Wednesday, 11 November 2009Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer Kasim, expert at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK) and IR Lecturer at Abant Izzet Baysal University, weighs in on the importance of Turkish foreign policy in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
1.) Is Turkish foreign policy moving in a positive direction?
When we talk about foreign policy it is difficult to say positive or negative because we are talking about quite a relative area in that case, and when any country takes a step in foreign policy, its impact cannot be seen for at least ten years. In my opinion, it was in the post-Cold War era that Turkey began to question its position in world politics.
During the Cold War, things were much simpler; there were two big powers- The United States and the Soviet Union. Turkey aligned itself with the West and as a member of NATO it played the role of shield against the Soviet threat. However, after the Cold War, some people questioned Turkey’s role in the West since the Soviet threat no longer existed. Questions arose as to Turkey’s position and Turkish policymakers decided to look at other areas such as the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. They did not consider these areas as an alternative to Turkey’s Western direction; on the contrary, they considered Turkey’s relations with the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East complimentary with its Western direction. They thought that if Turkey managed to establish concrete relations with these geopolitical areas then Turkey’s value in the eyes of the West would increase and once again, as in the Cold War times, it will be a strategically important country for the West.
In my opinion, Turkey’s direction has not changed since the end of the Cold War. We are living in a different world; Turkey has to adjust its foreign policy accordingly. Also, during the Cold War, Turkey had no access to the Caucasus and Central Asia because of the Soviet Union. These regions are new for Turkish policy and Turkey has felt compelled to establish close relations due to ethnic, religious, and cultural ties with those countries. I believe that this adjustment in Turkish foreign policy fits Turkey’s role in the West and Turkey has continued its basic foreign policy direction since the establishment of the Republic.
2.) What does Turkey seek to gain by its evolving foreign policy, through its expansion of its role in the region?
I think if we look at Turkey’s geography it can be said that it is a Balkan country, a Caucasus country, and a Middle Eastern country. In respect to that, it is necessary that Turkey establish relations with countries in those regions. If Turkey manages to improve relations with all of these countries in the surrounding areas, this will open new doors for Turkey in terms of trade relations and political influence. Other power centers in the Asia-Pacific region will also be considered in Turkish foreign policy.
Turkey’s direction towards Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East will open a path towards these countries, especially in terms of commercial relations.
3.) Some critics have questioned whether Turkey should remain a part of the Western defense structure, NATO. What would you say to those critics?
First, I believe that the world needs NATO and Turkey and NATO need each other. During the Cold War, Turkey was an important member of NATO in terms of fending off the Soviet threat. In NATO operations, Turkey has played an important role and it should argue against the proposals and critics, especially those made by the EU, that NATO’s role should be reduced in the world. Turkey should be more active in promoting the role of NATO in other regions as well. During the Cold War, due to the bipolar structure, leaders of each pole managed to control the small countries and this prevented local regional conflicts, but in the post-Cold War era, we have seen many regional conflicts and people have suffered because of that. Security structures like NATO can do something to prevent these types of conflicts and I believe in that case, NATO can still play a key part in today’s world. Since Turkey is a Balkan and Caucasus country, and since both regions are quite unstable, Turkey’s role in NATO is still vital, just as we saw during the Kosovo crisis.
4.) Do you have any suggestions as to what Turkey’s next move should be regarding foreign relations with its neighbors?
Turkey has managed to establish concrete relations with its neighbors and I believe that within the next 5 to 10 years, Turkey might look more to the Caucasus and Central Asia due to the importance of energy resources. Turkey’s dependency on Russian natural gas is a threat to its national security and Turkey should look at alternative natural gas and oil resources. The Caucasus and Central Asia are very important in their potential for natural gas and for this reason Turkey should concentrate on its relations with the countries in the Caspian region. Also, when you follow the politics of energy this should go in line with security policies as you cannot differentiate between energy and security. Many of the energy projects depend heavily on security before implementation, therefore, if there is enough security in the region then companies will invest in these projects and pipelines will be constructed. Turkey must play an active role in the security of the Caucasus and Central Asia.
5.) Where do you envision Turkey’s place on the global stage in the next 10 to 15 years?
As a regional power, Turkey has to play an active role in its surrounding regions in order to protect its national interests. Turkey will probably continue its aspiration to be a member of the EU, and its membership in the EU can become a reality if there is an important change in the international system. The new international atmosphere that evolved after the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia might be beneficial for Turkey’s EU membership process. Within the EU, there are a group of countries that are against Turkey’s membership; however, there is another group of countries that support Turkey’s aspiration to be a member of the EU. The second group believes that the EU needs to play an active role in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. In this respect, the EU should implement policies that have a security dimension towards these regions in order to be an effective global power. With this political vision, the EU needs Turkey as a member since Turkey is a regional power in the Caucasus, Black Sea, Middle East and Balkan regions. Turkey’s membership will give the EU global power status and a chance to be effective in the above mentioned regions. Europe’s skeptical relations with Russia, which became more obvious after August 2008, will feed this view. In the mean time, during the negotiation process and with pressure from the EU, Turkey should avoid taking radical steps and/or set backs regarding these issues that are of much importance for its national interests.
I also believe that Turkey’s relations with the US will continue to be important in the next 15 years since the U.S. has interests in Turkey’s surrounding region. It will be a more active player in international organizations as well due to its increasing ambition outside its immediate region. Stability in the Caucasus, Balkans and the Middle East will contribute to Turkey’s role in these regions. Its increasing ties with the Turkic Republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia will also continue to grow in the next 15 years, and these states will most likely increase their cooperation in international organizations. As a result of the development of communications and transportation links, contact among peoples of different regions and continents will increase, which will become an important factor in the foreign policies of countries in the future. Turkish foreign policy will also play a much more important role in territories that are further away.
In general, whether it is with the EU or outside of it, Turkey will continue its close relations with the West and its security structure. I do not think this will change in the decades to come.
*This interview was conducted by Stacy Maruskin, researcher at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK).
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Wednesday, 11 November 2009
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