History invariably repeats itself. But in the techno age even history is running at top speed. Socio-economic and cultural changes that generally took centuries to develop and take shape in the past are materializing within decades if not years.
Much has changed in the Middle East since 1948 when the modern State of Israel was created. The Arabs in general were reeling from centuries of Ottoman rule and decades of British/French rule/mandate. Their young and fragile new states lacked infrastructure, resource management, skills and even identity and purpose. After over 13 centuries of having a structured Muslim hierarchy with the Khalif on top of the pyramid, the Muslim world lost its Khalifat with the toppling of the Ottoman Empire in 1924 that system was totally dismantled. The Khalif was meant to be the successor of Muhammed, but unlike his Catholic counterpart the Pope, the Khalif was both the ultimate religious and political leader.
Early Jewish migrants to Palestine faced an enemy that had no idea about what was to come. When Palestinians were driven away by Jewish settlers official Arab radio stations were encouraging them to leave, telling them that the Arab governments would host them for a week or two before they could return home. The rest is history.
Arab nationalism and the intention to liberate Palestine did not become a serious matter until after the Nasser revolution of 1952. Nasser rose to prominence in 1956 when he nationalized the Suez Canal and prevented Israeli ships from using it. The young and charismatic officer achieved stardom in the Arab world. His photographs adorned almost every Arab living room from “the ocean to the Gulf”, that is from the Atlantic Ocean to the Arabian Gulf. He was believed to be “the one” who would restore the great Arab pride, world stature, unity, cultural stature, international importance, and last but not least, the one to destroy Israel.
Nasser fell on his sword in 1967 when Israel single handedly crippled his air-force in no time and occupied all of Palestine, that is; Gaza strip and the West Bank together with the whole of Sinai and the Golan Heights. In June 1967 Israel scored a military victory of biblical proportions and reciprocally the Arabs reached their lowest point in their history. At that time it was believed and predicted that the Talmudic aspiration of Greater Israel was only a couple of decades away. The very mention of the word “Israel” signaled unspeakable fear and apprehension in the minds of most Arabs. Arabs genuinely believed that approximately every ten years Israel would strike, each time gaining more land, creating more refugees, whilst the region’s Arabs could only sit back and wait for their impending doom.
Amidst this hopeless and desperate predicament, Fatah, led by Arafat, rose from the ashes. For a change, news media in the Arab world were talking about Israeli casualties, Israeli fear, and Israeli plans being obstructed by those who opposed them. Arafat rose to a new hero status and Syria and Sadat’s Egypt scored a military victory, though modest, against Israel in 1973. There were signs of change on the horizon and ever since the immediate period following the infamous 1967 victory, these signs accelerated with growing momentum. It is quite a plausible argument that Israel reached its height in might and expanse after the Six Day War of June 1967. Ever since that day, Israel has been going through a treacherous slippery slide. This demise is the result of many factors; some are regional, others international and others internal.
In hindsight it could be said that Israel’s 1967 victory was a disaster in disguise. Forty odd years after occupying the West Bank, Israel is still battling with the people of that land, sometimes militarily and at other times politically. Three decades or so after the occupation of the West Bank Israel finally realized that it has to return the West Bank or at least some of it to its rightful owners. The costs of occupying the West Bank include the carnage of suicide bombers, countless situations of political turmoil, military clashes, enormous financial costs and mounting world outrage just to name a few. The doves of Israeli politics realized that those costs exceeded the emotional and actual financial value of the real estate gained by force. The West Bank remains a burden for Israel. It is damned if it gives it back to the Palestinians and damned if it doesn’t.
The cost of occupying Gaza speaks for itself, particularly the current war which exceeds by far any military confrontation to date in the West Bank. This is a full-scale war, a war that even if Israel wins will forever tarnish Israel’s reputation, bringing condemnation from previous friends and possibly resulting in publicized human rights and war crimes charges and trials of Israeli officials in The Hague.
