Thursday, 15 July 2010
This week the Kyrgyz people were introduced to new unelected Ministers, replacing previously unelected Ministers, to guide them unto the Parliamentary Election in October. This confirms that Kyrgyzstan has now entered the election campaign proper. Given that the referendum legitimised Otunbayeva as president, all eyes were focused on the forthcoming parliamentary elections and the position of prime minister with enhanced powers.
Resignations and Appointments
At the beginning of this week none of the original four Deputy heads of the Interim Government remained in office. All four alongside, Otunbayeva had stated that those intending to contest the elections should resign their offices so that there would be no charges that could be levied accusing them and others of misusing their positions. Thus, the four men all resigned their offices to concentrate on the elections with Tekebaev heading the Ata-Meken (Fatherland), Sariev the Ak Shumkar (White Falcon), Atambaev the SDPK (Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan) and Beknazarov the BEK (United Peoples Movement) Party.
After the resignations, Otunbayeva remains the effective head of government and on Wednesday 14 July, she named the new list of Ministers she appointed. Amangeldy Muraliev was appointed as the First Vice Prime Minister of the Government. He had previously been appointed Prime Minister by President Akaev, serving in office from April 13, 1999 until December 21, 2000. Therefore, the responsibility for day to day running of the government will lie with the 63 year old Muraliev.
Another politician of the Akaev era, Alexander Kostyuk was also appointed as a Vice Prime Minister. Kostyuk had served as Minister of Agriculture until the overthrow of Akaev in 2005. Beknazarov when he took charge of the office of Prosecutor General after that particular overthrow had begun several investigations into fraud and corruption, one particular investigation looking into the abuse of power and large scale theft concerning the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry. The estimated amount added up to more than $1.3 million. Kostyuk has been appointed whilst the results of the criminal investigation have still yet to be publicised.
Such an appointment is quite unacceptable given the fact that Otunbayeva herself has on many occasions said that corruption should not be tolerated and a new era of clean politics has begun in Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, it is difficult to understand why there was no better candidate than Kostyuk, an individual who has yet to clear himself from fraud accusations, who served under Akaev. One must not forget that Otunbayeva herself also served under Akaev.
Uktomkhan Abdullaeva was appointed as another Vice Prime Minister, primarily responsible for Social Affairs. Abdullaeva also is a long-standing political figure having been appointed as the First Deputy Minister of Finance in December 1996 and in January1999, the First Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Welfare, all under President Akaev. Finally, during 2001-2007 she was the Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Protection of the Kyrgyz Republic.
The fourth Vice Prime Minister in the government of Kyrgyzstan to be appointed yesterday was Zhantoro Satybaldiev, who had led the Directorate on rebuilding the cities of Osh and Jalal-Abad. His remit whilst serving as Vice Prime Minister will be the responsibility for restoration of the southern regions affected by the violent ethnic clashes of last month.
South
As this appointment attests, it is still the south of the country that warrants attention; both domestic and international. To start from the latter, Special Assistant to the U.S. President for National Security Affairs, Michael McFaul declared in Bishkek on July 14th that one of the major challenges facing the Government of Kyrgyzstan is to create an atmosphere for reconciliation of the parties....and for this it is necessary to protect the rights of all citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic, regardless of their ethnicity. The Government, as it seems, has done a good and fair job to stabilize the situation. But there is still much work to enhance stability.
This is not the first, nor will it be the last time foreign countries will suggest an international investigation to take place sooner rather than later. Indeed this is good advice, as the government needs to know what went wrong in order to not repeat the same mistakes, and make the correct adjustments. So far the Kyrgyz government has acted slowly on this front. Whilst the U.S. official recommended reconciliation it was noteworthy that concerning the allegation of genocide, he preferred to withhold his comments stating: Let others decide, was it true or not.
Such a statement is a very unfortunate one as nobody can seriously accuse the Kyrgyz nation of having committed genocide. If this accusation was to have any meaning whatsoever, we should have witnessed the murder of ethnic Uzbeks in the streets of Bishkek. Whilst we still do not know the precise developments, provocations, reasons and factors underlying the events of last month, we can be certain that it was not genocide, as genocide entails a whole nation, ethnicity being put to the sword. That was not the case in the north, nor indeed in the south of the country as some Kyrgyz did try to protect their ethnically Uzbek fellow citizens. McFauls comment also will hurt the many Kyrgyz who lost their lives and livelihoods. One needs to remind oneself that the dead were not all Uzbek.
