Monday, 7 December 2009By Sedat Laciner
Following Syria, Albania, Qatar and Libya, the visas with Jordan have now been abolished as well. There are new countries in line, both from the Middle East and other regions; however, the visit to Jordan by President Abdullah Gul witnessed more important agreements other than the removal of visas.
The limitations on trade between the two countries were substantially removed through the ìMutual Administrative Aid Agreement Concerning Customs Issuesî and ìPartnership Agreement Establishing Free Trade Zoneî. Success is still limited to paper, because many documents can be signed in the Middle East, but the implementation of what is written takes much longer.
President Gul arrived in Jordan on 2 December 2009 with Minister of State Aliye Kavaf, Minister of Industry and Trade Nihat Erg¸n, parliamentarians, high ranked bureaucrats, diplomats, a crowded business committee and representatives from universities and think tanks including USAK.
The three day visit was like another attempt to expand TurkeyĂs role in the region. President Gul gave importance to the Turkish businessmenĂs bilateral relations as much as he cared about the signed agreements. As a matter of fact, the agreements were the easier part of the visit. The texts had already been prepared prior to the visit and were signed upon arrival. Issues of trust have problem has been resolved on the Jordanian side; signing the agreements can be likened lo serving a cooked meal. However, the problems of businessmen needed urgent care. As the state draws closer to businessmen, they want to be supported by the state more and more. Although they receive more attention than they have in the past, they are not satisfied and they have a right to feel like that. They turn the state attention towards investment, employment and the improvement of TurkeyĂs image. In other words, as the state pats businessmen on the back, and shares in their grievances, businessmen even perform the tasks that the state has to do. President Gul is aware of it, because he is from Kayseri, which is known for its business dealings. His academic background is in the field of economy which also helps him to acknowledge that a significant part of foreign politics includes economy. A great number of businessmen who participated to in the trips have known him since his time in the Foreign Ministry. Consequently, President Gul and his committee discuss the problems of businessmen in almost every meeting in view of the other side; he has done his best to provide access to Turkish companies in the Jordanian markets.
It can be seen that the new Middle Eastern politics of Turkey are based on economic relations; Turkey wishes to develop its political relations on the basis of economy.
Prior to launching the arrangements facilitating free trade with Turkey, Jordan side was frightened. It was saying Ă«If the gates are opened, the developed Turkish economy will swallow us.Ă®
The 'excessive eagernessĂ of Turks to develop relations did not help to decrease their fears, it probably raised them. Due to this, they first asked to Syria and Egypt since both of these countries expressed how they had benefited to great extent thanks to trade liberalization with Turkey. Their praise changed the attitude of Jordan. For instance, Egypt explained that the Turks created more than 60.000 new employments in the country in just last two years. Similarly, Syria appreciated its relations with Turkey. Thus, the concerns of Jordan decreased substantially and it became possible to sign three agreements.
The trade volume between Turkey and Jordan exceeded $450 million in 2008. However, there is a severe imbalance in trade relations in favor of Turkey. While the export of Turkey exceeds $400 million, the export of Jordan to Turkey is not even one tenth of that. A one sided relation is not possible. The relations can only be sustained in an order where both sides gain. Turkey is aware of this fact and is exploring what can be done on the basis of win-win principle.
* The Economy of Jordan and Turkish Entrepreneurship
Jordan is a relatively small country. Its population is around 6.5 million, and at least 60% of this population has Palestinian origin. There are 1.5 million Palestinian refugees within the country and they are living in refugee camps. After the Iraq War, more than 700.000 Iraqis came to Jordan. However, because most of these Iraqis were well-off, this migration had a positive impact on the economy. The countryĂs economy grew more than 7 % during the two years following the Iraq War and the capital, Amman, continues to be like a building site. Formal bids coming into existence with this revenue increase attract Turkish companies. Turkish businessmen in Jordan say the difficulties in private trade are not generally experienced in contracts which are signed by the state.
Jordan does not have a significant industry. Tourism is not unimportant for the countryĂs economy, but it is still a sector under its potential. The country does not have an important natural resource either. Moreover, it has hardly any potable water. Despite this Ă«distressfulĂ scene, the economy in Jordan succeeds in withstanding difficulties, it has strategic importance. Both the US and EU attach great importance to Jordan. Even Israel wants Jordan to stand up and develop in certain ways. Similarly, other Arab countries, especially oil rich Arabs, support Jordan. In this way, Jordan proves its success in turning its political importance to money. In addition, earnings, sent to the country by Jordanians who work in other countries, count also as incomes.
The unemployment rate is around 12 % in the country. When immigrants are considered as part of the countryĂs population, unemployment becomes high enough to upset the balance. In spite of this, one of the most important problems of companies, which plan to invest in the country, is to find workers. Many companies bring their own workers when they invest there or try to find workers from a third country. For example, more than 70 % of approximately 1.500 workers employed by Sahinler company, a textile firm, are from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and other various countries. The reasons for employment of foreign workers include the efforts to decrease the costs and difficulties in finding skilled workers. In fact, Jordanians, when compared to the other Arab countries, are more sophisticated. The literacy rate is more than 90 % unlike the low rates of other Arab countries, and a large part of the population can speak English. However, the business culture is still weak. Lower classes still prefer jobs, and the entrepreneurship remains very weak in higher classes; it is not comparable to the Turkish case. The biggest contribution to the presence of Turkish companies in these countries is the establishment of a culture of entrepreneurship. For instance, many Arabs in Egypt admired Turkish way of business. The facilities that Turkish companies provide such as regular lunch and transportation, fascinated the Arabs and a new business understanding started to flourish there.
