Chinese President Hu Jintao has promised the people of China a politically and socially stable society. The government is working towards its goal of ‘hexie shehui’ meaning “a harmonious society” through sustainable development and people’s welfare programs. These days China is witnessing an unprecedented number of public protests, demonstrations and violence. These displays of social friction seem to be multiplying every year. Will this brewing unrest culminate in another violent spectacle like the Tiananmen Square tragedy? That seems unlikely at this time; however these displays of public frustration do represent a fundamental threat to a harmonious Chinese society - today and in the years to come, if the issues behind them are not addressed.

The recent ethnic clashes in China’s western province of Xinjiang left around 150 people dead and more than a thousand injured. The boiling over of ethnic tensions between the local Muslim Uighurs and the migrant Han Chinese is just another reminder of the hazards of the settlement policy that the government had deliberately pursued for the development of China’s western region. 2008 witnessed huge protests and rioting in Lhasa by Tibetan monks against the Chinese rule that left over 80 people dead . There have been protests and demonstrations all over the country related to various issues such as ethnic tensions, unemployment, water scarcity, pollution, wage arrears, mismanagement of funds, dearth of social services, tainted food etc. In November 2008, hundreds of laid-off workers in the southwestern province of Guangdong rioted to protest the issue of their severance pay. 2008 also saw the scandal of melamine-tainted milk powder and intense protests.

In August of this year, people clashed with the police in the southern Hunan province over the issue of their children being exposed to lead-poisoning due to a local smelting plant. Also in August, villagers in the coastal Fujian province protested against a sewage plant that was polluting the air and water. According to the Chinese police, the number of mass protests, defined as involving more than a hundred people, has increased from 8700 in 1993 to 74000 in 2004. By 2008, this figure had jumped to 120000. According to some sources, the first quarter of 2009 had already seen 58000 of such ‘mass incidents’ in China.

The statistics of rising mass protests are staggering, and would lead one to believe that a mass movement is in the making that would politically destabilize the ruling Communist Party of China. But the fact is that these protests, demonstrations and riots are not an immediate threat to the stability of the government in China. They are not the beginning of a mass movement as they are not being carried out by a unified people against the central government. These protests reflect the frustration of the common man – angered by unemployment, corruption, water scarcity, and pollution - taking to the streets to raise a demand for justice. The increase in the number of mass incidents is also partly the result of the introduction of market-oriented capitalism. This has led to the restructuring of China’s earlier state structure. The transformation of the country’s economy from a rural, largely agrarian and centrally planned one to the highly competitive, manufacturing and trading based giant that it is today, has led to friction between different segments of the society. One example of such fast-changing social dynamic is the loss of the security of lifetime employment that many had enjoyed earlier.

Despite the fact that these protests are not directly threatening the political stability of China at the moment, one must remember that the number, scope, organizational level and frequency of these protests are increasing steadily. In the long run, this can prove to be a challenge to China’s social stability unless efforts are made to address the underlying issues. It is relatively clear that such public protests will only become more frequent in the coming years. First, the ethnic clashes, which are usually quelled in China with the use of force, will return with the vengeance as the government has done nothing to address the root cause of such clashes. Second, the global economic recession has had a huge impact on China’s economy and has driven up the unemployment rate. Growing unemployment will only fuel more frustration amongst the people. And third, growing water scarcity is leading to inter-provincial conflicts. In addition to growing water and arable land scarcity, flooding, droughts etc. are giving rise to internal displacement of people. As demographics change, the pressure on limited resources increases and gives rise to social instability. If not handled with care, this social instability could worsen until it eventually boils over, with grievous consequences for the Chinese government.

 Hu Jintao’s government, if it intends to stay true to its slogan of working towards a harmonious society, will have to get to the core of the issues that are generating these mass protests. The forcible quelling of frequent ethnic clashes only leads to loss of international goodwill – something that China can ill-afford at present given an already poor human rights record. Eventually, the increasing number of ethnic clashes in the western provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet might have the effect of reversing China’s western development policy. The Han people that have been settled here as a result of this policy might decide to return to their homes. This will jeopardize the economy of the region that the government has taken pains to develop. This means that the government will have to make an effort to resolve the ethnic issues in question or placate the people through fresh economic opportunities. The government will also have to address the problem of corruption at the local government level, so that the people don’t have to resort to protests and demonstrations to get justice. In view of the current global economic recession, the government will have to deal with the anger and frustration amongst the ranks of millions who have been rendered jobless, especially the hordes of migrant laborers in urban centers.

The rising number of protests in China might not represent an imminent threat to the social and political stability of China yet. However, if the Chinese government continues to suppress these protests, without addressing the underlying causes, the day will not be too far when the fabric of Chinese society and political structure of China starts eroding.