Thursday, 15 January 2009The result of the Russia-Ukraine gas conflict, which broke out by tradition on New Year's Eve, is quite predictable - the Russian gas will be supplied to the European consumers but Gazprom's reputation has been seriously tarnished. In one of the most severe winters Europe does not receive gas, and though Russia tries to shift the blame onto Ukraine (its state collapse is evident), Moscow is also responsible for the conflict. From now on the EU does not trust Russia (and Ukraine) any more and will do its utmost to depend on the Russian gas as little as possible.
It is quite possible that the EU would act as an arbiter between Russia and Ukraine if they obeyed the understandable and public rules of the game. But all the gas agreements are based on dubious schemes and secret agreements with the unknown mediators' participating in the game. It was Russia that insisted that the gas payments be implemented through a mysterious mediator "RosUkrEnergo". Gazprom stopped receiving the money from the Ukrainian Naftogaz, which led to the mass non-payments and to the mess involving millions of people who have to watch the disgusting performance "cutting off the gas in the thievish neighboring country" every year.
Let's recollect another story. At one time Gazprom and NTV television channel began to conflict with each other, and as a result, Russia's best TV channel virtually ceased to exist (now the different television company, which is sponsored by Gazprom, has this acronym). At that time President of Russia Vladimir Putin denied that the conflict had political roots and said that this was "an argument between two economic players" that should be settled only by the court. But isn't the Russia-Ukraine gas conflict an argument between two economic players? Then why hasn't Moscow taken the matter to court for a long time? Maybe, because that court would not take the decision suitable for Russia?
At the very end of the conflict Russia said that it would file an action against Naftogaz to Stockholm Court of Arbitration. But everybody knows perfectly well that it will never happen since an objective trial can reveal the most concealed details of the Moscow-Kyiv gas agreements. But who wants that? I believe that this is the reason why during the whole conflict the sides have not brought actions against each other, but there were many mutual accusations.
Incidentally, according to the Gazprom contracts, the gas must be supplied directly to the consumers. In one word, the company's task is to supply gas and in this case putting the blame on Kyiv is unconvincing. Moscow, not European customers, came to terms with Ukraine about gas transit. All the problems could be solved simply: we supply the gas to the Ukrainian border and then you, dear customers, should solve your problems with that unpredictable state.
Russia flatly rejected this scheme of the gas exports because then it would act as a gas supplier, not a political player, and all the political benefits would be derived by Kyiv becoming the major gas pipeline player. Who is interested in that?
All the parties to the conflict (Russia, Ukraine and the European countries) feel cheated. All of them speak about cubic meters, market prices and contracts signed. And only the people, who live where this gas is extracted, do not take part in this tragedy and do not feel cheated. However, probably, they are decieved most of all.
I recently received a letter from my friend working in Russia's Nenets Autonomous Area where this gas is extracted and the gas price does not affect the living standards in the region. He wrote that "this area, which is four times as large as Switzerland, has only two priests and all of them are in the Nenets capital Naryan-Mar. Here hydrocarbons rather than people are the main value. There are many explored deposits and hydrocarbon-bearing regions. Moscow connects this area's future only with oil and gas production, everything else is of no importance. In the main old people live in tundra villages. And now there are few of them - the villages and the old people".
It is a pity that the gas wars are waged not for these poor people.
Akram Murtazaev is a laureate of the Russian Journalist Award "Zolotoye Pero" ("The Golden Pen")
AKRAM MURTAZAEV, MOSCOW |
Thursday, 15 January 2009
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