Monday, 1 June 2009
* Interview with Sedat LACINER by Yonca Poyraz DOGAN from Today's Zaman
* Sedat Laciner, a senior analyst at the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO / USAK), has said Turkey has never been so close to a solution to the Kurdish issue, but he is cautious because of fears about attempts by the outlawed terror organziation, Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), in cooperation with the deep state, to harm the process.
"If the PKK and the Ergenekon gang do not sabotage the process, we are close to a solution," he said, adding that the police have been rounding up PKK supporters in raids throughout the country.
* President Abdullah Gül recently signaled that steps would be taken to resolve the long-standing Kurdish issue, which he described as Turkey's primary problem. He said elements of the state, civilians and the intelligence community were talking to each other "more openly and frequently."
* In the midst of this talk of peace, a recent loss of six Turkish soldiers in a land mine trap in Hakkari province, along the country's border with Iraq, has been attributed to the PKK.
* For Monday Talk, Laciner interprets the meaning of Gül's remarks in addition to explaining the difficulties of having a "state within state" and how this has blocked the government's initiatives regarding the Kurdish issue.
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Q - What is your evaluation of President Gül's recent statement indicating that the long-standing Kurdish issue is Turkey's primary problem?
SL: "When former President Süleyman Demirel said he recognized the Kurdish reality, the earth was shaken, only because he said he recognized it. At the time, even using the word "Kurdish" posed a problem. Now we have reached a point that the president can say the Kurdish issue is the most important problem of the country, more important than inflation, terrorism, education and health. This is a revolutionary development. In this case, people will ask what is being done to resolve it. And we see that the government is trying to address the issue."
Q - What is being done?
SL: "Indeed, the government had intentions in its first term to address the issue. But it had neither the knowledge nor the experience, let alone courage, to address it properly. We at USAK presented reports to the government on the issue, and some organizations conducted similar studies and presented them to the government as well. However, the most important problem was that even if some of the state's institutions -- such as the intelligence department, some subunits of the intelligence department, the police, the military and ministers and bureaucrats -- were of the same opinion and agreed upon an action plan, they could not implement it."
Q - Why?
SL: "Because there was no consensus in the state, and there was a lack of trust among the elements of the state. The situation was that the government did not trust the state and the state did not trust the government. One initiative was annulled by the other. And we can understand this situation better since military coup plans of the past have recently been revealed. In that kind of an environment, the government did not have enough courage to resolve the Kurdish issue. Every step forward they took meant taking two steps back."
Q - What has changed now that the government seems to be taking up the issue in a more determined manner?
SL: "The investigation into Ergenekon has contributed greatly to intimidating illegal, gang-type organizations in the state. We started to see that no matter what their rank, people are being held accountable for their crimes. In Turkey, we had in the past seen prime ministers and ministers tried in courts but had not seen generals being tried at all. So manipulative forces within the state have been intimidated, and with that, a consensus has started to form in the state, no matter how differently the military and the government view the Kurdish issue. When there are thousands of terrorists and armed people on the mountains, no one should be able to prevent a solution to the problem, regardless of what their views are on the issue. What can prevent attempts to stop terrorists? What's wrong with a Kurdish-language television station? These taboos have been broken."
Q - And you believe the military agrees with the government on this.
SL: "These taboos have been broken following an agreement with the military. TRT 6 (The Turkish Radio and Television Corporation's [TRT] Kurdish station) does what the military cannot do. We have to realize that Roj TV has done what the PKK has not been able to do. It is sad that Turkey is only now, in 2009, able to use this tool -- quite late. Such a television station should have been established in 1994. The president saw this development, the agreement between the military and the government, and became elated, so he commented on the matter.
"State within state should be eliminated'
Q - What are the plans on how to handle the Kurdish issue?
SL: "The government and military see that there should be measures to prevent people from going to the mountains and joining the PKK and that there should be measures to provide opportunities to bring terrorists down from the mountains. There should be steps in the social and economic arenas to develop eastern and southeastern Turkey.
Q - Are there other reasons why the president is so optimistic about a resolution to the Kurdish issue?
SL: "Yes. We see that the PKK does not give any hope to people who realize that they cannot get anywhere by following the PKK's ideas. They see that when there are deaths in the fight against the PKK, martyred soldiers are mostly Kurds themselves. International businesses withdraw from the region because of the terrorism problem. So again the victims are the Kurds of the region because there is no economic development and they die because of the conflict."
Q - After the president expressed his optimism about the Kurdish issue, he faced a court case. Is this a coincidence?
SL: "Here we see the strong position of the judiciary."
Q - Stronger than the military's?
SL: "Yes. First of all, force commanders change every few years. Secondly, military men are bred from average citizens who are transformed into members of the armed forces during their military education. In Turkey, members of the judiciary come from a certain class. This elite class emerged with the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, like the Republican People's Party (CHP). This class has produced members of the academia as well. So the universities, the judiciary and civilian bureaucracy are indeed stronger than the military, and these institutions are more influential."
