written by Arzu Turgut printable version send your friend

Thursday, 14 January 2010

Contrary to expectations, Azerbaijan and Turkey have failed to sign a protocol in order to cancel the visa regime. According to a few sources, this agreement was not signed due to some technical reasons, incomplete procedural issues and bureaucratic problems. However, beyond this unexpected result, the issue is not only about abolishing the visa regime between these countries which have strong cultural, historical and linguistic bonds. In addition to this, the latest developments in the Caucasus and the major powers’ aims in the region seem to raise obstacles to the advancement of relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan within this context. In this sense, this event needs a deep understanding considering the dynamics and states’ interests of the region.

One trying to grasp the happenings in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the energy sphere, should see the whole picture considering all major powers’ interests and purposes. After the Russian- Georgian War, the U.S wanted to attract Armenia towards the Western bloc. Above all, the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia was vital to this aim. The West pressed Turkey to stimulate these ‘normal’ relations. As a result, a ‘road map’ came into existence to begin diplomatic negotiations between Turkey and Armenia. However, in addition to the claims of the so-called Armenian Genocide by the Diaspora, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and invasion of Azerbaijani territories by Armenian forces also remained important obstacles to the improvement of relations. The most important risk for Turkey is that this could jeopardize the relations with its ‘brother’ country, Azerbaijan. If Turkey and Armenia reach a solution via the protocols regardless of Azerbaijan’s demands and expectations over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, this could create resentment that could deteriorate Turkey-Azerbaijani relations on the Azerbaijani side. In fact, Azerbaijan felt left out and declared its aloneness in its cause in face of Turkey’s ‘road map’ with Armenia. On the other hand, the worsening of relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey and the future of Azerbaijan in the Eastern orbit will serve the interests of another major power in the region, Russia.

Gazprom of Russia and State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) agreed to two major natural gas deals. Azerbaijan certainly seeks to diversify its energy routes and partners as the Central Asian countries aim to do. However, energy is a crucial issue in this region in the eyes of both the West and the East. The energy policy shift of Azerbaijan seems to be political rather than based on a simple energy contract. It signifies the reality to push Azerbaijan towards the Russian energy sphere on which the West is reluctant to become dependent. In this sense, the Nabucco Project, which plan to bring gas from the Caspian region through Georgia, Turkey and into Europe in order to decrease dependency on Russia, seems to be in serious peril. Russia’s South Stream Project which aims to deliver Russian gas to Europe via the Black Sea and Bulgaria can be a strong alternative to the region. The latest agreements between Russia and Azerbaijan raise questions and fears about the Azerbaijan’s shift towards Moscow’s orbit and the fate of the EU’s Nabucco gas pipeline. This situation is certainly detrimental for Turkey’s energy and regional politics.

In addition to these developments, SOCAR also signed an agreement with the National Iranian Gas Export Company on the Azerbaijani gas delivery to the Northern provinces of Iran. Furthermore, Iran, which has many ethnic Azerbaijanis in its territories, declared some unilateral regulations to lift the visa regime for Azerbaijanis although Azerbaijan is not eager to take steps on this issue.

For the future of the international system, stability is a more favoured concept in the world. William J. Burns, an American diplomat under the US Secretary for Political Affairs, said in a conference at Georgetown University that “a more stable and prosperous Azerbaijan promises a more stable and prosperous Caucasus. A strong US-Azerbaijan partnership is more important today than before.” He highlights the need for a strong cooperation between Azerbaijan and the US in the field of security, energy, economic and democratic reform. The fact remains that the US is eager to make promises for the well-being of Azerbaijan through aids, investments and encouraging reforms. On the other side, the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is a very sensitive matter for Azerbaijani politics. Although the US supports the historic steps taken by both the Turkish and Armenian governments in order to normalize relations, it also tries not to alienate Azerbaijan on this issue. However, the deeds and words of the US do not overlap to each other. In December 2009, the US allocated $8 million to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan protested the decision taken by the US Congress by claiming that this decision would negatively affect the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh and threaten Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This also means the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh regardless of Azerbaijan’s consent. Moreover, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group was not successful into reaching a peace resolution for the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. In addition, Azerbaijan perceived the OSCE Minsk Group as mostly favouring the interests of Armenia in this process. This kind of exclusive attitude can isolate and alienate Azerbaijan and force it to knock on the doors of Russia and Iran for cooperation.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict impedes any regional cooperation. Armenia, which has been under Russian control for many years, followed irreconcilable policies. In this sense, it remained restricted to a logic which does not contribute to any solutions. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, which possesses a significant amount of energy resources, has taken important strides to improve its foreign policy and economy in recent years. In this sense, Azerbaijan will become a more important actor in the region than Armenia considering its economic and political potential. As for Turkey, it should develop new policies towards Azerbaijan rather than ignoring or leaving it out from the region. The Nabucco Project increases the regional importance of Turkey as a transit country and a reliable partner. If Turkey is supposed to become a regional power, the partnership of Azerbaijan should not be neglected. In this regard, Turkey should concentrate on diplomatic relations with this country and balance its foreign policy towards the region. A wise foreign policy can save the fate of future relations in the areas of energy, security and peace. Turkey should not only focus on historical, cultural and linguistic affinities with Azerbaijan, but also enrich these bonds with real economic and political strides in every area. In this framework, the visa regime is one of these aspects and Turkey should not hesitate to take further steps to improve relations. If the situation comes to a deadlock and political resentments spill over into the society of both countries; no one will benefit from this situation, but it is obvious who will be the losers.