Saturday, 10 July 2010
The late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is noted for saying a week is a long time in politics and this is certainly true in the case of Kyrgyz politics. It has been a week since Kyrgyzstan inaugurated its third president in its post-Soviet history. The Constitutional referendum that was accepted on June 27th stipulated that the current interim president Roza Otunbayeva would serve as a legitimate head of state until 31 December 2011, without the right to stand again for that position. The referendum result has therefore, served the function of demarcating the periods when de facto power was in the hands of Otunbayeva and fellow politicians and de jure power now, which is only within the grasp of Otunbayeva. It also paved the way for parliamentary elections in the autumn. Whilst achieving all this, there are half a dozen challenges that need to be met.
Conflict & Reconciliation
The first stems from the referendum not being able to shed light on the reasons for the enormous loss of life that took place in the south of the country last month. Whilst visiting Bishkek, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration, Schwartz supported the necessity of conducting an international impartial investigation which would help restore justice and serve as contribution to reconciliation between people. The European Parliament similarly called on the Kyrgyz authorities to immediately conduct independent investigation of reasons of the recent interethnic clashes in the country. MEPs were concerned about the strength of criminal networks, especially the drug-smugglers in the southern part of the country.
Rumours are a dime a dozen with regard to motives, perpetrators and hidden agendas, hence, this is the most pressing issue that is facing the Kyrgyz nation today. The international community is also pressuring the Kyrgyz side to urgently look into this matter. The government, however, has still not demonstrated the resolve to steadfastly hold a prompt and comprehensive inquiry.
Corruption
Secondly, the insidious face of corruption is ever present. Days after the referendum several cargo companies wrote a complaint to the General Prosecutors Office with Elmira Soodonbekova, a director of a cargo company stating at the press-conference that after the April events we dont give bribes to representatives of control agencies on principle.... If the interim government doesnt pay attention on lawlessness in business then many people will stop working while others will continue to work in favour of the vicious Bakiyev system. She expressed the view that cargo companies had hoped that after the April events, the business environment would have improved, and that their expectations have not been realised. Such views can be heard in many sectors in the country and highlight the fact that corruption remains an endemic and acute problem.
Several developments further highlighted this issue. One was the resignation of Elmira Ibraimova, the Coordinator of the Interim Government of Kyrgyzstan on social policy. She made a highly critical and damaging statement advising that there should be formed a new government for the transition period, composed of individuals selected not by the principle of loyalty to the president, but those whose professionalism and honesty is not in doubt.
Secondly, the Public Prosecutors office announced that the former Minister of Transport and Communications, Nurlan Sulaimanov, had made a confession and was actively cooperating with their investigation into abuse of position and the misuse of budgetary funds. This confirmed that Ministers had stolen from the public purse.
Thirdly, the Deputy Head of the Interim Government Azimbek Beknazarov declared at a press conference that In Kyrgyzstan judges still follow the malpractice of making decisions after consultations with the authorities.... even now in spite of the change of power they continue to make calls to the members of the interim government for consultations about final judgments. ... I am scolding judges for that. We have to stop such malpractice. He further announced that We are going to dismiss fifty more judges. This will become a lesson for those who are working or want to be judges. This once more highlights the problem of the rule of law and corruption that Kyrgyzstan still continues to face, and must overcome if it is to establish itself as a parliamentary democracy.
Security Russian base
The third issue concerns military relations. The Russian Federation has a military base in Kant, approximately 20 kilometers outside of Bishkek. Russian President Medvedev and the then Kyrgyz President Bakiyev had signed a memorandum in August 2009 on the opening of a Russian training center for Russian and Kyrgyz soldiers and the deployment of additional troops who were to operate in Kyrgyzstan under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia planned to unite all its military facilities in Kyrgyzstan into a United Russian Military Base which would include the airbase in Kant, a new training center, and some smaller facilities. An agreement detailing all of these had been scheduled to be prepared for by the end of 2009, however, that deadline was not met and with the fall of Bakiyev in April 2010 the issue was off the agenda.