The draft constitution had stated in Article 10 paragraph 1, that the state language of the Kyrgyz Republic shall be the Kyrgyz language. The second paragraph noted In the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian language shall be used in the capacity of an official language. The third stated that The Kyrgyz Republic shall ensure that the representatives of all ethnicities which form the population of Kyrgyzstan have the right to preserve their native language as well as creation of conditions for its learning and development. One of the demands of the ethnic Uzbeks was to look into elevating the Uzbek language from the third to the second paragraph.
A tentative approach to this issue was witnessed on Tuesday, July 13th, with the recreation of a National Commission on the state language under President Otunbayeva. An official release mentioned that in order to improve the organization of the public authority on the development and strengthening the legal framework and to improve the constitutional status of the Kyrgyz language has been created the National Commission on the state language. The Commission together with the Ministry of Culture and Information are commissioned to develop and submit for approval the draft Regulations and the scheme of its administration in a month’s time. It is unlikely that Uzbek will join Russian as an official language. In fact, many, especially in the south of the country would prefer the state has one language of communication: Kyrgyz. That would entail the final page of the Soviet legacy being turned over, and a truly fresh, a truly Kyrgyz future to flourish.
Felix Kulov, leader of Ar-Namys Party, stated on July 14th at a roundtable entitled Challenges facing Kyrgyzstan: Elaboration of recommendations for Kyrgyz government. Plan of first priority, concrete activities for the following 100 days that the government should be reorganised with closer collaboration with particular international organisations. Kulov wanted to introduce in government an office of Vice-Prime-Minister for the South....in particular, we offer to establish, finally, order in the south of the republic. For that, it is necessary to reorganize the military units of the Ministry of Defence into dual-capable troops, so that they could repel not only external threats, but also act as gendarmes, if needed. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) should be approached to offer training for conflict prevention so that our potential opponents, who want to split the country, see that we are ready to parry a threat. It is not difficult to conduct trainings it will take a month for preparations, and they should be connected with airborne assault and anti-terrorist forces. Certainly security organisations can offer such trainings but it is noteworthy that only the CSTO was recommended. It is entirely feasible that NATO under its Partnership for Peace (PfP) program could look into such a venture. In fact McFaul had mentioned that the U.S stood ready to propose an initiative to include the OSCE police forces into the international forces to resolve the situation. Therefore, whilst Kulov is correct to draw attention to the issue of the south, the recommendations or solutions need not be entirely Russo-centric. It would be much better for international organisations with decades old experience to look into these matters rather than an organisation quickly put together just at the death of the Soviet Union to ensure the myth or desire of the Russian near abroad.
As for a Vice-Premier with direct responsibility for the south, this could set forth a dangerous precedent. If the nation and territory is indivisible, why is there a need for such an official position? The creation of such a post could very well elevate and accentuate demands for Uzbek autonomy in the south and put the territorial integrity of the unitary state at risk. The assumption must be and remain that all ministers work for the good of the country; irrespective of region or ethnic composition.
The chronic problem of the south was also voiced by Cholpon Dzhakupova, the head of Adilet a legal clinic at the same conference. She claimed that Kyrgyzstan had lost its south as there was no power in the south. But our men at that time are fighting for seats in the parties to go to parliament. The country is on the verge of collapse. But we are still in speculations whether we have the power or not? After the referendum, we now return to lawlessness. And it threatens Kyrgyzstan with transformation into a second Afghanistan.... I’m afraid for myself and my sons. The south is swallowed up in grief and despair, the country is on the verge of collapse and we are preparing for the elections. Her fear of an Afghan scenario is exaggerated, but it is true that the fear of a return to violence is very real in the south of the country, where gossip and hearsay sway opinions much more than the weak and ineffective media and press.
The issue of controlling the south has been an ongoing one ever since April 7th, as the region was considered to be the bedrock of political support for Bakiev. Once again the solution to this difficult dilemma is political courage. An effective and international inquiry desperately needs to be set up to investigate what really did happen after June 11th. Answers must be provided to who did what, when, why and how?
Making unfair accusations of genocide amongst Turkic peoples perhaps demonstrates ignorance of history or wilful manipulation and misrepresentation of the present political situation. Just as there are victims, there are also culprits and it is the responsibility and moral duty of the state to identify and bring those criminals to justice. If this can be done quickly, then the south will become less of a tinder box. Although the old adage of justice must not only be done, but must be seen to be done is very apt now. The public at large, and those especially in the south, need to witness the process in order to lend their trust to the authorities.
