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is abbas bluffing? |
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Saturday, 14 November 2009BY FAREED MAHDY*
IDN-InDepthNews Service
ISTANBUL (IDN) - As time passes by, signals emerge that Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas' ìdesireî not to run in the January elections that he unilaterally decreed, might be just a bluff.
In fact, Abbas has been talking about ìintentionsî and ìdesiresî not to go for a new presidential term, while suggesting that he would have another role to play on the Palestinian political stage.
The following may help understand the eventual game:
- Abbas' presidency is illegitimate. His mandate expired last January. He continued in power as a consequence of Israeli war on Gaza.
- Abbas' government is illegitimate. It has been designated by the president without previous discussion and approval by the legitimate Palestinian parliament.
- The only legitimate Palestinian government is the one that emerged from the 2006 elections through which HAMAS won the majority of votes.
- Those elections were democratic, fair and transparent, as certified by Western and international electoral supervisors led by former U.S. president Jimmy Carter.
- Therefore, the sole legitimate Palestinian government is the one formed by electoral winner HAMAS, which was accepted and ratified by both the parliament and president Abbas himself.
- Following Western and Israeli decision to ignore the outcome of Palestinian democratic elections, to boycott HAMAS and to add it to its long list of ìterrorist organisationsî, Abbas took advantage of sharp confrontations with HAMAS, deciding to ìdismissî the legitimate Palestinian government and form his own one in Ramallah, West Bank.
- Abbas therefore appointed Salam Fayyad as primer minister of his government, without consulting with the legitimate parliament or seeking its approval. Instead, the government formed by U.S. educated and International Monetary Fund trained Fayyad was approved by Israel and Western powers.
- According to Palestinian Fundamental Law (Constitution), the president of parliament is to assume presidential functions in case of resignation of the president, over a period of 60 days after which elections should be called.
- Current Palestinian parliament speaker is Aziz Al Douwek, from HAMAS.
- Consequently, the HAMAS majority led legitimate parliament would assume Abbas' functions in case he resigns or does not run in elections.
- With the Western and Israeli support, Abbas and his movement FATAH are still at open war with HAMAS. Therefore, none of them would want a HAMAS-led parliament to hold power and organise elections.
- A likely solution would be that Abbas postpones the January elections and keeps his chair as ìpresident-in-chargeî until the formalisation of so-much-spoken reconciliation with HAMAS and they agree on a new date for the elections.
- The Palestinian Electoral Commission has just ëfacilitatedà an eventual postponement decision by declaring on Nov. 12 that it would not be able to organise the voting process due to ìtechnicalî reasons. These ìtechnicalî reasons are HAMAS' refusal to participate and -- among other ìtechnicalitiesî -- Israel not yet authorising voting to take place in East Jerusalem.
- Such a political move, that is, the postponement, would appear logical now that HAMAS has announced its readiness to sign, with a number of reservations, the reconciliation agreement between Palestinian groups, mainly the one led by Abbas.
- Israel, the U.S. and Europe have repeatedly stated that they would consider dealing with HAMAS in cases it wins forthcoming elections, but on condition that it follows the same policy as Abbas.
- The policy followed consists de facto of full recognition of the state of Israel, full readiness to sit at any negotiation table, to ignore all UN resolutions, to accept whatever concessions are required, and not put any pre-conditions -- and all that though this might result in obtaining some kind of a non-sovereign Palestinian state.
- The fact of the matter is that such a policy has led nowhere.
- All that would take as much time as needed. But for what?
- There is a new-old Israeli proposal on the table -- to announce a provisional Palestinian state with provisional borders and therefore with none of the necessary elements to declare it effectively independent and fully sovereign.
- HAMAS and other Palestinian groups categorically reject such a solution and so says Abbas publicly.
- A new U.S. sponsored negotiating process would lead nowhere, but would consume a sufficient amount of time allowing Tel Aviv to consolidate its policy.
- This policy consists of expanding settlements with no restrictions, totally ìJewishiseî occupied East Jerusalem, have a state without Palestinians, and put them in some kind of ìreservation of aboriginesî.
All that would be highly time consuming -- if only.
Meanwhile, Abbas would remain seated in a presidential chair. At least for some more time. (IDN-InDepthNews/12.11.2009)
* Fareed Mahdy is special correspondent of IDN-InDepthNews Service |
Saturday, 14 November 2009
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