Armenia became independent in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR. If Armenia’s first experience as a sovereign state, which lasted from 1918 to 1920, is disregarded, this is the first Armenian state in the modern era. Following its independence, a young and inexperienced Armenian state found itself in a very difficult environment. Armenia attacked and occupied one-fifth of the territory of neighboring Azerbaijan just after the independence despite having just experienced a major earthquake. A landlocked country without any natural resources, Armenia has the smallest size and population among the surrounding countries; to ameliorate this situation, Armenia has tended to increase its relations with Russia, which was already considered a historical ally against the Turks. Russia also supported the Armenians during the Nagorno-Karabakh War against Azerbaijan.
Thus, in the post-Soviet era Armenia was the only former Soviet republic attempting to restore relations with Russia. While the other former Soviet republics were trying to decrease their dependence on Moscow in terms of economics, politics, and military relations, Armenia made an effort to increase its dependence on Russia. Consequently, Russian military forces committed to protecting Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey. Besides, while the other former Soviet republics were trying to get rid of the Russian military bases located on their own lands, Armenia has made them permanent bases. Armenia received large loans from Russia and could not pay its debts; therefore, most of the Armenia’s sub-structure organizations passed to Russian companies. Today, Armenia’s energy sector is under Russian control. While Armenia was becoming more open to Russian influence, Azerbaijan and Georgia attempted to reduce Russian influence and tried to become independent countries. In this context, Azerbaijan and Georgia balanced Russia with the West. In addition to the political cooperation between Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, there were attempts for economic integration too. For example, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline linked these three countries to each other. In addition to this pipeline, these three countries have agreed on the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey gas pipeline. Moreover, they have embarked upon a project that includes integrating railway lines and other transportation networks as well. Azeri and Georgian soldiers were trained by American and Turkish military officers while Armenians tried to set up close military relations with Russia. Both Georgia and Azerbaijan declared their wishes to get opinions from all Western political and military institutions. Georgia also applied for NATO membership, and NATO gave strong signals of accepting it. In short, the balance of power in the Caucasus has been formed by two blocs: the Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan bloc, and the Russia-Armenia bloc. Russia also attempted to use Iran and minority groups in the Caucasus against the West. Especially in Georgia, Armenian, Abkhaz, and Ossetian minorities were seen as stabilizing elements.
Russia made one of the most serious steps in the Caucasus in August 2008 and divided Georgia into three parts. Afterwards, despite the objections of the West, Russia recognized Abkhazia and Ossetia as independent states. Russia has also come very close to having a border with Armenia, its only ally in the region. It seems that if Georgia’s problems with Russia continue to increase, Russia will support the independence of Samtskhe-Javakheti, a region in southern Georgia that borders Armenia to the south, in which a dense Armenian minority lives.
When we look at the whole picture, it is unrealistic to think that Armenia will leave the Russian bloc and join the Western bloc, which includes Europe and the U.S. Russia would not allow such a development and would do everything in its power to block it, for it is not willing to lose its ally in the region. Rather, it was planning to expand its sphere of influence through Georgia and Azerbaijan. However, some experts, especially in the U.S., claim that resolving the Karabakh problem or opening the Turkey-Armenia border could lead Armenia to shift towards the West. As a result of this assumption, the U.S.’ Caucasus policy is becoming more complicated, and this situation is decreasing the power of the pro-Western bloc.
Turkey-Japan Relations: The Need to Think Beyond Trade
