The relations between Turkey and Syria gained a new dimension last week as a result of the continuing negotiations of the High Level Strategic Cooperation signed by the Turkish and Syrian leaders. Many commenders interpreted the meeting very positively and on the day after the meetings Syrian newspapers covered the issue on their front pages. The main emphasis has been on the revised economic and social relations between the cuntries.
Turkish-Syrian relations have gained strength since the beginning of the 2000s. Despite criticisms, the visit of ex Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to Syria for the funeral of Hafez Al-Asad was perceived as an olive branch and the initiative is still recalled by Syrians. Turkey has followed a stable policy towards Syria, which has been isolated by the West, subjected to economic sanctions particularly after September 11, and has faced international pressure following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri in 2005. Regarding Syria’s relations with the US we see that Syria was added to the list of terrorism-supporting countries in 1979 as it hosted Palestinian groups, and Washington’s withdrawal of its ambassador from the country also strained the relations between the two sides.
When we look at the regional improvements in the 2000s, the increase in sectarian tensions and Iran’s effect after the 2003 Iraqi occupation, the continuation of Hamas’ resistance depending on the Arab-Isreli conflict and the 2000 Intifada, the 2006 Lebanon war, and, dependent on this, the increase of Hezbollah’s activities, Syria’s rapproachment with Iran after its isolation and the polarization of the Arab World all confused the balances in the region.
Nonetheless, after Bashar Al-Asad came to office, neighbouring countries were seen as a way of departure for Syria, which began to apply liberation policies to get over its heavy economic conditions and tried to increase foreign investment in the country. Due to domestic reasons, Asad tried to break the isolationist policies in Syrian foreign relations. Another important change was seen with the decision to appoint a US ambassador to Syria although the name is still not known; yet the delay is said to result from technical reasons, not politics. Moreover, one Syrian official visited the US recently for the first time since 2004. Similarly, after four years of tensions, Lebenon and Syria mutually appointed ambassadors and as a result, Lebanon was recognised by Syria.
Apart from the U.S. in these last years we see that the Syrian and Israeli peace meeting came up on the agenda again. However, the last initiative under the mediation of Turkey at the end of 2008 could not continue in the atmosphere of the Gaza attacks. Although Turkey and Syria are giving positive messages about peace, and there were several attempts in 1996 and between 1998-2000, when it is evaluated in the short term the possibility of Syrian-Israeli negotiation is not likely. Recently, the main issue for Israel is the Palestinian issue. While the issue of settlements has been continuing, except that agenda, a concession on the Golan Heights, which is sine qua non for Syria for peace, is not possible. Moreover, although the US’ position is supporting Turkish-Syrian relations, Israel’s doubts have continued because of Syria’s relations with Iran.
In this unstable environment, it seems that compared with the previous problems with Hatay, water and terrorism and the 1998 crisis between Syria and Turkey there has been a great change in the new process with Turkey in the 2000s. The trade volume between Syria and Turkey doubled in the last five years; in 2008 its volume was 2 billion dollars, and it is expected to reach 3 billion dollars in 2009. A free trade agreement signed in 2007 also contributed to this improvement. Projects for natural gas, electricity production and joint petroleum search initiatives have been continuing between the two countries. Moreover, it is planned that Turkey will contribute to Syria on the issue of renewable sources. Syria also signed the High Level Strategic Cooperation agrement. This, along with the arrangement of mutual ministerial visits in the future and lifting the visa requirement between Syria and Turkey, means that Davutoglu’s wish for integration with neighbours will be possible with Syria. Yet, time is needed to expand this agreement to include three of these countries due to the detoriated relations of Syria and Iraq. Turkey had conducted shuttle diplomacy between Syria-Iraq to resolve the last tension after the attacks which led to the deaths of 95 people. Yet Al-Maliki’s insistence to go to international court about the issue means a similar process to that which followed the Hariri assassination. At this point the main agenda for Syria is to overcome its difficulties with the help of its neighbors, particularly Turkey.
Regarding the visa issue, a visa between the two countries was not more than a basic procedure and after lifting the requirement, daily visits will increase and that will contribute to the social integration of these two countries. Turkey also doesn’t have a visa procedure with Iran and hosts more than one million Iranian tourists annually. Although some ask the question ‘is Turkey turning to the East’, obviously, a country that makes an effort to increase stability and plays a leading role in its own region will be more preferable for the West.
Serpil Acikalin, USAK Center for Middle Eastern Studies
E-mail: sacikalin8@gmail.com
Edited by Kaitlin MacKenzie
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