Wednesday, 10 February 2010
Ukraine, which drew attention during the Orange Revolution, is once again a hot topic with the presidential elections that take place ever five years. The first runoff of the first election since the Orange Revolution took place on 17 January. Because none of the candidates won more than 50% of the votes, the new president of the Ukraine was declared after the second round of the elections on 7 February. According to the Central Election Committee of Ukraine, the leader of the Party of Regions, Victor Yanukovych, received 48.61% of votes in the second round of the presidential elections and the Prime Minister, Yulia Timoshenko, 45.72%.[1]The process of summarizing the second round of the presidential elections will come to an end within 10 days, by February 17. The new president will assume the post within a month after the announcement of the results of the elections.
To bear in mind, during the November 21 presidential runoff of the 2004 elections Yushchenko won 49 % of the votes, compared to Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich’s 46 %. Over the next 17 days, through harsh cold and sleet, millions of Ukrainians staged nationwide nonviolent protests that came to be known as the "Orange Revolution”. Due to the corruption of the elections, the elections were repeated. As a result of the repeated election Yushchenko was presented as the new President of Ukraine.
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Ukraine is divided not only geographically but also ethically and religiously. Pro-Russian Yanukovich was supported by the eastern part of the country, while Yushchenko was supported by the Ukrainian speaking west. Due to this division western Ukraine was in an uproar over claims of election tampering, while eastern Ukraine was celebrating the victory of Yanukovich. Indeed, this division of Ukraine is apparent in one of the surveys that focus on the perceptions of the Orange Revolution. According to this survey, which was conducted in 2005, 58,2% of western Ukraine evaluated the Orange Revolution as a conscious struggle by the people for their rights, and only 5,8% of them perceived it as a coup d’état supported by the West. On the other hand, eastern Ukraine dominantly perceived the Orange Revolution as the latter.[2] Since the Orange Revolution was mainly presented as a struggle between Russia and the US over Ukraine, the country not only brought those two powers face to face but also paved the way for discourse about a second cold war. Considering past experiences, Ukraine’s presidential elections process was followed by the different parties.
In the first presidential election since the 2004 Orange Revolution, Mr.Yanukovich won 35% of the vote, according to exit polls. Ms Timoshenko came second with 25%, about 5 percentage points more than had been indicated by pre-election opinion polls. After the 7February turnoff, the picture has not changed. However, this was not surprising. Experts were already expecting Yanukovich to win. This is simply because Timoshenko was one of the politicians that was involved in the 2008 economic crisis and was responsible for the country’s chaotic political system. Indeed, the inflation rate in 2008 was 25,2%, while it has been 16,5 % in 2009.[3]
According to the OSCE, Ukraine’s presidential election was of high quality and showed significant progress over previous elections, meeting most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments, concluded the international election observation mission in a statement. Moreover, US state department spokesman Mark Toner also congratulated all Ukrainians with the decided elections. Mr.Toner said that the presidential election in Ukraine was held according to all the standards of democracy.[4]
Why Ukraine Matters to Russia
The importance of Ukraine for Russia is unquestionable since it has historical as well as cultural ties. For many of the Russians, Ukraine and Ukrainians are almost a part of them. According to Nikolai Travkin, Russia’s relations with Ukraine should be different from any other country due to historical necessity.[5] Moreover, there also are writers who suggest that Ukraine should be part of Russia.
In evaluating why Ukraine matters to Russia, a number of factors stick out. First of all, Ukraine is being evaluated as a part of the great Slavic state of Russia.[6] The second factor drawing attention is Russia’s sensitivity about its dominance in the Black Sea. Indeed, Ukraine’s Black Sea coast covers more than half of the Northern part of Black Sea. From this standpoint, according to Moscow, losing Ukraine would pave the way to reducing Russia’s supremacy which lasted more than three centuries in the Black Sea region. On the other hand, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is located in the Crimean city of Sevastopol.The fleet uses a range of naval facilities in Ukraine’s Crimea as part of a 1997 agreement, under which Ukraine agreed to lease the bases to Russia until 2017.
As Ukraine means so much to Russia, Russia’s attitude during the elections in Ukraine is worth mentioning. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced on August 2009 that he was holding off sending Russia’s new ambassador to Ukraine over Kiev’s anti-Russian policies. Eventhough the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had already approved the appointment of former health minister Mikhail Zurabov to the post, Medvedev was told that the timing of Zurabov’s arrival would be determined later, depending on the development of bilateral ties.The right time for the Kremlin was after the first round of the elections. Indeed, after it was clear that Yushchenko would not be one of the candidates for the second turnoff, and both Yanukovich and Timoshenko are comparatively more close to Moscow, Kremlin announced that the new Ambassador would start to work. For Russia it can be explained by considering that neither Yanukovich nor Timoshenko use the discourse against Russia.
As the surveys carried out before the elections showed, the Orange Revolution is over. With the new President in Ukraine, Yanukovich, who has plans to make Russian second official language, Ukraine would probably move closer to Russia.
Habibe Ozdal, USAK Russia and Black Sea Studies
[1] “В президентской гонке на Украине лидирует Виктор Янукович”, Kоммерсантъ, http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1318438, for the surveys that being done between May 2009- January 2010 see also; Eurasianhome, http://eurasianhome.org/xml/t/topics.xml?lang=ru&nic=topics&topic=68.
[2] Viktor Stepanenko, “How Ukrainians View Their Orange Revolution: Public Opinion and the National Peculiarities of Citizenry Political Activities”, Demokratizatsiya, s. 600.
[3] CIA Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html.
[4] “Ukraine’s presidential election meets most international commitments”, OSCE, http://www.osce.org/item/42384.html, “US considered Ukrainian presidential elections to be democratic”, Globalist, http://globalist.org.ua/eng/144776-us-considered-ukrainian-presidential-elections-to-be-democratic.
[5] Nikolai Travkin, “Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe”, ed. Stephen Sestanovich, Rethinking Russia’s National Interests (Washington DC; Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1994), s. 36.
[6] Paul Kubicek, “Russian Foreign Policy and the West”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No: 4, s. 557.
Turkey-Japan Relations: The Need to Think Beyond Trade
