In the previous week, a new page in the Greek political life was opened with the PASOK’s victory in the parliamentary elections (on October 4th). Greek citizens chose their new term prime minister to manage the country through the great economic challenges of the time and to make crucial decisions for the country’s future. Although more than twenty political parties registered for the elections, mainly two leading figures, Papandreou’s PASOK and Karamanlis’ New Democracy, dominated the public meetings. In fact, it was the natural consequence of the traditional politics in Greece. Since the beginning of modern Greek history, the two basic families, Papandreou and Karamanlis, ruled the country sequentially.[1]For this parliamentary term, it was PASOK’s turn, and Papandreou took over the helm from Karamanlis, as expected from the latest public opinion polls. The Greeks gave the majority to PASOK with 43.92% of the votes while New Democracy had 33.48%.
Major Political Parties
|
Leaders
|
Votes (%)
|
Seats
|
Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK)
|
George Papandreou
|
43.92
|
160
|
New Democracy (ND)
|
Kostas Karamanlis
|
33.48
|
91
|
Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
|
Aleka Papariga
|
7.54
|
21
|
Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS)
|
Georgios Karatzaferis
|
5.63
|
15
|
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA)
|
Alexis Tsipras
|
4.60
|
13
|
As can be seen from the table, PASOK gained widespread support from the public and forged ahead by 10% against New Democracy, which indicates an absolute victory by Papandreou. PASOK translated its votes into 160 seats and gained a comfortable parliamentary majority. Karamanlis considered the election results as a personal failure and announced his decision to resign from the party leadership, stating, “I assume responsibility for the defeat and start procedures for the election of a new party president.” It is estimated as a personal exit strategy to some extent by different environments. Nevertheless, it shows that an intense agenda is waiting for Greece in domestic politics.
In this regard, although PASOK secured the required seats in order to form a one-party government, it is not enough to stabilize the country. In addition to turbulent times in the political circles, Greece has been the scene of ups and downs for different issues ranging from the economic crisis to the Cyprus question. Accordingly, the foreign policy of Greece is also on the edge of the fizzling days. In this comment, the Turkish aspect of the Greece foreign policy will be analyzed in terms of the possible impacts of the new PASOK government on Turkey-Greece and Turkey-EU relations.
Possible Impacts on Turkey-Greece Relations
Since Greek society is experiencing a turbulent period in terms of economics and domestic politics in recent years, Turkey was not a hot topic in these Greek elections as it was in the previous ones. Not surprisingly, considering the impact of the global financial crisis on the Greek economy, there is not much room for discussing foreign policy issues. However, Turkey reserves its importance behind closed doors. Historically, Turkey-Greece relations have reflected one of the sensitive issues in both countries’ political agendas. The relations have been marked by alternating periods from conflicts to rapprochements. Historically speaking, three periods of rapprochements were realized between the two sides of the Aegean Sea. The first one was the famous friendship agreement between Ataturk and Venizelos. The second one was the meeting in Davos in 1987. Unfortunately, it did not create a permanent impact and the so-called ‘Davos spirit’ collapsed. The last rapprochement was seen after 1999 with the help of a series of events, such as the earthquake in Turkey, the 1999 Helsinki Summit and increasing economic relations between two countries. Although the aforementioned rapprochements softened the relations, major disputes are still on the table. The Aegean Sea disputes, the Cyprus problem, the rights of Turkish and Greek minorities in both countries and collaboration on illegal immigrants are still the most antagonizing issues.
When it is taken into consideration that Papandreou gives top priority to the national interests of Greek society in his election speeches, the new PASOK government could adopt nationalistic tendencies in its policies regarding the issues in question. On the other hand, Papandreou is also known for his sympathetic stance towards Turkey. During his Foreign Ministry period in the late 1990s (which refers to the final rapprochement), some positive developments were materialized and Turkey-Greece relations entered a virtuous circle. In this regard, it could be expected that PASOK will pursue more active diplomatic efforts in the bilateral relations. However, there is still no clear sign whether PASOK will contribute to improve the bilateral relations in order to transform the Aegean Sea into an area of peace, prosperity and security.
Possible Impacts on Turkey-EU Relations
During the last television program before the elections, where the major political leaders of Greece settled accounts with each other, Turkey occupied the focal point in the discussion for the first time. Regarding Turkey’s EU ambition, Papandreou stated his position by saying “we are supporters of Turkey’s bid for EU membership.” However, in the following part of his speech, Papandreou strongly criticized the Karamanlis government’s “wrong policies” towards Turkey in terms of its attempt to become a member of the European family. Accordingly, Papandreou gave signals to veto Turkey’s negotiation framework at the upcoming EU Summit in December. In that context, Papandreou’s recent remarks show that Turkey would face a difficult conjuncture. The EU will give its final decision on whether or not to continue the negotiations as of the end of 2009. How the EU will react to the ongoing disagreements still is not clear. Under these circumstances, how Turkey-EU relations will evolve remains a big question mark.
In fact, it is normal to expect that the relations between Turkey and the EU will gradually deteriorate in the coming days. Since the eight negotiation chapters were frozen, which is said to be directly related to the Cyprus issue, the Cyprus stalemate will lie at the centre of the negotiations in the Submit. Without any intervention of external factors, the negotiation chapters much first be agreed upon. When it is considered from the Greek perspective, it is not realistic to expect it to support Turkey’s stance because it is a party of the conflict. In this context, it can be said that Greece will continue to support Turkey’s EU membership on a conditional basis and try to get as many concessions as possible.
All things considered, as of last week Greece had a new government. Hard times are waiting for PASOK in terms of economics, domestic politics and foreign policy issues. This conjuncture will have repercussions on Greece-Turkey and Turkey-EU relations both positively and negatively. Nonetheless, it can be said that some of the strategic policies of the Greek state will not change. Keeping the relations with Turkey on a moderate level and supporting Turkey’s EU membership on a conditional basis are among the most probable alternatives.
MuzafferVatansever
USAK Center for EU Studies
[1]There are two exceptions: The first one is the Constantine Mitsotakis’ government between the years 1990-1993 and the second one is the Costas Simitis’ government between the years 1996-2004. These two figures do not come from the Karamanlis’ and/or Papandreou’ families, however represent to the New Democracy and PASOK.
* This comment is the extended version of the previously published comment on the Greek elections.
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