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[jtw analysis] expectations for erdogan's visit to america |
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Monday, 7 December 2009The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will meet today with United States President Barack Obama in Washington. Speculation surrounding the topics of discussion by political analysts and experts in the field of International Relations focus on three main topics. The top priorities to be discussed will most likely include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran’s nuclear program and the current progress in resolving the Nagorno Karabakh dispute between Turkey and Armenia, the latter situation including the issue of when Turkey will proceed in opening its shared border with Armenia.
Last week, Obama announced that there would be a troop increase in Afghanistan of 30,000. The President also asked America’s NATO allies for additional military support at the Hindu Kush. Twenty-five NATO countries have announced that they will deploy an additional 7,000 troops next year. "We are always hopeful of getting even more assistance from Turkey because it is so important," U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said at NATO headquarters in Brussels last week. Before his departure from Turkey for the United States on Sunday, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was specific on his feelings over further troop deployment stating, "Turkey has already done what it can do by boosting its contingent of soldiers there to 1,750 from around 700 without being asked." Erdogan added that the Turkish military and police are ready to train their Afghan counterparts as they have previously done so. Turkey will also continue with health, education and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan; however, it is believed that Obama will also make further requests for Turkey to play a bigger role in the country.
Another topic of importance that could be discussed is the the current progress in talks between Turkey and Armenia. President Obama is a strong proponent for ongoing dialogue between the two and is likely to push for Turkey to open its border to Armenia sooner rather than later. Turkey has been reluctant on the issue pending a pull out by Armenia in the disputed Azerbaijani enclave.
Turkey’s important position in the Middle East as a mediator between the United States, Iran and the Arab world in general are expected to be another issue addressed in bilateral talks. Both sides are in disagreement over the question of the Iranian nuclear program. While the U.S. suspects Iran is operating a covert nuclear weapons development program, Erdogan disputed this suspicion at his visit in Tehran and deemed the initiative as "peaceful." Obama will give Iran until the end of the year to prove its program is for peaceful purposes or it will seek new, multinational sanctions. Washington wants the Turkish position towards sanctions to be clarified. "American policy makers are going to want to use that new relationship with Iran to take tough messages to Tehran about the nuclear issue," argued Turkish specialist Ian Lesser to Bloomberg.
Prime Minister Erdogan also said he would discuss other regional issues such as Iraq and the Middle East with the U.S. president. Turkey has rightfully complained in past years over a lack of U.S. help against Kurdish terrorists that launch attacks on Turkey from Northern Iraq.
Despite a recent clash of opinion between the United States and Turkey over the latter’s ambitious policies in the region, Obama does need Turkey’s help and support for a stable Middle East. Concerns in the U.S. have also risen due to the recent amped up language Erdogan has used against Israel, this too could be addressed.
The last meeting between Prime Minister Erdogan and U.S. President Obama took place in Turkey in early April 2009.
By Marcus Schadlich (JTW)
By Stacy Maruskin (JTW)
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Monday, 7 December 2009
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