given that global grain costs are on the rise, bread prices in Kyrgyz towns and markets have significantly increased.

Bishkek city-dwellers paid 18 soms for a large loaf of bread in July. Today they pay 20 soms; a price increase of more than 10 %. Paying just under half a dollar or so for a loaf of bread may not sound terribly important, but if one is on the poverty line or below, it makes a very big difference; whereby in many cases, mass deprivation transforms into near-starvation.

Whilst bread prices have increased, due to the inter-ethnic conflict in June, potatoes have never been so cheap as farmers do not have the luxury of hundreds of Kazakh and Bishkek wholesalers vying for their produce as was the case in previous years. The violence experienced in June severely disrupted trade, closed borders, and left farmers in the South of the country stranded at a very important time in the agricultural calendar. As the roads were closed, supply greatly outstripped demand and so the farmers have suffered.

The ethnic violence therefore, created trade disruption which has affected the national economy. Post-conflict fear, uncertainty and instability meant that people in the southern trading towns suddenly lost their businesses, hence their livelihood. With the aforementioned supply and the demand for goods being adversely affected the price of labour increased as so many left as refugees, especially during the harvest. Another factor that contributed to this was the annual migrant labourers from Uzbekistan not being able to reach the fields due to the border being closed.

Borders

According to the United Nations Development Program, the first step to help farmers in the South should be the opening the border with Uzbekistan, as this frontier has been closed for most of the year. Such a move would help farmers to get their products to new markets and allow them to increase their incomes. Remaining stagnant and inactive is the worst thing that policy-makers can do at present. As the economy is negatively affected, people migrate and move away. This generally means that it is the most able, and in many ways the hope of the future, that communities lose. Which makes finding solutions to current problems that much harder.

The northern border, especially the Kordai border with Kazakhstan has also been a concern. Whilst Astana has been deaf to the calls of its own citizens living alongside the border, the Kyrgyz government has also not been able to convince their northern neighbours to ease transportation between the two states. A considerable amount of trade has been severely disrupted due to the Kazakhs fear of Kyrgyz troubles spreading north, which Deputy Premier Beknazarov openly criticised several weeks ago.

The agricultural situation has become so dire that according to the United Nations World Food Program, more than a third of a million people in southern Kyrgyzstan are now in need of food assistance. When one bears in mind that the total population of Kyrgyzstan hovers just over the five million mark, one gets a better understanding of the depth of this problem: that one in fifteen need food aid.

Customs Union and Growth

To make matters worse, a new customs union consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus created a trade barrier for Kyrgyzstan which caused a rise in import tariffs for Kyrgyz products. The traditional goods that were exported to Kazakhstan and Russia suffered due to the fact that these countries increased relevant taxes by threefold. Not surprisingly, Kyrgyz exports have decreased significantly.

Most economists predict that economic growth will suffer heavily due to this with many predicting the national economy to contract by at least 5 percent this year. Just as a rise in tide lifts all boats, a fall in tide will most certainly plummet all boats. Unfortunately, the smallest and the weakest of the boats may well go under the waves and perish.

Shadow of the cold future

Whilst all the Kyrgyz are experiencing a sizzling summer with the temperature in the mid-to-high thirties (Celsius), quite a few are thinking of the coming winter. In many ways, the full impact of the violence witnessed in June will only become apparent this winter. A major problem on the horizon for the people of Osh is that they will be forced to rely on coal for the winter. The reason being the city’s gas distribution network was badly damaged during the inter-ethnic clash. Given the fact that incomes are dropping, paying utility bills will also become more difficult for many.

The Elephant

Finally, the elephant in the room which nobody talks about: the upcoming general election of October 10th.  This is definitely by far the most important event that will have the greatest impact on the politics and economy of the country. Whilst the Kyrgyz nation has indeed been focusing on their independence celebrations, at the back of their minds lingers the uncertainty of October 11th.  Not what the result will be, as to how the result will be accepted, if accepted at all. Probably the first thing that the Kyrgyz people wish to wipe away on that day is corruption. Unfortunately, it is an ill that cannot be wished away but has to be acted upon by committed parliamentarians.

19

People who are in their forties will recall the year 1985, when English musician Paul Hardcastle had a hit record called "19"� which told the story of American soldiers fighting in Vietnam, how their average age was usually nineteen. The average Kyrgyz who is nineteen usually attends university and quite naturally ponders over his/her future. The Kyrgyz state, at nineteen is also at a crossroads, a turning point, where choices need to be made. Should the ship of state continue to steer onto the previous course of authoritarian criminocracy or make a change and make way for the port of parliamentary democracy?

The Kyrgyz nation has more pressing issues to worry about: heating, bread prices and border trade to name just three.

 Choices

Therefore, Kyrgyzstan at age nineteen looks to the future with uncertainty, knowing that important days lie just ahead. Make the right move and rewards will flow. Making the wrong one will mean more of the awful same.

As the sparks from fireworks brighten the Bishkek evening sky, many Kyrgyz are wondering if the expected autumnal political sparks will light forest fires more deadly than the ones experienced in Russia last month.