According to the decision made by the Kyrgyz government in February 2009, the Manas military base was to be emptied and closed within six months. It has been said that the process of discharging the U.S. forces had already started. The U.S. army commander responsible for the Manas base, Christopher Bence, gave information during his statement on June 15 that they had already began moving equipment to other bases. He also stated that the Kyrgyz government wants the U.S. to empty the base by August 18, as required.
The Kyrgyz authorities’ declaration regarding the closure of Manas base in May can also be evaluated as Kyrgyzstan’s exact approach to closure of the base. It has been said that the U.S.’ $30 million offer to Kyrgyzstan to renew Kyrgyzstan’s air traffic control system would also not change the closure decision. Even though the Kyrgyz officials always expressed that the shutdown decision given by the parliament in February is the ‘final decision’, the U.S. authorities had indicated that negotiations are ongoing.
Afghanistan’s Approach to Kyrgyzstan’s U-Turn on Closure Decision
Two weeks before the Kyrgyz government’s decision to leave the base open, Afghan president Hamid Karzai was involved in discussions and requested his Kyrgyz counterpart, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, keep the Manas military base open beyond August as well. It is possible to assess this situation as an important indicator that Afghanistan is very much open to America’s support in fighting against Taliban within its borders. Bakiyev’s annulment of the closure decision just two weeks after Karzai’s request could show a shifting balance of power in the region. Karzai has sent a diplomatic letter to his counterpart Bakiyev that says if the base closes as it was decided earlier, the new atmosphere in Afghanistan will concern him regarding the security and stability of the region. Furthermore, Karzai said that the insecure environment of Afghanistan could have a negative impact on Kyrgyzstan and other countries in the region.
Russia’s Approach
Kyrgyz president Bakiyev, who seized power after the Tulip Revolution, has increased Kyrgyz relations with Russia and completely returned its face to Russia on its foreign policy since that date. The Kyrgyz government gave the closure decision as a result of pressure from Russia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and local pressures in the region. We will need more time before better understanding why Kyrgyzstan changed its decision.
President Bakiyev announced the shutdown decision during an official visit to Russia and the news was immediately released after Russia promised to give $150 million in aid and a $2 billion loan. Although it seemed as if Russia had forced Kyrgyzstan to give such a decision, Russia has claimed that it could not have made such a request or pressured for such a decision to be made. The Russian authorities have said the decision was entirely associated with Kyrgyzstan’s internal affairs and have tried to give the impression that they excluded themselves from the issue. Right after the recent developments in the region, Russia announced its plan to increase the number of aircraft in their own military base within the borders of Kyrgyzstan.
It seems that Russia welcomed the progress en route for revoking the Kyrgyz government’s decision to close the U.S. military base beyond August. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed his satisfaction with Kyrgyz government’s decision on June 25. Russian general Nikolai Makarov also stated during the ongoing negotiations on Friday that Russia has a positive approach to the developments. This warm relationship between the U.S. and Russia might lead to a military cooperation agreement that is expected to be signed by both parties in the U.S.-Russia summit will be held in Moscow in July. This step will move the relations to an upper level. These warm developments in the region can be seen as the normalization of relations, which were in a bad temper after Russia’s invasion to Georgia in August 2008. Indeed, the positive results that will be gained from the operations carried out in Afghanistan against Taliban and al-Qaeda will definitely address the interests of both countries.
Importance of the Manas Military Base for the Obama Administration
Immediately following its inception in 2001, the Manas facility became the main base for the U.S.’ operations held against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan just after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Following the decline of American-Uzbek relations and closure of the U.S. military base in Uzbekistan in 2005, the Manas base has been the top priority for the U.S. as the only American base in Central Asia.
Washington has been trying to convince Kyrgyzstan to keep the base open since February and was sincere about what it really wants. It was also expected from all parties that Washington would push for it until the last moment. According to the Obama administration’s new Afghanistan strategy, the U.S. will closely cooperate with Central Asian countries and expect their logistical support regarding the ongoing war in Afghanistan. Therefore, if we evaluate the Kyrgyz government’s new decision in the light of the U.S.’ new Afghanistan strategy, this could be seen as a foreign policy success for the Obama administration. The successes that will be achieved in the diplomatic field, an important element of the new Afghanistan strategy, will provide an advantage for the U.S. and undoubtedly strengthen the U.S.’ hand in terms of fighting against terrorism in the region. At this point, the Kyrgyz government’s decision to keep the base open even though the closing date was just two months away and Russia’s positive approach to this new deal can be evaluated as the Obama administration’s success in the field of diplomacy.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, had a meeting with high-level Russian military officials in Moscow on June 26 following the Kyrgyz parliament’s decision. Admiral Mullen said he welcomed the Kyrgyz parliament’s endorsement of a new lease agreement and assessed the decision as a friendly one. Admiral Mullen added that the important thing for the U.S. was to continue operations in Afghanistan and the new agreement will enable them to do that.
According to Kyrgyz reports, the annual rent of the Manas base increased from $17.4 million to $60 million. Thus, the U.S. didn’t lose the Manas base, which is the home base for fighting terrorism in Afghanistan. The U.S. officials’ statements mainly say that the Manas base was saved and this was succeeded with minimum cost for them. There is no doubt that the cost of establishing a new military base in or around Central Asia would be much higher for the U.S. Of course the annual rent of the base is not the only cost for the U.S. In addition to the annual rent, the U.S. will spend $30 million to establish a new navigation system and $37 million to build storage and new aircraft parking areas. Washington has also promised to help Kyrgyzstan with $51.5 million to fight against terrorism and drug trafficking and will also support economic development in the country.
Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said that the new deal would be beneficial for both countries. “They obviously have a great stake in what’s happening in that region, as do we. And we look forward to continue to work with them to supply our troops in Afghanistan so that we can help with the overall security situation in the region. There is give and take in any negotiation, and I think we arrived at a place where we both felt comfortable,” Morrell said.
It is not possible to say things are progressing well for both the U.S. and neighboring countries in Afghanistan. It is a positive development that the two great powers that want to be active and influential in the region, the U.S. and Russia, have agreed on the new decision. Afghanistan’s support for military operations in its own territory and its request to keep the base open are interesting. How all these developments generate a result will be explicit after the Obama administration takes concrete steps in Afghanistan.
Salih Dogan
USAK Center for Central Asian and Caucasian Studies
Edited by Kaitlin MacKenzie
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hWM12_br6adVtzxxb9uXzkjXpEKAD992NMUO1
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