Tuesday, 2 March 2010
The long wait for a large scale offensive by the US and NATO-Led forces in Taliban stronghold of the city of Marjah, in the south of Afghanistans Helmands province was long due since the Taliban fell in 2001. The Marjah region is said to be the capitol of the Taliban movement and there is an estimated 2000 Taliban fighters and foreign fighters in the region. The US, Afghan and NATO led offensive forces totaling some 6,000 troops is combating the Taliban insurgency. Although the Afghan military is part of the offensive, trained by the US military, the US Marines are in the front lines taking control of the operations assisted only by the Afghan military and NATO forces. The coalition forces must now deal with the Taliban insurgents who are well trained and prepared for such an offensive. The long wait has given the Taliban time and space to conduct their guerrilla warfare tactics that the Soviet Union failed to realize during which the Mujahedeen groups defeated the Soviet Union with a devastating blow with the war ending in February of 1989.
Misconceptions of the Taliban being all insurgents and terrorist should be addressed carefully not to indict the majority of the movement who may not be part of the insurgency or terrorist operations. The Taliban is a Sunni Islamist political movement within Afghanistan that practices extremist religious ideologies that have taken Afghanistan back to the old ages after the defeat of the Communist ruled regime and the then Soviet Unions invasion of 1979. The current Afghan government, lead by Hamid Karzai, had given the Taliban an alternative measure to lay down their weapons and be part of the Afghan nation. This plan will include measures to address the Taliban and to assimilate them back into society without disbanding the Taliban movement. This has so far been rejected by the Taliban who wish to take control and to implement their religious ideologies that are extreme and deviant from the teachings of Islam. The Taliban has been noted to practice the strictest interpretations of the Sharia laws in the Muslim World.
In 2001 after the 911 bombings in New York, the US launched massive strikes against Al Qaedas terrorist training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The strikes were to disrupt the use of Afghanistan as a terrorist base and end the Taliban rule that supported Al Qaeda and protected Osama Bin Laden. It is during that time that the US Special Operations Forces, the A Team of the Green Berets were deployed to hunt down Osama Bin Laden. The Northern Alliance, once a minority group operating against the Taliban regime became a forerunner in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. One of the many leaders in the struggles with the Taliban is non other than Hamid Karzai himself, who headed the Pashtun resistance who joined the Northern Alliance to fight the Taliban. His bond with the Green Berets would be deep and lasting during the times where he was part of the A Team acting as a non combatant and assisting the US led Special Forces and being a bridge between the communities involved in the war.
The Taliban, linked closely to Al Qaeda operates structurally within their governing bodies and as such their militia is well trained and is capable of a full scale guerilla warfare. The Helmand province is their stronghold and this is where the Taliban will stand to defend and fight against the coalition forces. The mountainous region of Tora Bora, where once Bin Laden took refuge covers vast region of the country. The rugged terrain and narrow passes makes it difficult for military forces to conduct operations. The landscape of these mountains and region are so well protected by the environment that it is virtually impossible to locate enemy insurgents such as the Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. This will be the Talibans last Fort to hide and keep low if they are defeated in the Majrah offensive and will regroup the remnants of its forces.
The Afghan Taliban is known to be living and operating together with Pakistani Taliban in the Peshawar region as well, and this could create more of a spill over effect of Afghan Talibans crossing over to Pakistan for refuge. It must be noted that the origins of the Afghan Talibans are clergy men from Pakistan. If a retreat is foresee, the Taliban will have the opportunity to review their failures, besides making preparations to continue their armed struggle and to realize their ultimate objective of setting up a Taliban controlled regime. The current US NATO offensive has also encouraged more support from terrorist organizations internationally such as Al Qaeda and its affiliates from the Middle East, North Asia and Asia to join and support the fight with its Taliban counterparts.
