Saturday, 2 May 2009
The Russian factor is not a determinative or key factor for the election campaign in Ukraine any more. Viktor Yushchenko's opponents used to take advantage of such subjects as the Russian language and the prospects of Ukraine's membership in NATO to get more popular. Now the voters are not interested in those issues.
This does not mean that the Russian factor is not of importance. Today the issues of Russia-Ukraine economic cooperation and of overcoming the global economic crisis are of more significance to the Ukrainian electors.
That's why Yuliya Tymoshenko's visit to Moscow on April 29 may raise her rating, especially among the electors from Ukraine's east and southeast regions who sympathize with Russia and its political leaders, in particular Russian Premier Vladimir Putin.
Yuliya Tymoshenko is going to discuss the economic issues with Russian Premier. If she manages to come to terms with the Kremlin about the possibility to find a joint way out of the crisis and about the gas price or if she persuades Russia to reduce the gas price, which would be felt on the threshold of the heating season (in the autumn the presidential election campaign will be in full swing), all the Ukrainian (not only the so-called eastern voters) will see the positive effect.
So, Yuliya Tymoshenko may get a serious trump card. I would advise her to build such an election strategy according to which the relations with Russia should be economized rather than politicized.
As regards the fall of Ms Tymoshenko's rating, this is a temporary phenomenon. The main political struggle has not started yet and the key heavyweights have not launched their presidential campaigns. There appeared Arseniy Yatsenuk whose rating is growing. Before his appearance all the policy-makers are said to have been bad and he is said to be good since there is a need for new political leaders. A little more than 50% of the population wanted new persons a month ago, but now this figure is less than 40%. In the 2007 elections Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc took twice as many votes as the public opinion polls showed.
I believe that Ms Tymoshenko's participation in the March Brussels negotiations, when the EU-Ukraine declaration on modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system was signed, cannot adversely affect her negotiations with the Russian Premier. Probably this declaration is just a statement about intentions, it was not directed against Russia. I think that Russia will not be excluded from the process of the modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
The Russian authorities emotionally reacted to the EU-Ukraine declaration. The reason is that it was directed against interests of those people in Russia and Ukraine who benefited from the gas transportation system, not against Russia. Now that the emotions went down the negotiations can become constructive. I believe Russia will be involved in the modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
VITALY BALA,
Director of the Situations Modeling Agency, Kyiv
