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G20 Summit To Tackle Global Financial Crisis, But Consensus On Solution Uncertain

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Tuesday, 31 March 2009

The G20 summit inLondon April 1st and 2nd aims to reach aconsensus on how to solve the global economic crisis. However, there are manychallenges that must be met first.

Professor JohnKirton, director of the G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto, saysworld leaders face "a very big job across a very broad agenda."

"The first thingthey have to do is to make sure that the fiscal and monetary stimulus that theG20 countries are injecting into their economies to get growth back, to providejobs for their citizens, is enough. That it's working well. That it's targetedin the areas that will really help the most. Secondly, they've got to make surethat the financial system is working by unblocking the credit channels," hesays.

That meanscomprehensive and up-to-date supervision and regulation of the financialindustry. Kirton also warns against a knee-jerk reaction to the globalrecession.

He says, "They haveto make sure that we don't see an outburst of vicious trade protectionism,which everyone knows punishes all concerned. But is such a temptation forpoliticians to engage in to appear to be doing something for their voters backhome."

Other challengesinclude meeting the Millennium Development Goals and modernizing major financialinstitutions.

"We need to reformthe global financial architecture, particularly the World Bank, InternationalMonetary Fund, international institutions that were designed in and for a worldof 1944, but really need to be changed for the 21st Century globaleconomy we now have," he says.

However, althoughthe problems are shared by all at the G20 summit, getting them all to agreestill won't be easy.

"When you have upto 28 leaders from very diverse parts of the world, levels of development,culture, it's very difficult to get consensus - far more difficult than it isto get in the old G8 club," he says.

Kirton also saysthat the current financial crisis is "characterized by a degree of complexity anduncertainty that's never been seen before."

"So in some sense,they're all in this together searching in the dark for a common answer. And Ithink that is a unifying bond that will pull them together," he says.

At last November'ssummit in Washington, the G20 did set the groundwork for modernizing thefinancial structure. This includes assessing financial risks not just atindividual institutions, but across the whole financial sector. Kirton alsosays financial institutions must end a typical cycle of economic behavior.

"So, for example,when times are good and banks are making a lot of money, they should set asidemore capital for a rainy day (bad times). At present of course, when times aregood, they think they don't need that safety net so they put aside less. Thenwhen times are bad, of course, they realize they need it so they start hoardtheir cash – exactly the wrong thing to do," he says.

Into this crisis stepsthe new US President, Barack Obama, who, Kirton says, carries with him great hopesand expectations. But he'll face European leaders, who may disagree with hiseconomic stimulus plans. The unknown factor at the G20 summit is China, whichhas plenty of money at its disposal.

"It's difficult toimagine that even if the United States and the Europeans come to a strongconsensus that they can actually solve the global problem unless China sharesin that leadership," he says.

The director of theG20 Research Group expects the summit to address the needs of developingcountries for at least two reasons. One is the long-standing commitment ofBritish Prime Minister Gordon Brown to helping poor countries. And the other, Kirtonsays, is the understanding Barack Obama has, from personal experience, of howthe crisis could affect such countries as Indonesia and Kenya. The unansweredquestion is: Will parliaments and congress back home follow through and releasethe money needed to help poor countries?

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Tuesday, 31 March 2009

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