The war booty of Sinai did not buy Israel any more than peace with Egypt. “Land for Peace” was the name of the deal. But this peace is as fragile as the political situation in Egypt at present. The likelihood of the Muslim Brotherhood attaining power in Egypt looks more probable by the day. In this event Israel will find itself in a “no land no peace” situation with Egypt.
In contrast, all this time the Assad father and son in Syria sat back, endorsing and supporting groups and militia committed to fighting Israel. As those confrontations intensify and become more frequent, Syrian soil and sky remain virtually unscathed. The Assad policy appears to tackle its enemy on its turf leaving Syrian turf a safe haven for growth, development and support for the anti-Israeli resistance. If this analysis is accurate then without any doubt the Assads have done a well in achieving this objective.
Israel, in 1968, lost its first battle in the small Jordanian border town of Karameh. It lost its first major war with Syria and Egypt in 1973. However, it was not humiliated until it was driven out of Lebanon in May 2000 by Hizbollah, a militia group, a rogue group in the eyes of many, a bunch of terrorists in the eyes of the West. After an agonizing occupation of Lebanon that started partially in 1978 with the initial intention of driving off the PLO, Israel invaded all of Lebanon. It occupied Beirut in 1982 and eventually withdrew under international pressure leaving a 40 to 60 kilometer buffer zone under its control in South Lebanon. Eighteen years and many casualties later, Israel was forced to leave Lebanon. Barak, Israel’s PM at the time, referred to this defeat as a “strategic withdrawal”.
Irrespective of how Israeli politicians “sold” the idea of this defeat to their electorates, in the minds of the antagonists of Israel, which “withdrawal” was regarded as a major defeat of the Israelis. After all, it was the first time in Israel’s history that it withdrew from an occupied territory unilaterally and without any trade-offs. If anything, in this withdrawal Israel did not only lose territory, but it lost a huge liquid asset; the Litani River. It would be foolish to consider that the Israelis would let go of such a huge water supply on the basis of a “strategic withdrawal”.
Fear was a major “ace” up Israel’s sleeve after their 1967 success. That fear that once existed in Arab minds and hearts was now gone. The “undefeatable army” of Moshe Dayan was no more. To add insult to injury, the July war of 2006 with Hizbollah created even more humiliation of the once mighty IDF. Israel had to soul search when it commissioned Winograde to report and recommend on these failings. The Knesset, on a bi-partisan basis, took on all the recommendations. With those recommendations implemented, and with the top gun Barak back in charge as defense minister, the Israeli war machine considered a Gaza invasion as akin to a walk in the park. Eighteen days later Hamas is still launching rockets at the heartland of Israel.
No one really knows what the striking force of Syria is. Israel struck Syrian targets on several occasions in the last two to three years and there was no military retaliation. The calculating and patient Assad may well be keeping the element of surprise till show-time. Knowing that Assad and Putin are strategic allies and close personal friends, this must be of concern for Israel.
As if Israel does not have enough enemies in the Arab world. The policies of the United States in the Middle East have been primarily focused on ensuring the military superiority of Israel, its continuity and protection. In doing so, America has invaded and occupied Afghanistan and invaded and pillaged Iraq based on fabricated motives. By and large, the Muslim world (over one billion people) regard the US-Israel alliance as a representation of the devil incarnate or at the least a personal affront. In every so-called attempt of fighting terrorism, this alliance is recruiting more enemies and instilling more radical thinking into the minds of Muslim and Arab youth. It seems like every time this alliance “eliminates” one enemy combatant, it is creating many more. There is now a huge wave of anger and outrage sweeping the globe including the heart of American, Europe and Australia where millions of Muslims are naturalized citizens.
Today, after eight years of Bush administration, Bush will perhaps be best remembered as the man whose actions have done little to combat terrorism and unfortunately backfired by inspiring the creation of countless organizations and driving the recruitment for dogmatically trained soldiers ready to give their lives for a number of related causes. Potentially such an “army” has a recruitment base of one billion people. What a stark contrast to the army consisting of a handful of ill-equipped Palestinian volunteers and young and equally ill-equipped armies of puppet Arab regimes back in 1948.
There is no doubt that the military balance in the Middle East is changing. The once mighty IDF appears to find itself unable to score a convincing and easy win against an enemy as small as Gaza even after it suffered two years of blockade. Add Iran to the equation and the balance of power would no doubt make Israel’s status in the Middle East more precarious.
Changes in the demographic balance do not look any better. The Arab population of Israel in 1948 was reduced significantly after a massive exodus to neighbouring Arab countries. Jewish migrants took over a land that was left virtually uninhabited. In its land acquisition of 1967, Israel found itself occupying a highly populated territory. This population has posed as management nightmare to Israel as mentioned above. By virtue of the fertility of the wombs of those mothers who did not flee Palestine in 1948 on one hand and the reduced influx of Jewish migrants on the other hand, the demographics within Israel proper are rapidly changing to the disadvantage of the Jewish majority. This trend, if it continues, according to the laws of mathematics, may one day lead to an Arab majority.
To compound the issues, Israel is primarily an “imported” country that is not independently viable. Credit must be given to the remarkable achievements in industry, agriculture and other areas but, Israel remains dependent on imported aid. To ensure this continued assistance, the Jewish migrants did not just bring in people and skills but also left in place a support base from the Jewish Diaspora. Better known as the “Jewish Lobby”, this body has been thus far very successful in ensuring a flow of funds, strategic and political support and unprecedented backing primarily from the United States and its close allies. The US goes one step further by vetoing UN sanctions against Israel’s violations against human rights and violations of UN resolutions. Israel has become a state that is above international law, a state that is totally unaccountable even to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
As the pampered child of the United States, the world’s only “New-Order” superpower, Israel has been literally given a license to kill. One has to remember that this license is contingent upon the existence and the ability of the licensee to grant it. America is now facing two major dilemmas; a rising financial giant called China and an economy that is showing major signs of fatigue. If the current Chinese growth maintains its momentum, macro-economists tip China to become the major economic power within 20 years.
History tells us that with wealth comes military might. It would not be unforeseeable to witness China thwarting the U.S and challenging its stature as the greatest military power within that same period. Unless Israel with its Jewish lobby manages to get into bed with China, it may in the near future; find itself backed by a bankrupt, toothless Tiger….oops Eagle.
The change in the nature of the bi-lateral relationship between the U.S and Israel may come from America itself. If the US is truly serious about improving its image in the Middle East, if it is truly serious about fighting terrorism, it may soon (and should) realize that best battles can be won by making friends rather than combating enemies; especially when the enemy is as elusive and invisible as some Al-Qaida-type organizations.
If or when America realizes that its support to Israel is coming at a great cost, a cost that it can do without, then its alliances in the Middle East may turn a corner in the very near future. Moreover, irrespective of how Obama pans out to be, he did not seem to rely on the endorsement of the Jewish Lobby to be elected. Perhaps this election win sets a precedent for all presidential and other office-bearer hopefuls in the future. If or when such a day comes the American support for Israel will no longer be synonymous with American national security. This realization, on its own, could spell the end of Israel at least as we know it.
Israel is like an inflated balloon, with cracks and holes. It remains inflated because there is a pump that is pumping it with air 24/7. There are pins also pointing at that balloon from the inside and the outside. This pump will only function for so long before it slows down or stops. The pins are likely to increase in number and sharpness.
Israel has the ability to act with wisdom and indeed could find a win/win situation for all. But, sadly, Israel is not learning from its mistakes and continues to live, think and act with short vision and in isolation from the realities on the ground. Israel persists, as is evident in its current war on Gaza, to believe that what force cannot achieve more force can.
Susan Safi & Iman Safi
Beirut, Lebanon
13 January 2009
Turkey-Japan Relations: The Need to Think Beyond Trade
