Apart from having a dab hand at business bargaining and carpet weaving, playing politics too is at their fingertips. And whenever you think of ‘Persian politicking’, in particular, the first thing that strikes your mind is the June 12 ballot box – the 10th since the revolution – that will produce a president for Iranians amidst an ailing energy market and oil prices pushing hard to hold $50 and a 30- percent-plus inflation.
Now that the fortnight long feasting (Nouruz) is no more, it is back in ballot business for former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is expected to try another term under the Principlist camp. Former premier and reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi – staunchly supported by Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and a significant section of the youth -- and former parliamentary speaker and cleric Mehdi Karroubi are running under the Reformist platform.
Although the candidates are yet to be finalised, the polling push has already begun, and there is sure to be a string of speculations about the candidates themselves and the finale. Opposition groups are beset with bickering amidst each other but are unanimous on one ultimate case: Mr Ahmadinejad must go for good – no matter how they want it. And how they are going to do it, their strategy seems to focus on the foreign policy, including his nuclear tinderbox that has led the country towards international isolation. His persistent war of words with Jerusalem might be a tenacious target for them, too. Curiously, the country is home to the Jewish community that has collapsed to about 25,000 from 85,000 at the time of the revolution -- the biggest community in the Middle East outside Israel.
But, ultimately, it is hardly all about direct-or-indirect chit-chats with Washington or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation for that matter, but about the country’s economy that is judged to be the colossal case, and this time it is 67-year-old Mr Mousavi, not Seyyed Khatami, who Mr Ahmadinejad must see each other face to face. Ordinary people hardly care two hoots whether there will be ever a face-to-face rendezvous with Mr Obama or whether Mr Ahmadinejad will ever plug up his nuclear work, but their chief concern is how to pay their rents and feed their families.
Despite the foreign-policy problems Mr Ahmadinejad has had since taking office in 2005, the public, including his own supporters, point at the president for failing to fulfil his economic promises favour of the middle-class and low-income people. Realistic economic reforms appear to the only way for the opposition to inspire Iranians to the ballot box and bring about a change.
And yet, even the soft-spoken Seyyed had underestimated the immensity of the political panorama that later led the charismatic character to sacrifice his candidacy for the sake of Mr Mousavi, known for his economic know-how and tighter ties with labour unions, having already proved his skills as crisis manager during the 1980-88 war when he was premier.
Mr Ahmadinejad won the election four years ago because he had fundamentally focussed on the economy, now he might just as well lose this one for the very fundamental reason. Sceptics say since Mr Mousavi ideologically toes the same line as that of Mr Ahmadinejad – pro-Islamism, anti-Americanism and pro-Leftist economy -- even some of the president’s saddened supporters should switch to his side. Funnily, just as supporters cheered Mr Ahmadinejad in 2005 as their Islamic Robin Hood, Mr Mousavi’s supporters currently call him ‘the hero supporting the poor’.
There are other reasons for Mr Mousavi’s popularity too: his close cooperation with the Seyyed – the latter’s advisor from 1997 to 2005 – and more moderate and more open to reforms. “When we had a lot of foreign currency income [through oil exports], we did not plan anything for the [current] recession phase,” Mr Mousavi says, assailing Mr Ahmadinejad’s economic policies. “Nobody [in the Ahmadinejad government] listened to economic and political experts who had warned that there would be ups and downs.”
Some suspect hardly might Mr Mousavi magnetise the masses as the Seyyed did in the 1997 and 2001 elections. Recent data distributed by the Central Bank shows sinking standard of living, increasing income inequality and corruption prompting the country’s economists to confess to a catastrophic condition in the next two years. Speaking of ‘corruption’, the country has currently 1.2 million addicts and 800,000 ‘recreational’ users though non-government organisations claim the total number of drug users is as high as 5 million.
Nowadays, Mr Ahmadinejad has kept aloof from repeating his earlier slogans, now scarcely seen in his speeches. But he has reasons for his strange silence: the social welfare indicators for 2005 grew about 6.5 percent compared to 2004, but in 2006 by only three percent. In 2006, the income gap went up as well -- the chief culprit behind the increasing inflation. Her revenues now are one billion dollars every three days -- an income unprecedented in the country’s history. The plummeting pace of foreign investment as a percentage of the gross domestic product has lunged at its lowest level in the past decade. Effects are already evident on the country’s power network, or many of the areas – especially the north – where water supplies are suffering.
There are even worse fears that the total value of goods and services imports in the economy could reach and even exceed the eight-billion-dollar figure meaning Iranians could be importing about $1,200 for every individual. The bank’s facts and figures too flash fewer than 800,000 jobs created each year – in contrast to the government’s claim of 120,000 jobs it created in 2006. Tongue can be always a politico’s fiercest foe or friend – no matter where in the world -- and Labour Minister Mohammad Jahromi is no exception either.
The minister has run into a lot of flak by reformist newspaper Etemad rubbishing his remarks on the nature of the new jobs, quoting Mr Jahromi as saying some 1.95 million had joined the workforce in the past two years, adding that 600,000 had formal work contracts with the requisite social and health assurance. In a nutshell, his remarks revealed that more than 1.3 million must have irregular or informal jobs.
As for the mid-ranking cleric, Mr Karroubi suffered a sound setback in February 2004 when he lost his seat despite being one of the few reformist candidates allowed to take part. Now he says he seeks better ties with Washington though he does fiercely follow the line of the total recall for the latter to bring about bigger changes in her Iran policy. Once a cleric, always a cleric: and this is exactly what some of the cleric’s critics consider him, since as a cleric he is unwilling to challenge the clerical establishment head-on over reforms.
Where all this is going to end, it is hard to tell and yet no doubt Mr Ahmadinejad’s re-election – or the return of conservatives, to put it mildly -- is hanging by a thread. A good-bad-and-ugly election climax could be the only thing left for any analyst to think of right now.
Cyrus G. Robati is a freelance writer concentrated on South Asia, Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America
E-mail: c_robati@yahoo.co.uk
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