Ten billion dollars is a small price to pay to
become aninternational player. That's what Russia did this week,
forfeiting mostof Syria's debt. In a formal declaration the two
countries renewedtheir once intimate relationship, which began amidst
the Cold War inthe mid-Fifties and ended with the fall of the Soviet
Republic a decade ago.
For Syria it is a win-win deal: Get a big ally who will protect
you from the prolific threats of the US and act as your patron in the
international arena. Get him to wipe out most of what you owe him, sell
you
weapons and expand your economic trade. Get him to be your broker in a
peace deal with Israel. Get him to say you're not so bad after all.
What's in it for Russia? Russia's ambitions are
growing toSoviet-era size. It wants to be involved in the international
gamesthat are now the recreation of the European Union and the
UnitedStates. But the US is not letting it get involved in the
Arab-Israeliconflict, and it has little say in the Iraq issue because
it refused tomake war on a country that owed it so much money.
By renewing political and military relations with countries the
US
has blackballed, the downsized former superpower aims to bring back the
glory of its Soviet-era days when it played countries like chess
pieces.
Russia's only hope for influence in the Middle East is by collecting the countries the world's superpower has disavowed.
Four years ago Russia made a similar move to renew relationswith Iran
when it sent its defense minister to Teheran to begin a "newphase of
military and technical cooperation." It was the first visit ofa Russian
defense minister since the Iranian revolution in 1979. The visit in
December 2000 came one month after Moscow announced it wasbreaking the
secret pact it made with Washington in 1995 not to sell arms to Iran.
Syria is a key ally, illustrated by the fact that it is the
only foreign country where Russia still holds a naval base, and it's
now the only Arab country where Moscow can wield its influence in the
Middle East.
Russia isn't worried about Damascus's bad-boy reputation. In
the joint declaration signed this week, Moscow takes on the role of
chaperone of Syria's defense program to prevent the production of
weapons of mass destruction. This gives Moscow the added distinction of
being a member of the "war on terror" club.
It was therefore embarrassing to Moscow when a local daily
reported that Russia was going to sell the Iskander-E missiles to
Syria. Israel was quick to claim that the weapon, which can penetrate
Israeli defenses, will get into terrorists hands. Both sides denied the
report of the imminent sale, which news agencies have said was through
a private arms manufacturer and not the government.
Syrian state newspapers say the report is an Israeli
"fabrication," meant "as a pretext to escalate [Israel's] hostile
onslaught
against Syria."Russia probably will stop the alleged transaction to
Syria, to avoid sabotaging its warming relations with Israel and its
plans to broker peace between the two arch enemies.
You can't play referee in the Middle East ball game if Israel doesn't want you on the field.
Source: Jerusalem Post, Jan. 27, 2005
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