Saturday, 2 May 2009At present, in Russia-Ukraine relations the economic issues are of the greatest importance, at least, to Ukraine. The economic crisis has reduced the demand for goods including natural gas, which offers a problem to Ukraine since there is a contracted volume of the Russian gas that should be paid for. It appears the Ukrainian government should address the issue of the contracted gas volume during the negotiations with the Kremlin. This is one of the goals of Ukrainian Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko's visit to Russia.
It is also important for Ukraine to specify and understand Russia's position on energy policy - how it sees the mutual satisfaction of interests of the energy consumers and producers. I believe that, in the long run, the agreements will be based on average parameters. The plan of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Ukraine's proposals will be corrected and, as a result, a document similar to the European plan will appear.
As to the Russian factor during the election campaign in Ukraine, firstly, the campaign may not take place at all. Secondly, nobody denies the Russian factor but, at the same time, one should understand that today it is less important than it was several years ago. More than that, Russia's being able to determine the configuration of the political forces is a myth that the Russian and Ukrainian interest groups maintain.
The reason why the Russian factor became less important is the economic crisis and the fact that the sides have become more developed, so the methods of direct interference do not work any longer. Because of the crisis the economic issues, which caused the political conflicts, are becoming political.
For Ukraine this is, first and foremost, the gas issue. There are many difficulties in this sphere.
The second point is Moscow should solve the issue of the Black Sea Fleet deployment in the Crimea till 2017. It is expensive for the Russian government to maintain the Fleet in Ukraine, so the economic crisis can get Russia into financial difficulties.
As regards Ukraine's expectations of receiving from Moscow a credit of $5 billion, it seems to me that Russia, which experiences economic and political difficulties, also needs the money.
IGOR BURAKOVSKY,
Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Economic Studies and Political Consulting, Kyiv |
Saturday, 2 May 2009
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