Greece is in the final days before parliamentary election in Sunday. On October 4th, Greek citizens will choose their new term prime minister to manage the country through the great economic challenges of the time and make crucial decisions for the country's future course. Although 28 political parties registered for the incoming elections, mainly two leading figures, Papandreou’s PASOK and Karamanlis’ New Democracy, dominate the public meetings. In fact, it is the natural consequence of the traditional politics in Greece. Since the beginning of modern Greek history, the two basic families, Papandreou and Karamanlis, ruled the country sequentially.[1] For the upcoming elections, it is expected to take over the helm from Karamanlis by Papandreou. The latest public opinion polls give the majority to PASOK with an estimated 40-42% of the votes while New Democracy having 30-32%.
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Major Political Parties
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Expected Vote Interval
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Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK)
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40-42%
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New Democracy (ND)
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30-32%
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Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
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6-7%
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People’s Orthodox Alarm (LAOS)
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4-5%
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Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA)
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3-4%
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According to the polls data, PASOK has gained support and forge ahead of 6-7% against New Democracy. However, it is hard to predict whether PASOK will translate its votes into seat. Since Greece has one of the most complex proportional electoral systems in Europe, PASOK will need to secure 41% of the vote in order to gain a comfortable parliamentary majority. In this regard, all estimated data and future expectations are the scenarios. Nevertheless, scenarios are useful to shape the strategies for future steps, especially from the international relations and state behavior perspectives. Accordingly, in this comment Turkey-Greece and Turkey-EU relations under a possible PASOK government will be analyzed in the following part.
Impact on Turkey-Greece Relations
Since Greek society is experiencing a turbulent period in terms of economics and domestic politics in recent years, Turkey has not become a hot topic in Greek elections as it was in the previous ones. Not surprisingly, considering the impact of global financial crisis on Greek economy, there is no much room for discussing foreign policy issues. However, Turkey reserves its importance behind the closed doors. Historically, Turkey-Greece relations have been reflected one of the sensitive issues in both countries political agenda. The relations have been marked by alternating periods from conflicts to rapprochements. Historically speaking three periods of rapprochements were realized between the two sides of Aegean Sea. The first one was the famous friendship agreement between Ataturk and Venizelos. The second one was the meeting in Davos in 1987. Unfortunately, it did not create a permanent impact and so-called ‘Davos spirit’ collapsed. The last rapprochement was seen after 1999 with the help of serious of events such as Earthquake in Turkey, 1999 Helsinki Summit and increasing economic relations between two countries. Although these rapprochements softened the relations, major disputes are still on the table. The Aegean Sea disputes, Cyprus problem, the rights of Turkish and Greek minorities in both countries and collaboration on illegal immigrants are still the most antagonizing issues. When it is taken into consideration that Papandreou gives top priority to the national interests of Greek society in his election speeches, a possible PASOK government could adopt nationalistic tendencies in its policies regarding the issues in question. On the other hand, Papandreou is also known with his sympathetic stance towards Turkey. During his Foreign Ministry period in the late 1990s (which refers to the final rapprochement), some positive developments were materialized and Turkey-Greece relations entered into a virtuous circle. In this regard, it could be expected that PASOK will pursue more active diplomatic efforts in the bilateral relations. At this point, there is no clear sign whether PASOK will contribute to improve the bilateral relations in order to transform the Aegean Sea into an area of peace, prosperity and security.
Impact on Turkey-EU Relations
During the last television program, where the two leaders settled accounts with each other, Turkey occupied the focal point in the discussion for the first time. Regarding Turkey’s EU ambition, Papandreou stated his position by saying “we are the supporters of Turkey’s bid for EU membership.” However, in the following part of his speech, Papandreou strongly criticized Karamanlis governments’ “wrong policies” towards Turkey in terms of its attempt to become a member of the European family. Accordingly, Papandreou gave signals to veto negotiation framework of Turkey at the upcoming EU Summit in December. In that context, Papandreou’s recent remarks show that Turkey would face with a difficult conjuncture. The EU will give its final decision on whether or not to continue the negotiations as of the end of 2009. How the EU will react to the ongoing disagreements still is not clear. Under these circumstances, how Turkey-EU relations will evolve remains an unclear issue. Nevertheless, if there is something that is not expected to change is Greece’s support of Turkey’s EU membership on conditionality basis.
All things considered, as of Monday Greece will have a new government. Although Papandreou is expected to win the elections, either PASOK or New Democracy, hard times in Greece are expected in terms of economics, domestic politics and foreign policy issues. This conjuncture will find its repercussions on Greece-Turkey and Turkey-EU relations both positively and negatively. Nonetheless, it can be said that some of the strategic policies of the Greek state will not change. Keeping the relations with Turkey on a moderate level and supporting Turkey’s EU membership on conditional basis are among the most probable alternatives.
Muzaffer Vatansever
USAK Center for EU Studies
[1] There are two exceptions: The first one is the Constantine Mitsotakis’ government between the years 1990-1993 and the second one is the Costas Simitis’ government between the years 1996-2004. These two figures do not come from the Karamanlis’ and/or Papandreou’ families, however represent to the New Democracy and PASOK.
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