We are witnessing a very active period in terms of international politics. Especially with Obama’s attitude on foreign policy, which tends more to solve international problems via cooperation with other actors in international relations, foreign policy issues have been brought to the top of the agenda. It is also claimed that Clinton is leaving behind doctrines and labels. Clinton’s new thinking includes “partnership, engagement and common interests”. Moreover, possible consequences of this active period to foreign policies of some specific actors also draw attention.
Secretary Clinton visited Moscow and met with her counterpart Lavrov and President Medvedev last month. Moreover, Clinton’s statements after the meeting gave the impression that “Russia will change its foreign policy towards Iran”. The Western public did not hesitate to announce that Russia is changing its policy towards Iran, and by doing so Russia and the US will have a common point of view for Iran. US President Obama’s decision to scrap plans to base elements of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic was widely billed as the first concrete step for the eagerly expected “resetting” relations. In other words, Obama’s decision on the missile defense system was expected to encourage Russia and the US for further cooperation in many areas, including Iran. Nevertheless, Medvedev’s statements in New York that “sanctions are rarely productive, but sometimes are inevitable”, also pave the way for thinking that Russia will change its long-lasting policy not to support sanctions for Iran.
Secretary Clinton and Lavrov had an opportunity to discuss the progress on a successor agreement to START, cooperation on nonproliferation and counter terrorism. Since for the Americans the most important of those issues was Iran, the most emphasized issue during the meeting was undoubtedly Iran. Considering that both sides are willing to reduce strategic arms and fight against terrorism, it is not surprising to see Iran on the agenda. However, observing the atmosphere of goodwill and a positive sense properly is vitally important. In other words, Medvedev’s declarations need deliberate evaluation.
There are several reasons for this evaluation. First, nobody should forget that Russia holds a key position in Iran’s nuclear activity by constructing the Bushr nuclear reactor and also supplying its fuel. Accordingly, Russia already is a part of Iran’s nuclear activity. Moreover, Russia is the only partner of Iran in the nuclear field. So, Russia’s choice not to damage its special position in Iran would not be surprising. Second, Russia has good relations with both Iran and international actors that are suspicious of and concerned about Iran’s nuclear plans. So, Russia’s position has not reached the level of ‘mediator’, but still has this potential. From this point of view, Russia would choose not to risk its special position by carrying hostile policies towards Iran. Considering those two factors can give better understanding of whether Russia’s policies towards Iran will change.
Consequently, Obama’s critical decision on the missile defense system and declarations of goodwill led to expect a foreign policy shift that would prompt a transition from rhetoric to action and further steps of cooperation for both Russia and the US. Yet Medvedev clearly said that diplomacy must be the priority with Iran. Therefore, expecting a Russian foreign policy shift would be overlooking Russia’s strategic role in Iran’s nuclear activity. On the other hand Russia’s refraining from following hostile policies towards Iran is expectable. As mentioned before, this has not only economic but also political consequences. As long as Russia continues to hold this special role in Iran’s nuclear field, it would not be appropriate to expect a radical shift in Russia’s foreign policy towards Iran. Lastly, resetting ‘historically distrustful’ relations between Russia and the US’ will probably take some time. There may be a long-term process of confidence building. Since building trust takes time, Russia-US cooperation would take some time, especially in issues such as Iran on which the perceptions of the White House and the Kremlin do not align.
Note: This article was firstly published in Hurriyet Daily News on 12 November 2009.
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