The background to this current development is an unhappy and bitter one. Ever since the Kyrgyz leadership was forced to accept independence, as independence was never desired nor recommended by the elite, there has been a strenuous divide between the man on the street and the ex-politburo member. One corrupt administration has followed the other. Whilst there has been an incompetent government the opposition has been disunited and ineffectual. The Kyrgyz government believed or wanted to think that it could play off the current unipolar power against the past superpower (which had forcefully occupied it) and make the best of a deal. The mistake in this scenario was and remains the extremely high level of dependency the Kyrgyz elite has on Russia. The Kyrgyz elite, and within this category we can include nearly all the deputies in the national parliament as well as all high-level bureaucrats and intellectuals, prefer to speak Russian rather than their national language. They find it easier to express their viewpoints and emotions in an alien language rather than their ancestor’s language. This is not the fault of the elite as they were ‘educated’ under the USSR, or rather ‘indoctrinated’ under the Soviets. It is a fact that this ‘influence’ has remained and been reinforced in the last two decades or so. The elite have not thought of overcoming this situation, as they are unaware of this cultural imposition.

Furthermore, the elite continue to view the world through a Moscow-centric prism, just as in the old days of the USSR. Bishkek remains a follower of what the ‘party boss’ says in Moscow. The only change is in the person of the big boss, rather than in the character and values. The Bolshevik Party has been replaced by equally authoritarian political parties in Russia and Kyrgyzstan but the relationship between the two remains identical: that of master and slave, in that order.

The Kyrgyz elite continue to pursue the lifestyle that was imposed on them by the Russians, their clothes, drinking habits, system of education, administration, law enforcement, military, civil code and the like have remained in a void since the collapse of the USSR. They receive their news from Russian television channels read Russian language newspapers and write their correspondence in Russian as well as speaking Russian.

There has been no concerted effort to change this system and implement a ‘national’ alternative. This is not surprising given the depth and scope of the indoctrination and dependency over the last century. It is normal for the elite created by the Soviet Union to continue to admire and follow Russian leadership; anything contrary to this would be anathema. Therefore, bearing all this in mind the recent declaration by the Kyrgyz President of closing down the American airbase in his country should not come as a surprise to close followers. This may be summed up perhaps as ‘eastern cunningness’ or rather perhaps as a ‘balanced strategy’ or even to borrow from neighbouring Kazakhstan, as a version of ‘multi-vector foreign policy’.

               Whatever the case may be, the Kyrgyz President hopes to maximise his gains which is perfectly natural and normal for any given head of state. He desires to bargain for the best deal he can for the prime real estate of his capital’s airport. It must be remembered that the Kyrgyz Republic is the only country in the world to house air bases by both the Russians and the Americans, with both being less than 100 kilometres apart! The major difference between the two being that while the Americans are charged for their air base the Russians pay nothing for theirs as it comes under the umbrella security arrangements of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

               Some have accused the Kyrgyz of being for sale for the Americans to purchase. This is very unfair as buying something such as an apartment or car is for life, or until it has ceased useful existence. That is something the Kyrgyz elite have never done with the Americans. They have only leased the Manas air base; thereby they have ‘rented’ it - just as one rents an apartment or a car, when the lease runs out you either agree to pay the new price or return it, which is the dilemma the Americans will face very soon. Therefore, as far as the Americans are concerned, the Kyrgyz elite can never be bought, only rented for a limited time, until they revert back to their pre-conceived owners.

                              This perception of eternal symbiosis with the Russian Federation is not, however, shared by the locals. There is a small and so far, silent minority that is aware of their historic origins as well as culture, religion and language to name but three. They are well aware that the true father of the state of Kyrgyzstan is none other than Joseph Stalin. They also oppose what the current leadership is accepting, namely the continuation of the status quo of Soviet times. They clamour for closer relations with the Turkic world, with their Islamic brethren as well as democratic nations; any state other than the authoritarian Russian Federation. Given the fact that the Kyrgyz Republic is not a democracy, the voice of this minority is not listened to by the government nor parliament.  Therefore, one needs to clearly demarcate criticism levelled at the elite from the ordinary citizen. The ordinary people still remain in the clench of a huge state apparatus which gets more corrupt by the week, month and year. This can be clearly evidenced in the sphere of higher education where literally all but one or two institutions of higher education are bereft of corruption. Such a situation naturally does not bear well for the future as these future minds and citizens are socialised into accepting that corruption is the only way to move forward and allow them to survive and prosper.