The most important contribution of Turkey to Jordan will probably take place in this field. Their relatively liberal Jordan economy will attain a permanent, institutionalized and localized advancement with developmental dynamics.
* Relations with Syria Are Becoming a Model
The leaps made by Turkey in the Middle East mostly began with Syria and the efficiency of this country has been higher. In this regard, the readiness of Syria plays an important role. As a result of the removal of visas, trade liberalization and so forth, the relations among these two countries are growing very differently from the normal standards of the Middle East. According to the impressions of authorities, the rapid advance in relations among Turkey and Syria tempt other Arab countries to establish similar relations. Many countries expect the same attitude from Turkey in its behaviors and treatment towards Syria, and they even complain about lack of actions. Jordan is one of them. Jordan is not content those with only economic agreements; it demands strategic relation akin to those established with Syria and Iraq, and it also has expectations of common cabinet meetings.
As the outcome of strides made by Turkey become more apparent, the actors outside of Turkey become more eager to develop relations. It is clearly understood that Turkey has no hidden agenda in these relations and all sides benefit from improved dealings. Thus, the clouds of fear and mistrust are evaporating.
Now, relations with Syria, Jordan and Egypt are on the rise by centering around trade and investment. In this way, a corridor has opened up. If this corridor can be widened and neighbor countries can be involved in it, a new alternative model in relations will be built up in the Middle East.
Risks
The signed agreements with Jordan and the spirit surrounding it have vital importance. Successes delight all. However, there are some risks. The first risk is the lack of culture in cooperation. Turkey has to get along with these countries and reconcile a number of conflicts amongst those countries that seek a pretext to fight. And despite their Arab origins, these countries have better relations with Turkey. Turkey is trying to change the communication language from one of conflict language to a peaceful one. Its main aim is to turn cooperation into a culture. The advance is quite important and should not be underestimated. However, it should not be forgotten that destroying is easier than building, and this is the Middle East, a region where betrayals and back stabbings have frequently been experienced. The number of powers with bad intentions and interests are very high. The spies of extra-regional countries trickle into confidential buildings and the efforts of Turkey are monitored with suspicion by these powers. When doubt is replaced with enmity, the opposite side will undermine the attempts of Turkey. In other words, the endeavors that were exerted for many years, can be lost within several days. Due to this reason, I cannot know to what extent it is right to exaggerate the steps taken. The messages that Turkey sends to the world should be more cautious. Instead of running fast and being exhausted at once, it would be probably be beneficial to develop slow, yet stable relations.
Another issue is the difficulty in maintaining these concentrated relations with the earlier institutions of Turkey. Turkey cannot only trust the attempts of a handful of people in understanding the region, developing relations and maintaining them. Institutionalized assistance foundations should urgently emerge and the previous ones should work more actively and efficiently.
Politics underpinned by trade should attach great importance to public diplomacy. In recent years, Turkish TV series are in great demand in Arab countries and these films positively affect the image of Turkey. Likewise, the political stance of Turkey deeply affects Arabs like Prime Minister ErdoganĂs attitude in Davos; it paves the way for further attempts made by Turkey in the Middle East. However, Turkey is still weak according to public opinion research, compared to other countries. In the region, there are not any communication channels such as television, radio and journals in Arabic. In addition, there is no Turkish universities in these countries. For instance, both American and German universities were established in Jordan. Similarly, they also have foreign-owned secondary and high schools. Such schools have an impact on public opinion, help to make friends in the administration cadre and elevate the people who are needed in economic relations and know both sides very well. For this reason, it can be beneficial that Turkish universities establish a campus in Amman.
Finally, the most important risk and problem in relations is to establish them with a top-down approach. Turkey describes its approach as a bottom one up. However, despite all efforts on the Turkish side, the reality of the Middle East does not allow this too much. You have to build links continuously with the top in order to develop trade dealings. There is not such a structure in Middle Eastern societies that allow you to improve relations at the bottom. For this reason, sometimes it is simply not enough to convince a king or the head of state. For instance, in Syria, Bashar al-Assad is strongly determined to develop relations and strives to strengthen the links in every domain, but the bureaucracy, as an accumulation of a long past, has troubles to adapt itself to this. Sometimes, even the simplest of regulations can not be implemented for a long time.
Turkey has attempted a difficult task. For now, there is no serious prevention coming from the West. However, there is also no support. In other words, Turkey seems all alone on this road. As the results come, a crowd will probably accompany Turkey, but it is necessary to abstain from evil eyes. Turkey has to be ready against any provocations. It is also necessary to avoid exaggerated explanations with the happiness of success and imagine the Middle East as a rose garden with no thorns.
slaciner@gmail.com
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Monday, 7 December 2009
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