Afghanistan held a presidential election on August 20^th. This was the second election for the Afghani people to elect their president since 2001. It was up to the Afghani people whether to elect current President Hamid Karzai for the second term or to make a new beginning with a new president. It was crucially important for Afghanistan to have a free and fair election, which was hoped to lead to stability and security in Afghanistan, and even in Central Asia and the entire region. However, it could not be achieved. Although it has been 59 days since the election was held, the official results are still unknown. According to the last declaration from the Independent (!) Election Commission, an official announcement is expected in the following week. How about what the unofficial results have told us? If we follow up the unofficial results, the president Hamid Karzai would be reelected with 54% of the votes.

Local and international observers have declared that there was a wide fraud in the election. After receiving over 2000 complaints, the Election Complaints Commission has decided to re-count 10 % of the votes. We will certainly have two scenarios after the recount process.

According to the first scenario – not certain, but most likely – Hamid Karzai would receive 50 % of the votes in the election and be reelected to the presidency. What will happen then? The majority of the Afghan population is not happy with Hamid Karzai and his administration. Hamid Karzai obtained only 55 % of the votes during the 2004 elections even though he had full support from the U.S. administration. Therefore, it does not seem likely that the re-election of Hamid Karzai will bring a new agenda to – and change things in – Afghan politics. It is not expected that Hamid Karzai and his administration could change the situation in Afghanistan, which got worse and worse especially since 2006. Apparently, all the hopes of Hamid Karzai again depend essentially on the U.S. and Western countries. Therefore, Karzai is agitated due to the delayed announcement of the election results and still feels the need to emphasize very often that a fair election was held and he is the winner of this election.

Hamid Karzai stated that if he were elected again he, a Pashtun, could negotiate with the Taliban, whose fighters are mainly composed of Pashtuns. Well, what would happen if both parties were able to negotiate? If we look at the relations of Karzai and Taliban in the past, will the gathering be a fruitful one? As the president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai should have gained the support of the Pashtun population more than the Taliban, but unfortunately he failed during his 5-year presidential term. Therefore, another 5 years with Hamid Karzai, having the same mindset, would be far from solving the problems of Afghan society and as a consequence of this, it is irrepressible that the Taliban will become stronger in Afghanistan.      

In the second possible scenario, Hamid Karzai’s votes would have fallen below 50 % and Karzai and Dr. Abdullah will compete for the second round of presidential elections as soon as possible. As a result of the run-off election, if Karzai wins again there will not be a new situation that differs from the picture above. However, what will happen if Dr. Abdullah wins against Hamid Karzai is a possibility worth further examination.

Before taking this option into consideration, we should seriously consider a potential situation: the environment in which the run-off will take place in Afghanistan. Let’s assume that the official results were declared during the next week as the Election Commission stated and there will be a second round. We will see that the first half of October will be gone. Even if the Election Commission immediately starts working for the second round of elections, the end of November could be the earliest date for the run-off. I believe this is still an optimistic date for the election. How could an election be carried out at the end of November in Afghanistan?    

Let’s recall a few details about the August 20 elections. 165,400 returning officers served in more than 6,500 polling stations, 230 million dollars were spent during the election process, hundreds of donkeys were used to carry election materials to the election centers because of the technical impossibility to use different transportation vehicles, millions of Afghan people were exhausted enough during the first election, the electorate took a dislike to the term democratic elections, and the Taliban was getting stronger throughout Afghanistan… Besides, it is highly possible that heavy rains will start in many regions in Afghanistan in late November. The international actors hope to approve the results of the run-off – if it could be realized – in these conditions. In short, a possible run-off will be a far more difficult and tiring process than the elections in August. If such an election takes place, more international actors will have to put their hands to the plough. It is enough to look at the ongoing U.S. example to see that it’s not tempting for anyone.

Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, has submitted an urgent report to the White House, in favor of increasing the number of troops. He also warned that if the Obama administration does not send new troops to Afghanistan, there is no chance for the U.S. to win this war, which has been going on for more than 8 years. However, the Obama administration is not acting hastily to meet this demand. One of the reasons is that there is a serious disagreement related to this issue in the Congress. The Obama administration cannot display its commitment to increasing troops in Afghanistan as they did in the past. The increase in civilian casualties poses an obstacle for Obama to receive the full support of American people regarding his Afghanistan policy.

Now, under these conditions, let’s go back to the question we asked above: “What will happen if Dr. Abdullah wins against Hamid Karzai?” What will happen if a second round occurs – under these circumstances – and Dr. Abdullah wins? It is difficult to say that Dr. Abdullah, who took part in the former cabinet as a Foreign Minister, offers different things than Hamid Karzai. There is something positive for Dr. Abdullah that he voiced during the election campaign; “the system should be changed.” The system must change, but how? What Dr. Abdullah promises, discourse of “a more democratic system”, is not something new in Afghan politics. To sum up, Dr. Abdullah has come in sight as an alternative rather than as a competitor to Hamid Karzai. At least his “system must change” discourse is positive. However, it is not very easy to answer that either the presidency of Dr. Abdullah or the re-election of Hamid Karzai would be less damaging to Afghanistan after a run-off that would drag Afghanistan into a political uncertainty for at least 2 to 3 months.    

Salih Dogan
USAK Center for Security Studies
sdogan@usak.org.tr

Note: A shorter version of this article was firstly published in Hurriyet Daily News on 19 October 2009.