Q - The president is now facing a trial. Do you think the government feels weaker in resolving the Kurdish issue?
SL: "This will be the case until the state within the state is eliminated. This struggle will continue until there is a drastic change."
Q - Can you elaborate on this idea of "drastic change"?
SL: "Either this government will be replaced by one friendlier to the elements of the deep state, or the government will emerge a winner. In other words, either the state or the government will win this struggle. We are witnessing a process of wearing down the government. In the near past, we have had a case against the ruling party; today, we have a case against the president. The shadow state -- or deep state -- will continue to use the media and the judiciary. And we should not underestimate the role of the media."
Q - How so?
SL: "The Turkish media, especially the mainstream, have traditionally applauded the military interventions in Turkey. They even prepared grounds for military coups. We see that the media has again been active in supporting the military. In other words, they blame the military, the generals, for being passive and for not being able to intervene more directly in government affairs. In fully democratic societies, we would see the opposite: the media would support freedom."
* "PKK Playing a Game'
Q - We recently read about PKK leader Murat Karayilan's statements regarding a peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue, but in the weeks that followed, there was a deadly attack in Hakkari. Is Karayılan the leader of the PKK or not?
SL: "Karayilan is not sincere in his message. While he was issuing this message, there was another deadly attack in Lice. He said he did not know about the attack and that he was sorry. This is not acceptable. If he does not know about such attacks, then he is not the leader of the PKK. If he is the leader, then he is a liar. The recent attacks are the PKK's response to the peace process. The state has shown that it is the Democratic Society Party (DTP) that it can talk to in the process and that there is no place at the table for the PKK. As a result, the PKK has gotten angry and ill tempered and commits more crimes. The PKK aims to draw the public to a more nationalist and hard-line stance and to force the government to step back. This is the PKK's usual tactic when there are hopes for peace because this is how it can survive: not by resolving the conflict but by continuing to fight. In that sense, the PKK is not similar to the ETA (a Basque separatist terrorist organization) and the Irish Republican Army (IRA), both of which have been able to keep their promises. On the contrary, the PKK prefers to play a game with Turkey. It is likely to increase its attacks in the coming days because it realizes that it is about to be finished. And let's not forget that some deep state elements in Turkey are in collaboration with the PKK to frustrate the government and eventually support a new pro-deep state government."
Q - Leaders of the pro-Kurdish DTP have condemned the attacks and adopted a pro-solution stance. Do you think there is a power struggle between the PKK and the DTP?
SL: "The DTP is not comfortable being under the domination of the PKK. However, the PKK has its men in local DTP governments and punishes the people who do not conform to PKK demands. There is the Kurdistan Democratic Confederation (KCK) the PKK has formed and through which it controls everyone, be they in nongovernmental organizations or in the PKK. The security forces have been conducting operations against the KCK in recent weeks so those elements can be captured because the government wants to talk with DTP members who can say no to the PKK."
Q - How do you interpret CHP leader Deniz Baykal's recent pro-solution approach?
SL: "Baykal is late, but he has caught the ropes at a good time. He has spoken of an amnesty if the PKK agrees to a cease-fire. This is good. If the PKK and the Ergenekon gang do not sabotage the process, we are close to a solution. In fact, we have never been so close to a solution to the Kurdish issue before. TRT's Kurdish broadcasts continue 24 hours a day, the opposition is asking for private television channels to go on air in Kurdish -- and this is likely to happen soon -- town names will be reverted to their original Kurdish names, economic support to the region continues and so on. Baykal's recent stance is helpful, too."
Q - And what would you say about the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)?
SL: "Naturally, they are more nationalistic, but they have been acting responsibly. For example, they did not try to prevent Kurdish broadcasts. The party does not act in support of hard-line Turkishness and therefore does not sabotage the process."
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Sedat Laciner, expert on international security and Turkish foreign policy
Laçiner is the director of the International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO / USAK), an Ankara-based think tank.
Having received degrees from Ankara University, the University of Sheffield and King's College London, he has taught Turkish foreign policy, international relations and international security courses at Bilkent University in Ankara, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Baskent University and the National Police Academy Security Studies Institute in Ankara since 2001.
Together with Ihsan Bal, he authored "Ethnic Terrorism in Turkey and the Case of the PKK: Roots, Structure, Survival, and Ideology" in 2004. He also authored "Irak Kuresel Meydan Savasi ve Türkiye" (The Iraq War and Turkey) and co-authored "Türkiyeli Avrupali, Türkiye'nin Uyeliginin AB'ye Olasi Etkileri" (Europe with Turkey, the Possible Impacts of Turkey's EU Membership) in 2004.
01 June 2009, Monday