Elections
Having a whole host of new unelected Ministers, attention has naturally turned to potential Prime Ministers. One of the strongest candidates, Temir Sariev made a prediction by stating that it was most likely, the new parliament will form a coalition government in Kyrgyzstan.... there will be different parties, their different configurations....It will be difficult for one party to take the majority of mandates. Therefore, political organizations will need to create coalitions and form a coalition government. He believes that more than ten parties will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections, but only five or six parties will be elected to the Zhogorku Kenesh. Sariev kept the door open to joining a coalition after the October elections. Sarievs statement is a very realistic and pragmatic statement given the fact that the election is still almost three months away.
Despite this fact there are still clouds hanging over whether the election will actually be held in the autumn. Murat Suyunbayev, a political analyst, declared that he could find no sense in postponement of the date for parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan...deferring to a later date of the elections, for example, for the spring, will not change the situation....they say that people have plenty of weapons and it is simply dangerous to hold elections in such circumstances....you must first disarm the people. But this can be done in the remaining three months, I suppose. All of these assertions continue to be raised but there is no case for holding the elections after October. Firstly, the government still lacks legitimacy given the fact that the Ministers have not been elected. Secondly, that the Zhogorku Kenesh was dissolved in April not by the will of the people, but by the interim leadership. Delaying the voice of the people will acerbate the already tense political atmosphere. Thirdly, in a related point, the promise of a parliamentary system has been made ad infinatum, implementing that promise has become a vital matter of trust between the people and the political leadership.
Tekebaev is one of the many party leaders (according to him there are more than forty other leaders) that definitely wants the elections to be held in October. At a press conference he accepted that some alterations will be introduced for the parliamentary elections, the most important of which would be the extension of the period of announcement of elections from 75 to 90 days.
He further stated on July 13th that at the upcoming parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan, electors will have a right to vote by place of residence. This is quite an important development given the fact that in all previous elections, many citizens have not been able to vote, since they resided in places where they were not registered. Bishkek, being a magnet for internal migration has been estimated to have disenfranchised more than 100,000 citizens due to this. Whilst this figure may not seem important, it must be recalled that less than two million voted in last months referendum, therefore, those estimated to have been disenfranchised stand at almost 5% of the electors, not an insignificant number.
A final amendment to previous election rules focused on a minimum 500,000 soms ($10,600) for registration of political parties and 50 million soms ($1.6 million) being set as the limit for election expenses. The Head of the Central Elections Committee, Akylbek Sariev stated on July 14th that most parties are complaining because they cannot collect such an amount....but nobody forces them to do it. They may contribute even 5 soms to the fund. How they attract voters is their business. This has brought to the forefront an important dilemma facing all democracies, whether they are established ones such as the UK, or emerging democracies such as Kyrgyzstan: that of political party funding.
One can already witness on the streets of Bishkek and on national television channels, political advertising. The roadside billboards which displayed recommendations for voting yes in the referendum are being replaced by advertisements for political parties. Needless to say these are not free. We still have no clear idea of how the referendum advertising was funded, most likely it was from state coffers, which means that the referendum campaign was neither free nor fair nor independent from state interference. Therefore, campaign finance is a vital issue both in Kyrgyzstan and elsewhere. In this instance Sariev is quite correct, despite the fact that many political parties will enter the election, not all of them will make it to Parliament. To use an athletics metaphor, there may be dozens of athletes competing in the race but only half a dozen may get to cross the finish line. The reason will be simple, just as an athlete needs energy and stamina, so does a political party require television, radio, newspaper, billboard advertising and endorsements; none of which can be attained without large injections of cash.
Some political parties will easily be able to raise a million or so dollars but these will be few and far between. Local, especially rural parties will be at a considerable disadvantage and will in the end have to seriously consider political alliances to enter parliament. Well-established and or well-funded parties such as Ata-Meken, Ak Shumkar, Social Democratic, Communist parties are highly likely to do well in the election, whereas, especially newly formed parties will face an uphill struggle.
This is an unfortunate development given the fact that the interim government had made clear that a new political era had begun with them, and that the old regime confined to history. There are charismatic and financially less fortunate leaders such as Azimbek Beknazarov on the political scene putting forward their suggestions and policies, but so far followers of Kyrgyz politics are witnessing the powerful and financially astute old parties having a better chance to hold onto the levers of political power. Having said this, however, there is still a long time to go before October 10. Who knows, perhaps the Kyrgyz electorate will listen to a politician preferring to speak in Kyrgyz, rather than Russian?
-----
Dr. Sureyya Yigit
Founding Director - Social Science Research Centre,
Lecturer in International Relations,
Director - International Office
International Ataturk Alatoo University
Tel: (+996 312) 63 14 23/24/25/26 ext:170
Challenging Chinaphobia in East Asia
