written by Stacy Maruskin printable version send your friend

Thursday, 13 August 2009

Change: it is a word that has been uttered by United States President Barack Obama more times than can be counted. 

It has been four months since President Obama stood at the podium in the Grand National Assembly and addressed the Turkish Deputies.  His speech was inspirational and offered hope for a new era of stronger relations between the two countries.  A wide range of important matters were addressed, from energy and the European Union (EU) to Afghanistan and PKK, a terrorist organization which has caused much devastation in Turkey.

After such an incredible speech filled with hope and assurance, were those words simply empty promises disguised as an extended hand for a stronger bond?  Turkey has much to offer due to its geopolitical position and has already showed its willingness to step up and play the mediator in some of the world’s most challenging conflicts.  Let us examine whether this speech was typical rhetoric, spat out to appease the masses, or whether real change has begun with the implementation of policies that could bolster ties between these two nations.

Energy

In his speech, Obama encouraged further economic cooperation in terms of trade and renewable energy investments and advised that the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) should be built upon in order to leverage those investments in Turkey.

The fund is an initiative put forth in order to help developing countries finance technologies which will cut greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants. The United States is one of the top contributors to the account, which is managed by the World Bank. It was recently announced that Turkey is the recipient of a project which will provide the country with $100 million from the CTF and a loan of $500 million for clean power and industrial energy efficiency projects. Turkey has been one of the first countries to receive this funding, which is also intended to stimulate local investments. Although Obama did not specifically state that Turkey would receive direct funding so soon from this project, it was anticipated that they would be a beneficiary eventually.

The Armenian Issue

Turkey and Armenia have been in the midst of a normalization process since President Abdullah Gul’s visit last year- the first to Armenia by a Turkish leader.  Obama reiterated the United States’ desire for full normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia and for an open border to exist between the two. The U.S. has backed talks between them in order to further progress however, progress has been limited.  The Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has recently echoed once more that Turkey demands a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict before it continues with its normalization of relations with Armenia. Azerbaijan, a close friend to Turkey, has been in a territorial dispute with Armenia over the region, which lays within the formers borders.

Members in Congress have blasted Turkey for its request of preconditions in order to continue negotiations with Armenia. A letter signed by 81 Congressional members was sent to President Obama and included complaints that preconditions were in conflict with U.S. policy that normalization occur without them.

Due to the power of the Armenian lobby within the States, there has been a lack of sensitivity on such a delicate issue in Turkey. Analysts are saying that upon the reopening of Congress in September, pro-Armenian lawmakers are planning to increase their efforts to see the passage of an “Armenian genocide resolution” - a move that could have disastrous effects on the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey.

Obama specifically noted that Turkey should play a constructive role in helping to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  However, it was not suggested that negotiations on the reopening of the Armenian border be paused if a satisfactory outcome does not come to fruition in the case of the conflict.

Joint Efforts to Fight the PKK

Obama made his point abundantly clear that the United States supported what he called a, “secure and united Iraq that does not serve as a safe-haven for terrorists.” He spoke of the common threat that Iraq, Turkey and the U.S. face from terrorism, which not only included al Qaeda terrorists but those from the PKK as well.  He had also pledged that Turkey would have the support of the U.S. against terrorist activities by the PKK and that all three governments would pull their efforts together to fight their shared threat.

In late July, a trilateral meeting took place between representatives of Turkey, Iraq, the United States and a representative from northern Iraq, where a Kurdish majority resides and the PKK launches attacks from its mountain bases.  The meeting was the third such since the three established a joint committee last fall and it addressed further measures that all sides could take in order to eradicate PKK terrorism. Specific action plans were discussed and the U.S. has pledged to continue its cooperation with Turkey in intelligence sharing with regards to PKK operations in Iraq. 

The Turkish government will also be releasing a proposal in the near future which will address the Kurdish issue in Turkey and search for a solution to entice members of PKK to lay down their arms.  This proposal has reportedly been supported by the United States, although the Turkish government is asking for suggestions from all facets of society to facilitate new ideas in order to combat this issue.

Turkey has also planned diplomatic campaigns to be launched in the United States and within the European Union to target PKK affiliated branches abroad.  Following the meeting between the three, the U.S. promised to help Turkey in its fight against PKK groups in Europe, and the administration has said that it will do whatever it can to help Turkey dispel the PKK. These actions further stress the importance the U.S. places on helping Turkey in its fight against PKK.

