|
Adb: Signs Show East Asia Moving Out Of Economic Slump |
|
|
Thursday, 23 July 2009The Asian Development Bank says East Asian economies are moving towarda recovery after sharp declines triggered by the global economicdownturn. But the bank's economists say a sustained recovery willhappen only after the major industrialized economies begin to growagain.
The Asian Development Bank report released Thursday saysthe economies of East Asia are leaving behind the worst of the economicdownturn that hit the world last year.
Jong-Wha Lee, a senior ADB economistJong-Wha Lee, a seniorADB economist, says growth in the emerging East Asian economies fellbecause they still depend heavily on exports for growth.
"Thefour middle-income ASEAN economies - that includes Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines and Thailand - as a group have contracted one percent inthe first quarter of 2009. Thailand posted the largest decline by 7.1percent," he said.
But, the ADB report says, the pace ofdecline has slowed. The strongest signs of a recovery are in theemerging East Asian financial markets, which have risen almost 70percent since last November.
During the second quarter China'seconomy grew almost 8 percent, while early estimates show Singapore'scontraction has moderated. Industrial production has also picked up inIndonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
"EmergingEast Asia has entered the transition from recession to recovery asexpansionary policies gain traction. In particular, indicators fromChina are very encouraging - hopes are growing that China may leadAsia's recovery. signs of the recovery remain still tentativewhile any pending recovery will likely to be weak and fragile," saidLee.
The ADB also is cautious about hopes that China's growthwill boost other Asian economies, in part because China competes withits neighbors in many export markets. The bank adds that China'sgrowth still heavily depends on spending to improve the infrastructure.
In short, the ADB says, Asia needs a strong economic recovery in the United States, Japan and Europe.
"Soit is China alone or Asia alone cannot be the single engine of growthfor Asia. We need two engines - the other engine - perhaps moreimportant - is the major industrialized countries. So without a fullglobal recovery, Asia will be (find it) very difficult to go back tothe strong sustained growth," said Lee.
The bank forecasts that emerging East Asian economies will expand by about three percent this year, and six percent in 2010.
But,the ADB warns a prolonged recession in the developed countries and therisk of deflation could slow growth. The bank calls on governments torefocus on domestic consumption and away from exports, to create moresustainable growth.
|
Thursday, 23 July 2009
VOA News
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MOST VISITED NEWS (DAILY) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