There is no doubt that the US coalition forces will see casualties in the early days of the offensive as the Taliban have laid explosives mines, booby traps and wired the operational sites with IEDs. As much as the US explosive teams are on the ground to detect these mines there is the element of surprise that awaits the coalition forces. The US coalition forces must remember that the Taliban will use guerilla warfare tactics to counter the offensive. This is something that most militaries will encounter when launching such offensives with non-conventional militia. The Taliban will use all measures to counter the offensive and this will include civilians as well as children to act as human shields. The Taliban will use coordinated attacks and direct the assault units within the province and they may counter attack where allied forces are not operating and are less noticeable. The element of surprise can be related to the TET offensive where the North Vietnamese coordinated multiple attacks on the Americans.
The mountainous region of Afghanistan and the training grounds of Al Qaeda have provided sanctuary for the Taliban to conduct their trainings before infiltrating into the masses in the country. The Taliban will use its respite as an opportunity to strengthen ties with the local population for support. This can be detrimental for the US coalition forces as they will reoccupy their previous bases. If the defeats are constant from the US coalition forces the Taliban may change their strategy and avoid direct contacts with the military. This will be very detremental as the Taliban will infiltrate into the interior and counter attack. The Taliban may intensify militant attacks on the Security Forces through assault units in the interior. Through their underground elements the Taliban can re-emerge in their areas of operations.
It is known in guerilla warfare, insurgents are well equipped in their supplies and their spying units are able to get food and medical supplies and to collect information on security forces activities operating in their backyard. The main support for guerilla warfare is its people and resources and the US coalition forces must be able to counter it. Countermeasures by the US coalition forces should include resettlement of non Taliban fighters and civilians living in the area so as to protect those forced to assist the Taliban. This will disrupt the Taliban supply system and hence force the Taliban to face the security forces from the US coalition. Recruitment avenues will also be harder for the Taliban to continue as this will annex their resources.
To counter the Talibans threats, the US coalition forces must draw up effective strategies and operational concepts to check and counter the resurgence of any form of the Taliban. Such strategies on preventing the infiltration of fighters from abroad should also be part of the offensive and restricting the activities of the Taliban assault units within the captured areas. The strategy should also include the Pakistan Afghanistan boarder and having the Pakistani troops cooperate with the US NATO-Led offensive. The framework should include counter insurgency strategy such as operations and search and destroy operations.
The operations framework should monitor settlements, safe guarding vital targets, protecting civilians and non combatant Talibans, reconstruction, preventing supply of goods from reaching the Taliban insurgents and its affiliates assault units and coordinating boarder checking for smuggling of controlled items and the entry of foreign fighters along the Pakistan Afghanistan boarder. A cohesive strategy should be incorporated in the interest of the larger Afghan community for a safer and peaceful means to ending the conflict. The NATO strategy of Clear, Hold and Build is similar to the strategy defined above and NATO should promote this campaign in its establishment for a peaceful resolution. Further to this, the US NATO-Led forces should transitionally hand over the power to the Afghan forces and hence the Afghan government for control over the region. Winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan people will eventually bring peace to Afghanistan.
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Andrin Raj (andrin.raj@stratad.net) is Director for Centre for Stratad Asia Pacific Strategic Centre (SAPSC)-Counter Terrorism & Security Analyst and Director for Chapter-SEA Regional HQ for the International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals. He was a Visiting Fellow at the Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA) 2008-09.He is also one of the founding members of the Turkish Think Tank Dialogue (TOD TURKEY) of the Turkish Asian Center For Strategic Studies (TASAM) and part of the Think Tank Forum of the Organization of Islamic Countries based in Istanbul, Turkey. He is a Visiting Lecturer at the Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia and Lectures at the Monash University, Malaysia campus. He has currently been appointed the Deputy Head of the Defense and Security Committee of the European Union Malaysia Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Malaysia. The views expressed are of his own and does not reflect those of SAPSC, IACSP, TOD TURKEY, IDFR, MONASH UNI., TASAM, JIIA or the EUMCI.
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