For Americans, President Bakiev’s declaration is worthy of attention but unimportant. Why? It is worthy of attention as President Obama has publicly declared Afghanistan as a primary foreign policy objective, advocating   increasing the American military presence in that country. Given the fact that the Manas air base is very important to achieve this objective, Bakiev’s statement in Moscow needs to be paid attention.

Though why is it unimportant? It is unimportant because the U.S. is currently deliberating a financial stimulus package that runs into the hundreds of billions, close to a trillion dollars to kick-start the American economy so that it may speedily overcome the recession. The financial loan that the Kyrgyz president has been offered from Moscow is $2 billion. The rent the Americans pay for the Manas airbase is less than $200 million a year. Alternative bases exist in Eastern Europe and the Gulf region, which will cost more than $200 million dollars. Given the fact President Obama has paid so much importance to Afghanistan, the extra cost of relocating Manas airbase is not a large burden on the American taxpayer. If it so desired, Washington could well match and surpass the loan Moscow offered. Though now Washington is weighing its own options, just as President Bakiev is venturing, as there are many potential nations willing to lease their territory for the ‘war on terror’.

For many it is rather sad to see a Turkic nation with a subservient Russophile leadership succumb to a carrot and stick approach from Moscow. The Kyrgyz Republic needs funds desperately not solely due to the current global financial crisis but due to domestic corruption. It’s economy has frittered away the various financial packages it has received over the last few years, therefore, remaining in a vulnerable state highly dependent on remittances.  It is due to these factors that international lenders are unwilling to allow the Kyrgyz Republic to borrow from them; all except it seems, the Russian Federation. It is a fact that the Americans are too disinterested, the EU too far away, the Turks too weak and the Chinese too content to pay much attention to the Kyrgyz Republic.

This leaves the Russian Federation free to emulate a tried and tested method from the 1930s, where a militarily and economically powerful, though regionally feared state offers economic enticements and aid to lock in weaker states within its sphere of influence.  Had the Bakiev government earnestly tried to curtail and derail corruption it may not have faced the economic downturn it now witnesses. A final point to ponder is if the Russian loan agreement goes ahead how much of the $2 billion will really enter the real economy and how much of it the pockets of the deputies in parliament and the cronies of the president? When the Kyrgyz Parliament comes to debate whether to support or reject the President’s initiative this question will be on the minds of all international observers. Come what may, we are witnessing the continuation of an aggressive Russian foreign policy activism in what it terms it’s ‘near abroad’ that began the day the Olympic Games began in 2008.

The likelihood of this particular Russian strategy being successful in the rest of Central Asia depends somewhat on whether the Kyrgyz authorities do actually terminate the lease on Manas airbase. Even if this particular outcome is realised, there is little to suggest apart from Tajikistan which is already within the Russian orbit, whether the other three Turkic States will change their policies. All three possess natural resources (Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in abundance); Turkmenistan whilst officially proclaiming ‘neutrality’, which is difficult to understand in the current environment, has never obstructed Moscow in any major foreign policy venture and is unlikely in the future. The Uzbeks under their authoritarian leader Karimov, bend disproportionally towards the prevailing wind that is only when it is a hurricane from the west or a gentle eastern breeze. Kazakhstan, on the other hand treads very carefully due to its large Russian minority in foreign affairs and would find itself closer to the Russian orbit if the Kyrgyz implement what is being forced upon them. The world awaits what the final decision of the Kyrgyz parliament will be.

Dr. Sureyya Yigit
Founding Director: Social Science Research Centre
International Ataturk Alatoo University         
Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic.