This commentary is from USAK's Energy Review Newsletter

http://www.turkishweekly.net/energyreview/TurkishWeekly-EnergyReview2.pdf

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Turkey needs a huge amount of energy investment to sustain its fast growing economy. Where this money come from is a big question. But the rising oil prices and dependency on foreign natural gas and oil has inflated the import numbers. In 2006, Turkey has paid 26 billion USDs for imported energy sources. In 2007, this number is expected to increase at least %5, around 1 billion USD.

So with basic math, one can easily deduct that in 5 years time, this money adds up to 5 billion dollars, which is more than enough to finance the cost of a 4500 MWs of nuclear plant construction. But the finance side of the problem is not that easy…

After canceling (or delaying) the privatization of electricity distribution, there have been quite a bit of disappointment among both foreign and domestic investors. The government has reasoned the decision as a means to protect customers from price increases and preparing a better privatization framework. But the result of this decision will probably have a negative impact for financing a possible nuclear project.

As a capital intensive investment, a nuclear power plant construction is a big risk for investors especially in a market environment. There has to a secure investment environment. But this is never enough; government involvement and solid support of the state is needed.

When considering the political environment of Turkey and turmoil in the energy industry, the decision for a nuclear power plant had to be supported by other state institutions including the National Security Council (MGK).

National Security Council is the country’s higher council for discussing the security concerns of Turkey. While discussing all sorts of security concerns, bypassing a nuclear power plant decision is a cheap way of escaping the responsibilities of such a project that will have an impact on country’s energy security and independence, hence national security for a period of at least 50 years.

With such a decision, the project can be rescued from populist, everyday politics. But a pessimistic and realist guess is, the military personal will play the safe side by avoiding confrontation with the anti-nuclear Turkish public.

Even financial and executive problems have been solved; this anti-nuclear public opinion had to be converted. The technical and financial solutions had to be coupled with a well-informed public opinion until the end of construction for securing the completion of the plant.

But the things are not good on this side either. The sentimentality against nuclear energy in the country , mainly in the Black Sea region where Sinop, a possible location for the project is located, the over confidence in country’s natural resources and highly ideological NGOs are the main obstacles.

Finding solutions to all these problems requires quite a head scratch. Adding up to all these, is the unfortunate history of the past experiences in the energy sector which can be summarized with the Ottoman’s Janissary soldiers’ march.  Two steps forward one step back.

Despite all these, Mr. Guler, Minister for Energy, has the historic chance. His firmness and stance is an indication of his commitment, but the road to civilian nuclear technology is not bed of roses and Mr. Guler is aware of it. But without an attractive investment environment, National Security Council decision and a well-informed public opinion, his roadmap for an energy secure Turkey is doomed by political games.