After the European Parliament elections, I was very reluctant - even allergic - to write anything on Turkey's bid for EU membership, since I was not excepting any change at all. Now, there is another important election waiting to be guessed, or let’s put it differently, to be “analyzed”: Germany is going to the polls on Sunday!

To me it is, of course, questionable what changes these elections can bring about. But as the Turkish story-telling genius Sait Faik said, I would have gone mad, if I had not written anything. So, here is my last minute “lottery pick” for this weekend's results:

Before starting to talk about possible coalition partners, we should make something very clear: the Christian Democrats (i.e. the “Union” formed by CDU and CSU) will most probably be the leading partner in any future government coalition. During the last four years the country was run by a “Grand Coalition”, i.e. a coalition formed by the two main parties CDU/CSU and Social Democrats (SPD). Now, the Christian Democrats want “more Union in the politics”, as Angela Merkel stated in her television duel with the social democratic candidate and current foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD).

The CDU's favorite partner to achieve that goal is the Liberals (FDP). This “black-yellow coalition”, named after the parties' symbolic colors, is also supported by the FDP, which has increased its votes in all recent elections held in the federal states, the “Laender”. The idea that there could be a “traffic light coalition”, one formed by the Liberals, Social Democrats, and the Greens, has already been ruled out by the FDP, for whom the main goal is to be a coalition partner.

The SPD meanwhile has moved away from its highly criticized strategy during the European Parliament election campaign. At the time, the focus on negative campaigning that attacked not only the other parties but also their voters led to a catastrophic result. Thus today, instead of claiming that “finance sharks would vote for the FDP”, Steinmeier's argument goes something like “Do not vote for the black-yellow coalition because you need the Social Democrats in the times of financial crisis”. This might be the reason why the SPD is closing the gap after starting the campaign at its lowest level in the polls ever recorded. Yet, their only realistic chance at staying in government is as a junior partner in a renewed “Grand Coalition” with the CDU/CSU.

The election debate concentrates mainly on these three parties (SPD, FDP, CDU) and two possible coalitions. There are, however, other actors who will probably increase their votes though they are unlikely to form part of a government coalition: the Greens and the Left party (Socialists, also symbolized by the color red).

Even if they may not be a coalition partner, their rise means a lot for the future debate in Germany. Whatever coalition is going to be formed in the coming weeks – be it a yellow-black or Grand Coalition – people will talk a lot more about red-red-green coalitions during the next election cycle. If the FDP will not be in a governing coalition this time around, the possibility of a future traffic light coalition would also be reconsidered.

Within this framework, my lottery guess is “why not another Grand Coalition”; though many expect a CDU-FDP government. What I also guess is, that one cannot expect dramatic changes in EU-Turkey relations.

In case of a coalition with the Liberals, the Liberals would probably get the Foreign Ministry because the smaller coalition partner traditionally gets this position. They have quite possibly the most indifferent approach to Turkish accession to the EU since they only feel responsible to their voters that mainly vote for them because of financial reasons like tax reductions and more liberal economic policies. Hence, in a coalition with “more Union”, the FDP would implement a foreign policy inspired and supported by the CDU. And, I believe, as long as Turkey is not of the primary importance in terms of economic interests, the FDP will not truly support Turkish membership. Will this change anything? Why should it? The accession talks are more than slowed down and the French-German bloc against Turkish membership is already powerful enough.

So what would change in case of another Grand Coalition? There is the general belief that the Social Democrats are pro Turkish accession and the Christian Democrats are not. That might be true but the Social Democrats have been in government for the last eleven years, and I cannot remember any recent significant step made by them in the Turkish accession process except that they claim not to think like their coalition partner. In addition, there has not been any progress in improving the rights of the Turkish community – just in the contrary. It was the Social Democratic-led government that passed the law on dual citizenship, which meant that many people with a Turkish background have had to choose between a Turkish or German nationality. I am aware that it is a different subject altogether but to give you an answer right now: I believe that dual citizenship would be much more appreciated as it would allow people to feel at home and the endless debate on integration could take a different direction. To sum it up, with the SPD being a coalition partner, nothing is likely to change.

Well, let’s wait and see!