On July 1st, the CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha stated that talks on the issue could be renewed as the creation of the base was possible considering the new Kyrgyz authorities had pledged to maintain the previous government’s policies towards Russia, but that the decision would "depend on the stabilization of the situation in Kyrgyzstan" and could be made after the situation improved.
Concerning the issue of creating a new Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan’s south , the acting Kyrgyz Foreign Minister declared that "No official negotiations are currently being held on the issue, but it remains relevant today". Hence the Kyrgyz-Russian military relationship issue is being elevated on the agenda of Moscow, which is leading to speculation in Kyrgyzstan. Will this new base go ahead or will a clear refusal be given?
Food
Ever since the Russians declared a higher customs duty on petrol starting in April, effectively increasing prices by 30%, fears have been prevalent over crop production. Farmers simply could not afford to buy fuel for their agricultural machinery. The interim government stated the obvious by saying that they were waiting for Moscows confirmation about sending of 20,000 tons of diesel...so far crops have been harvested on nine thousand hectares. We have sent several thousand tons of fuel to the regions at a reduced price. Despite the state subsidy for harvesting which permits diesel to be bought at 31 Soms per litre, where the average cost ranges between 36-45 Soms, farmers face an uphill struggle as fuel prices are rising and customs duties for fuel export have increased threefold. This means that food prices will very likely be higher in the autumn and winter. A pressing concern for the Kyrgyz poor numbering in the hundreds of thousands.
Customs Union
Russias Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that Kyrgyzstan was considering joining the Customs Union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Only two days after her inauguration President Otunbayeva confirmed by saying "We intend to enter the Customs Union. We must correlate all conditions taking into consideration mutual benefit for both sides....being a member of the WTO Kyrgyzstan has established an expert group for studying the terms of its accession to the Customs Union". According to the Kyrgyz economist Zhumakadyr Akeneev Kyrgyzstan has to join the customs union otherwise We will achieve isolation. Two biggest markets Dordoy in Bishkek and Kara-Suu in Osh region, sources of primary profit, will close....so the initiative of joining the Custom Union voiced at EurAsEC session comes in handy. This has become an issue of debate amongst academics if not the public at large. It remains to be seen to what extent it will become a prominent election issue during the campaign.
Postponement of Parliamentary Elections
The date of the election is set for October 10th, but Dinara Oshurakhunova, the chairman of the coalition For Democracy and Civil Society believes it ought to be postponed. She asserted that Our party leaders do not only have political but also basic cultural values. How could they speak about holding peaceful elections? Taking into account that some political parties have large arsenals of weapons. Outlining the elections for October, the interim government did not suspect that there will be bloody tragic events in the south. So now in order to avoid an escalation we need to postpone the election. The fact that so many arms are in the hands of the public in the south of the country is a very credible fear. Given that the deputy head of the interim government Atambaev as well as ex-State Secretary Sarygulov both stated that the country had come to the verge of war and collapse in June, the threat of violence is a real one. Despite reconciliation being far from achieved it is not plausible to oppose holding parliamentary elections in October, especially after having held the referendum on June 27th, when the wounds were fresh.
Wanted: Honesty
Therefore, Kyrgyzstan has endured a fairly uneventful week under the authority of President Otunbayeva. Though the country still faces and needs to find acceptable and practical solutions to the questions and problems of reconciliation, corruption, external security arrangements, food production, entering a customs union and holding elections in October. None of these issues are going to go away easily or quickly, in fact some of them have been around longer than the Kyrgyz state! Nevertheless, efforts must be directed at finding ways to untie these seemingly intractable knots. This will involve tough choices which must be made with clear consciences and clean hands. Finding such a combination of character traits in the upper echelons of the Kyrgyz political elite is as difficult a task as the problems the nation faces.
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Dr. Sureyya Yigit
Founding Director - Social Science Research Centre,
Lecturer in International Relations,
Director - International Office
International Ataturk Alatoo University
Tel: (+996 312) 63 14 23/24/25/26 ext:170
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