Monday, 12 October 2009
After the latest signing of the Armenian-Turkish Protocol, Dr. Sedat Laciner, Head of the International Strategic Research Organization, evaluates the latest developments on the issue.
1.) What is your take on the signing of the Armenian-Turkish Protocol, were you anticipating a stall?
During the week, there had been speculation that Armenia felt it was too early to sign the documents, they were having hesitations. They could have been stalling because of the immense pressure they were dealing with from the Armenian Diaspora as well as the opposition they face. Sarkisian just returned from an unsuccessful attempt at convincing the Diaspora to support the protocols. He traveled to France, New York, California, Lebanon and Russia, five strong and active places where the Armenia Diaspora resides. The government has been harshly criticized as selling Armenia to the Turks and the Diaspora is completely against any agreement or normalization and argues that it comes at too high a cost. The Armenian side played a game, if they saw an opportunity to run away from the table, they would have, but Clinton came to Zurich which was a surprise for the Armenians. The Armenian Diaspora is very strong and powerful in the U.S. and they offer extensive support to the Democratic Party. Armenia's foreign minister did not think Clinton and Obama would take a political risk like this and Clinton ended up playing a crucial role in the signing of the protocol. The Russians, French, Swiss were all there, and the whole world was watching. Whoever ran from the table would be blamed for collapsing the peace and normalization process. The Turkish side was very confident that the protocols would be signed by both sides because it would be incredibly difficult to reject such a platform.
2.) What do you think the prospects are for ratification in the Turkish and Armenian parliaments?
Currently, the Prime Minister needs to persuade his own party members in Parliament to ratify it. Turkey also has an election coming up in about a year in a half so it will not be easy for the AKP to ratify such a sensitive agreement without fulfilling Azerbaijan's wishes to not open the border until Armenia's occupation forces in the country have been withdrawn. Azerbaijan is a much more important country in terms of energy, politics, economics and security. We share cultural similarities and we have a strategic relationship with Azerbaijan. The Turkish parliament will have to see significant changes and improvements in Karabakh or else the protocols will not be ratified. As for the Armenian side, they are already under pressure and are facing difficulties with the Karabakh issue and these will only increase without ratifications. The signature alone of the protocols is a historical and wonderful step, but it will only get more difficult. It should be accepted that for the first time in history, the Turks and Armenians are discussing their problems and this is a historical process in itself. Neither the Diaspora nor Azerbaijan can stop this process.
3.) What effects can the Armenian Diaspora have on the ratification process in Armenia?
Armenia is a small country in terms of population, politics, economics, or in terms of anything. There are more Armenians living abroad than in the country itself. These Armenian communities outside are strong and powerful, they have provided finances to the country as well so the Diaspora is very important for the Armenian economy. The political parties, like the Dashnaks for example, have strong connections with the Diaspora and they can influence each other. There is a strong opposition against the protocols and Sarkisian and his men have been called traitors to the motherland by the opposition and the Diaspora. This will have effects on the ratification process.
4.) Why does the Diaspora not want to see relations continue to prosper between Armenia and Turkey?
The Diaspora lives far away, they cannot understand the regional balance of power or the needs of the Armenians living in Armenia. It is a small, weak and poor country; they need friends like any normal country. But Armenians living in California do not need the same neighbors that Armenians living in Armenia need. The course of events in 1915 are important for any Armenian but those living within the country do not need a hostility against the Turkish people to feel themselves as being Armenian. Armenians have been around for thousands of years, they have had a great civilization and culture and they are Armenian because they are Armenian! However, in New York, Paris, Los Angeles, anywhere the Diaspora resides, those Armenians are immigrants, and there immigration was rooted in the 1915 relocation campaign. They left Anatolia, they lost their homes, their possessions and some lost their family members and this is why they accuse the Turks and have created a legacy which they have based their "Armenianness' on, the hostility against the Turks. They live in an imaginary world where they dream of a perfect Armenia and the evil Turks are the enemy of that Armenia. Perhaps they have never been to Armenia or Turkey or even met with a Turk, but they can easily hate any Turk because of this imaginary evil. So if you solve the problems between Armenia and Turkey then you would destroy the identity of the Diaspora. This cause has united Armenians in these Diaspora countries so they are against any sort of normalization. This is why they have given money to Armenia and financed it to maintain the problems between Turkey and Armenia. They are not pragmatic or realistic, they want war at any cost but at a cost which will be paid by the Armenians living in Armenia.
5.) How does Azerbaijan feel about this normalization of relations now that the protocols have actually been signed?
Turkey has always informed Azerbaijan about what is going on, they send diplomats, documents, make calls and provide information, all to ensure the Azeris that there is no need to worry because Turkey won't do anything unless the Nagorno Karabakh issue is resolved. But the Azeris have no confidence in us, they know Turkey is a brother of the country and has always supported and never disappointed them, but there is always a first time for disappointment. They don't have any closer country than Turkey. We are the only true friend in the world to them, there are some other Turkic countries of course, but none like us. They desperately need Turkey and that is why they are afraid they will be betrayed by the Turks. From time to time they have made some criticisms and they remind President Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan of their promises not to open the borders without a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh issue; however, overall they fear Turkey will not continue to uphold its promise and eventually open its borders without any stipulation in regards to Armenia returning Azerbaijan's occupied lands.
This interview was conducted by Stacy Maruskin, a researcher at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK).