Israel and Palestine

For Israel and Palestine to exist as two peaceful and separate states is not only a goal that Obama has expressed, but one that many around the world would welcome. In his speech, he stressed that “both must live up to the commitments they have made and overcome longstanding passions and the politics of the moment to make progress toward a secure and lasting peace.”

It should come as no surprise that Obama expressed his disappointment in Israel’s recent eviction of several Palestinian families in East Jerusalem, an act that enabled new Jewish residents to move in.  His administration wants to see peace in the region and yet last week’s actions do not keep in line with the 2003 “roadmap for peace” plan.

Obama has been one of the first U.S. Presidents to apply significant pressure on Israel over its settlement activity and he has done so increasingly in the last few months. This has led to a straining of relations between the two which has not existed in years.  A spokesman for the U.S. State Department has urged Israel to avoid “provocative actions,” while Obama has asked that Israel commit to a one-year freeze of West Bank settlement activity. He believes this will encourage neighboring Arab states to normalize relations with Israel.  The U.S. has also stated that a Middle East peace plan will be released within weeks and it is encouraging Israel to accept it and “take the lead.”

Iran

The United States has remained firm on its stance that Iran halt its nuclear ambitions. There has been no wavering, only an increase in rhetoric aimed at scaring Tehran from continuing uranium enrichment activities.

Obama had warned in his speech that Iran must choose between building a weapon or building a better future for its people. During Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent visit to Thailand, she echoed previous sentiments that action would be taken if Iran continued in its quest to join the nuclear club.   However, Clinton’s threats were much bolder than prior statements, saying that, “We… have made it clear that we will take actions, as I have said time and time again, crippling action working to upgrade the defenses of our partners in the region.”

The United States has already consulted with Israel and European allies on possible sanctions that could be executed.  Those might include barring shipments of refined petroleum products and byproducts to Iran, tightening rules on investments in Iran’s oil industry and restricting the purchase of Iranian gas and oil.  However, China and Russia must participate in order for the embargo to have a negative impact on their economy. Iran has been given until the last week of September to shape up; otherwise sanctions will be on the agenda at the annual UN General Assembly meeting.

Afghanistan

The daily bombings in Afghanistan have gradually increased in recent months and each day brings more news of soldiers and civilians being injured or killed by insurgents. When Obama expressed support for Turkey in fighting the PKK, he also spoke of the increased efforts the United States would take in order to, “disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda.”  He added that the U.S. would be increasing efforts to train Afghans in upholding their own security and that further assistance would be given where necessary.  He also offered his appreciation to Turkey for their troop contribution and the training and support for Afghan Security Forces.

The United States has shown its commitment to eliminating al Qaeda in Afghanistan and has continued their backing through an increase of troops in the region. Obama has upheld his plan to deploy 17,000 additional U.S. troops to southern Afghanistan, which was announced on March 27, just days before his speech in Turkey.

At the 28^th Annual Conference on U.S. - Turkish Relations, held in Washington D.C. earlier this summer, a forum was held for U.S. and Turkish government, military and academia leaders to discuss issues and opportunities to satisfy both countries interests. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, “We need your friendship, we need your support.”  He also said the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey today is “exceptionally strong” and “vitally important.”  When it was Turkish military General Ilker Basbug, the chief of the Turkish General Staff’s turn to speak, he echoed the same sentiments stating that, “Turkish- U.S. cooperation in various areas has become a must,” referring to the resolution of regional issues and terrorist inspired violence.  This exchange of dialogue further shows that the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey remains a priority for the former in fighting al Qaeda.

Conclusion

Perhaps this is the beginning of a new relationship which will have a solid foundation and a healthier rapport between these two nations compared to the past.  The United States has had a habit of pushing Turkey out of the way to satisfy its own needs in the region but Obama is opening up a new path for this relationship. Although it is unlikely that the two will walk hand in hand, at least they are showing a willingness to be closer. The U.S. is not demanding Turkey’s support on matters of vital interest in the region; they are consulting with them on those issues.  Obama is realizing what past presidents have not, that Turkey is playing a growing role in the international arena and will no longer be sidestepped in world politics.  Turkey is not only facing the west anymore, it is playing a key role in solving crises within the region.  Turkey’s neighbors no longer view it as a pawn of the west but a gateway to it.  The United States has finally realized what Obama spoke of on that podium: that Turkey’s greatness lies in its ability to be at the center of things.

Stacy Maruskin (JTW)