written by Salih Dogan printable version send your friend

Friday, 22 January 2010

This article was firstly published in USAK Yearbook of International Politics and Law, Vol. 3, 2010, pp. 539-543

Afghanistan held a presidential election on August 20^th. This was the second "democratic election"� for the Afghani people to elect their president since 2001. It was up to the Afghani people whether to elect current President Hamid Karzai for a second term or to make a new beginning with a new president. It was crucially important for Afghanistan to have a free and fair election, which was hoped to lead to stability and security in Afghanistan, and even in Central Asia and the entire region. However, it could not be achieved.[1]

On October 20, two-months after the presidential elections, the Independent Election Commission in Afghanistan declared that a run-off would take place in Afghanistan because none of the candidates were able to receive more than 50% of the votes. It didn’t work out and the run-off of the Afghanistan presidential election, which was supposed to be carried out on November 7th, was cancelled due to Dr. Abdullah’s statement of his withdrawal. As the main reason of his withdrawal from run-off, Dr. Abdullah declared that if the director of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) kept his position there would be no chance for a free and fair election.

As a result of Dr. Abdullah’s withdrawal, former president Hamid Karzai has earned his second five-year presidential term in Afghanistan. On November 19, Hamid Karzai was sworn in for his second term as Afghan president with the participation of nearly 40 countries’ foreign ministers and over 150 diplomats. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu were among the participants who showed their support to Hamid Karzai.      

Karzai came to the inauguration with his traditional green kaftan and kalpak, and delivered his 5-year goals during his speech. Here are some of the issues and his solutions that he mentioned in his speech:

-       Corruption;

-       Use of all domestic and international sources to end the war in Afghanistan;

-       Afghan Army and Afghan Police taking over all the responsibilities within two years and ending the activities of all special security agencies.

Besides these, Hamid Karzai stated that Afghanistan got one step closer to democratic values (!) with this election and urged Dr. Abdullah, who accused him of being part of the corruption within the state and withdrew from the runoff, to move with his administration. Karzai also called on the groups that were not involved in international terrorism to return home. Even his statements saying that they could talk with the Taliban if it is needed for the security of Afghanistan were reported in the news.

How about what he said during the first inauguration on December 7, 2004 as the winner of the first democratic election[2] in Afghanistan which was held on October 9, 2004?[3] What Karzai said to the Afghani people and the international community who followed his first inauguration was almost same as his speech today: to provide security and stability in the region, to stop poppy cultivation and drug trafficking, to provide government services to the people living in rural areas, and to put the rule of law into practice. That is to say, we see that the Karzai administration wasn’t able to fulfill its promises during the first five years.[4] Even though he was able to say ""� we had contributions to fight with our common enemy of terrorism; however, our struggle with it hasn’t ended yet,"� five years ago, Karzai does not have the courage to say similar words today. Of course there are very different reasons for this. One of the most important reasons is the Taliban’s gradually increasing strength in the region especially after 2006. The toll of the casualties of NATO troops and U.S. soldiers have been increasing for a long time and the monthly casualties are the highest this year since 2001.  

Pointing to President Karzai as the only culprit for all these failures would not be fair for sure. The presidential election ended 3 months after the people went to the polls. When we take this fact into consideration, it is possible to understand how wounded the mechanism, the so-called state, is. We could also understand that the Taliban has increasingly gained power in the meantime from the commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan Stanley McChrystal’s report claims that the U.S. would lose the war unless at least 40,000 troops were added to the troops in Afghanistan. He has also warned that if the Obama administration would not send new troops to Afghanistan, there is no chance for the U.S. to win this war, which has been going on for more than 8 years.

Following Karzai’s oath-taking ceremony, the world has turned its face to Obama for his announcement regarding the Afghanistan decision. It was reported that none of the four options that were brought to the table at a meeting of the national security team by the three top-level advisers (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, General Mike Mullen, and U.S. Defense Minister Robert Gates) of President Obama on the Afghanistan issue was accepted. Soon after the meeting it was reported that the decision regarding the Afghanistan strategy would be announced during the week following Thanksgiving Day. The four options offered to Obama included increasing the number of troops from 10,000 to 40,000. However, President Obama has issued an order to prepare different plans including the withdrawal strategy as well as the increase of number of troops.

On December 1, in his speech "On the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan"� in the Military Academy at West Point, President Obama said ""� And as Commander-in-Chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan."� Obama also made an explanation regarding the strategy of withdrawal from Afghanistan and declared that the U.S. troops will begin returning home in 18 months (by July 2011). Obama needed to declare a date of withdrawal with the new Afghanistan strategy to regain the public support that he lost while facing problems in the domestic politics. The deployment of the reinforcement troops in Afghanistan is being planned to end by July 2010. That does mean that only 12 months after the deployment of all 30,000 troops in Afghanistan, the U.S. troops will begin to withdraw (in July 2011).  

There is not too much conflict between the issues that President Hamid Karzai expressed in his presidential oath and Obama’s Afghanistan-related statements. Indeed, Karzai’s statements in regard to transferring all of the responsibilities of security companies in Afghanistan to the Afghan Army and Afghan Police in a period of two years are parallel to Obama’s statements. They both express that they pay attention to the training of Afghan army and Afghan police, and will make an effort to increase the numbers of these two units. Currently there are almost 100,000 Afghan soldiers and a 100,000 Afghan police on duty. With the summation of the NATO and U.S. special forces over 100,000 troops, we could say that approximately 300,000 security forces are responsible for security within the borders of the country. "... This burden is not ours alone to bear. This is not just America’s war,"� Barack Obama said during his speech at West Point. Following Obama’s speech, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen showed his support to Obama’s new strategy and said in a statement that NATO countries will send at least 5000 troops to Afghanistan (This figure later rose to 7000).  

Karzai stated in his 5-year plan during his speech that they were targeting the Afghan army and Afghan police to control everything related to security issues. Obama’s reference to beginning the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 18 months and the training of Afghan army very often shows that Karzai and Obama are on the same page. The plan seems to be drawn very well, but the scenario is established in favor of the United States and NATO if everything happens as they wish. The question that needs to be asked at this point is that isn’t one of the ways in which the Taliban gradually gain power is that they are able to recapture fronts after the U.S. and NATO forces leave without providing a secure atmosphere after clearing the region of Taliban? So, if we have a case in favor of the Taliban at the end of the 18-month period (by July 2011) will we have to wait for Obama to declare that new troops will be sent to Afghanistan again?

To avoid such a situation the biggest responsibility is on the shoulders of Hamid Karzai and his administration. Obama addressed the Afghan people in his speech and said, "America has no interest in fighting an endless war in Afghanistan. We have no interest in occupying your country."� Karzai and his team have to learn their lessons from the mistakes they have made during the first 5-year presidential term and need to understand Obama’s speech very well. The success in Afghanistan cannot be realized despite of the president. Yet, the support of the president is inadequate for a certain success. All in all, the president of the more than 30 million Afghani people is Karzai, not Obama. 

Salih Dogan

USAK Center for Security Studies

sdogan@usak.org.tr & salihdogan52@gmail.com

This article was firstly published in USAK Yearbook of International Politics and Law, Vol. 3, 2010, pp.