Azerbaijan, Baku, April 8 /Trend News, E.Tariverdiyeva/
Opposition's mass demonstrations will have a negative influence on democratic and economic processes in the country, experts said.
"The opposition is playing with fire and may get more than they bargained for. An attempt to force Saakashvili out of office is a dangerous strategy that could derail the entire democratic project in Georgia," independent British expert on South Caucasus, Director of The Transatlantic and Caucasus Studies Institute, London Ziba Norman said.
Georgian opposition is preparing to hold demonstrations on April 9 and a large scale rally will be held demanding President Saakashvili's resignation.
President Saakashvili calls the opposition to dialogue for compromise. "Different opinions between the authorities and opposition have repeatedly caused catastrophe in the country. The fact is that 20 percent of territories have been occupied and we have to liberate our territories," the RIA Novosti quoted Saakashvili as saying.
The opposition's stated demand is the resignation of President Saakashvili, viewed as being largely responsible for the disastrous outcome of the August 2008 confrontation with Russia which led to the dismemberment of Georgia.
At the night of 8 August, large-scale military operations were launched in the self-declared South Ossetia republic. The Georgian troops entered Tskhinvali. Later the Russian troops entered the city and drove the Georgian forces back to the Georgian territory. In late August Russia the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Tbilisi cuts diplomatic relations with Moscow and announced the two unrecognized republics occupied territories.
Experts believe that opposition's steps will harm Georgia's democratic and economic state.
"Talk of protests already has the ratings agency Fitch considering a downgrade of Georgia, which would make it even harder for Georgia to attract investment," Norman wrote Trend News via e-mail.
The Fitch Ratings is an international rating agency, which is aimed at providing timely and accurate assessments of the creditworthiness of issuers, the implementation of high quality credit analysis and providing first-class analytical services to issuers, investors and bankers.
Whatever benefits the opposition hopes to achieve must be weighed against the possible harm it may cause. Could the protests be hijacked by forces that do not really care about Georgia's long term stability and integrity?, Norman said.
Given Georgia's geographical location it must look for nuanced solutions. "If its attempts at democracy appear to result in a string of elected presidents being thrust out of office by mass protests, then the viability of the nation itself may come into question," Norman said.
It is naïve to suggest that an immediate resignation of the President, followed by another round of elections, will solve Georgia's problems.
Experts believe that opposition leaders must seek more diplomatic approach to improve the situation in the country and be ready to a dialogue with the authorities.
An independent Georgian political analyst Mamuka Areshidze believes that the public can play a significant role in confronting between the government and the opposition, which "must be less than the entire opposition and wants to live in a normal state." "We will see further how much the government and opposition is ready for this," Areshidze said.
It is early to say anything about the demonstrations.
The political situation in Georgia depends not so much on the opposition, but on President Mikheil Saakashvili's steps, Georgian ex-President Eduard Shevarnadze said.
"It is difficult to say whether the opposition achieves president's resignation, most depends on president's further steps," Shevarnadze told Trend News.
According to Areshadze, it is difficult to forecast opposition's demonstrations, as there are radical forces which are ready to go to a dialogue with the authorities and achieve concrete results, but they cannot say it loud.
"There are liberal political forces, which are also ready to hold a dialogue with the authorities, but they will not go till the end," Areshadze said.
"We do not know what compromise the authorities will make during the dialogue. This makes the situation unpredictable," Areshadze said.
E.Ostapenko contributed in the article.
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