written by M. Turgut Demirtepe printable version send your friend

Thursday, 13 August 2009

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has recently made a “U-turn” regarding the closure of the Manas military base and come to the table with the United States. The Kyrgyz government had previously ended the United States’ use of the Manas base, which is of vital importance for the U.S. to support coalition military operations in Afghanistan.


Bakiyev announced the decision during his Moscow visit in February 2009, right after Russia’s decision to help Kyrgyzstan with $2 billion. This has been generally assessed as Russia’s last move against the United States in Central Asia. Although it has been a couple of months since the closure decision, Bakiyev’s new move toward the United States and resigning an agreement was seen as a surprising development. However, Bakiyev was aware of the United States’ need of the Manas base, and by taking the global power’s struggle in Central Asia into consideration he seems to win the gamble.


After the announcement of the decision in February, the United States has seen that Russia played a key role during the decision process and sought to negotiate with both Russia and Kyrgyzstan behind closed doors. Since the closure decision Bakiyev has had negotiations with U.S. officials regarding the increase of the rental price for the base. As a result, rent was increased threefold and the United States provided financial assistance to Kyrgyzstan.


Whether Bakiyev changed his mind with Moscow’s knowledge is a debatable issue. The Russian power elite have long been uncomfortable with the United States’ increasing influence in the region. Moscow has been following a policy to restrict U.S. influence in Central Asia by using such an international platform as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and through bilateral negotiations conducted with the countries of the region. Many in Moscow believe that the U.S. uses the threat of the Taliban as an excuse to have military bases close to Russia.


On the other hand, the Russian elite are aware that the instability in Afghanistan has increased recently and the United States’ situation in Afghanistan is getting more and more complex. They also foresee that the decline of Afghanistan would lead to serious instability first in Pakistan and other neighboring countries, and then in Central Asia, which is of vital importance for Russia because of its natural resources. Therefore, the Russian administration is in close cooperation with the United States on the Afghanistan issue.


In this context, the United States has negotiated with the Russian authorities on the Manas base and has always emphasized its importance in terms of seeking a solution in Afghanistan. Consequently, Russia promised to support the U.S. in its fight in Afghanistan by taking the above-mentioned concerns into consideration. However, willing to get the maximum benefit from its U.S. support, while allowing Bakiyev to let the Manas base remain open, Russia aimed to reinforce its position in the region as a result of its support. The Russian administration asked to open another base in Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan – very close to the Uzbekistan border – in addition to the Kant airbase near Bishkek.


The military base in Osh is planned to be the center of a Rapid Reaction Force under the Collective Security Treaty Organization. At the Moscow summit on June 14, the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization agreed to create a Rapid Reaction Force – despite objections from Uzbekistan – to take action against the threats that the member countries may face. By having such a base in a strategic location, not far from Afghanistan, Russia is strengthening its position in the region. It also aims to have the capability to interfere in a potential conflict in the Ferghana Valley, which is a hotbed of ethnic and religious conflicts in the region.


However, Uzbekistan strongly opposes the existence of a Russian military base close to its borders even if it is within the body of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Uzbekistan has been always concerned about the Russian military’s strengthening presence close to its borders. Once Moscow set up a motorized unit in Tajikistan at the end of 1990s, and the Uzbek administration reacted strongly. This was one of the main reasons for Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization in 1999.


Uzbekistan’s strong reaction to a Russian military base in Kyrgyz border is, in fact, in line with Uzbekistan’s general foreign policy. The country has always followed a balance policy among the global and regional actors. President Islam Karimov has been very consistent in his policy of playing Moscow and Washington off each other to serve his regime’s needs. Soon after the 2005 Andijan events, Uzbekistan moved away from the United States and the EU as a strong reaction to Western criticism of the Uzbek government’s handling of the unrest, and developed a close cooperation with Russia, but now, especially for the last year, it has been again seeking to repair relations with the West.


Moreover, Uzbekistan is worried that Russia might use the radical groups, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, or IMU, as they previously did, as a tool in the power politics of the region and generate a controlled instability to improve its sphere of influence in the region. When the IMU increased its activities during the 1999-2001 period, Uzbekistan put the finger on Russia as the power behind the IMU. Coincidentally (or not), the IMU’s increasing activities in the last two months in the region and its attacks on several occasions legitimize the need of a Rapid Reaction Force, and so increases the further doubts of Uzbekistan.


Also, the demographic characteristic of Osh and its surrounding region is another matter of concern for Uzbekistan. According to the official data, the majority of Kyrgyzstan’s Uzbek minority, which makes up 14 percent of the population of Kyrgyzstan, lives in this region. During the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 there was a serious ethnic conflict outbreak followed by bloody clashes in Osh between Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks that resulted in the death of hundreds of people from both sides. Uzbek’s local autonomy demand is pending for now. However, the Uzbek minority’s request as the Uzbek language to be declared as an official language and some complaints regarding the Kyrgyzs’ behaviors against them come to the agenda from time to time. The Uzbek administration is seriously apprehensive that Russia would use the Rapid Reaction Force as a manipulation tool to incite hatred between both ethnic groups in order to increase its sphere of influence in Central Asia, rather than use it to prevent potential conflict in the region.


On the other hand, being trapped by circumstances, Washington had to declare that it has no objections to Russia’s new military base in Kyrgyzstan. Besides, Kazakhstan officials say that they are very positive about the deployment of a Rapid Reaction Force under the control of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the region.


Whatever the result would be, it seems that Bishkek has benefited from the gamble it played – at least in the short run. Russia also seems to gain a foothold in Central Asia against the United States by taking advantage of the its difficult situation in the region in exchange for letting the U.S. forces stay at the Manas base. Only the future will show to what extent Uzbekistan is right in its concern for Russia’s secret hand in the region.


Whatever the result would be, it seems that Bishkek has benefited from the gamble it played – at least in the short run. Russia also seems to gain a foothold in Central Asia against the United States by taking advantage of the United States’ difficult situation in the region in exchange for letting the U.S. forces stay at the Manas base. Only the future will show to what extent Uzbekistan is right in its concern about Russia’s secret hand in the region.


E-mail: turgutdem@yahoo.co.uk


* Assistant Professor M. Turgut Demirtepe is adviser on Central Asia at the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO)/(USAK) and also a lecturer at Aksaray University.


The article was firstly published in the Hürriyet Daily News on August 11, 2009.