In early August of 2010, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) held another summit in Armenia. Russia continues to increase tension guided by its questionable policies in the "zone of privileged interests " or another words, in the former post Soviet block with bright examples in Central Asia and Caucasus. Without a clearly defined interests and constructive regional strategy, Russia has returned to Central Asia with ideas of a military bases and hydropower projects sliding relations between Central Asian states downward.
Kyrgyz unrest in April 2010 and subsequently followed June riots in the Ferghana Valley were in no small part the result of incitement by the Kremlin and its short vision policy to act constructively in the times of the crisis. Most of Moscow’s actions in the region are declarative.
Now, a new protocol on Russian military base in Armenia assumes the obligation to protect Yerevan, the Kremlin pushes Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia to the need of finding alternatives to the alliance. In parallel, Moscow continues to run a campaign of overthrowing Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko as the Kremlin did in Kyrgyz scenario with Bakiyev, provoking the Belarusian opposition and forming a negative opinion about the leader of Minsk.
Such submission of post-Soviet republics will not have a show of force but on the contrary it reflects the Kremlin’s inability to be a strong leader in CIS. This is particularly evident in the case with Russia created CSTO.
CSTO member states do not have a common understanding of threats and ways of dealing with them. All member countries burdened by complex and sharp contradictions with each other having neither the desire nor the ability to work together in strengthening regional security. CSTO has no ability to collectively address the important issues.
"The only reason for CSTO is to periodically show off Moscow’s some kind of allies. The leaders of Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had to twice a year put the bow and represent obedient little brothers of the Kremlin. " - says expert Alexander Golts
At this summit, the leader of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, after long reflection, suggested that organization should "contribute to the formation of the state in Kyrgyzstan’. To do so, it is decided to amend the statutes of the CSTO which lets "the organization to intervene more effectively in any crisis".
Thus, Russia wants CSTO charter forth appropriate opportunities for intervention in post-Soviet states. During the Kyrgyz conflict, Russia unsuccessfully tried to get the approval from UN Security Council which would certainly untie the Kremlin’s hands. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus possibly kept quiet this time but you can expect them to resist Russian initiatives by delaying the issue and shift a greater emphasis toward the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) where China is not noisy but adamantly against the Russian domination in the region. Desperate request of the Kyrgyz leadership to the Kremlin is unlikely to give more sympathy to Kyrgyzstan from its neighbors.
In support of the above, it is appropriate to recall some of the important decisions of previous CSTO summits.
A year ago, on August 1, 2009 the Presidents of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as the CSTO Secretary General arrived in Kyrgyzstan for the summit while congratulating President Kurmanbek Bakiyev on his birthday and the re-election as a President of Kyrgyz Republic. At the same time, Moscow was preparing for a news war against the leadership of Kyrgyzstan and the advancement of economic pressure.
Despite the fact that according to Yulia Latynina,an expert in "Kremlin’s manners": "Incidentally, Bakiyev is our, Russian stooge. WhAkayev was overthrown, Bakiyev came to Moscow and the Kremlin made a bid on Bakiyev as the most shallow and weak rat in Kyrgyz politics.It was decided to teach him a lesson and to scare other Kyrgyz politicians. Then he was needed for important deals with Moscow."- said Latynina.
At the summit, Dmitry Medvedev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev signed the Russian-Kyrgyz "Memorandum of Intent" which revealed that prior to November 1, 2009 Moscow and Bishkek will prepare and sign an agreement on the status and conditions of Russian military base (ORVZ) in Kyrgyzstan. The agreement specified 49 years of stay with the possibility of automatic extension for the next 25 years period.
But on August 3, 2009 which is the first working day after the summit the Foreign Ministry of Uzbekistan issued a statement considering "unreasonable implementation of plans to deploy in the south of Kyrgyzstan an additional contingent of the Russian Armed Forces."
According to Tashkent, the deployment of additional Russian Armed Forces "can give impetus to the growing process of militarization and the excitation of various kinds of nationalist struggles, as well as the outbursts of radical extremist forces that could lead to serious destabilization in the vast region."
In the statement the Ferghana Valley was called the "hard-territory". Bakiyev signed the necessary documents and in principle was no longer needed. Fear and anger has intensified over Uzbekistan’s President Karimov’s position after the tragic events in southern Kyrgyzstan in July 2010 who stated that some third forces would draw Uzbekistan in the conflict.
On the nature of the policy of the Kremlin’s "duo" in the region referred to Yulia Latynina: "In its policy in Central Asia, as throughout the CIS, the Kremlin has been guided by a simple objective: to support any dictator and push any democracy out." - said Latynina.
But it needs clarification. Not every dictator and despot controlled.
So what is the true purpose of the CSTO, led by Russia? To prevent threats and conflicts or to create and inflate them?
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