Thursday, 8 January 2009
Financial crisis, without a doubt, influenced the events in Central Asia, increasing risks in some fields, having speeding up negative processes in others. Central Asian region is a boiling up copper.
Hundreds of nationalities, different beliefs, factor of Fergana valley, geographical proximity with Afghanistan - and it is yet not the whole list of unsolved problems, which present a big threat for the entire region.
And though depth and paces of the impact of the world financial crisis in each country of Central Asia differ significantly, some issues are of equally danger.
One of the basic problem of Central Asia is constant for some years drain of labor resources abroad. Firstly it refers to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. More so, for the first two republics transactions of migrants make up a significant part of GDP: according to the data of some experts, in Tajikistan the volume of transactions reaches 54% of country's economy, in Kyrgyzstan - about 40%. Authorities of Uzbekistan do not provide with objective data on Uzbek migration, according to official statistics, transactions of migrants make up 8% of the republic's GDP. Flow-out of the educated, capable of working population partially relieve inner social tension, simultaneously it engenders a number of serious problems, which influence seriously even now: human resources hunger, devastation of rural area, growth of gender disproportion, change of mature structure of population, bringing-up children at a distance from their fathers, economic consequences.
The poorest in the region are considered to be Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: on the latest data, beyond the poverty line in each country there is about 50% of the population. This situation - is a threatening factor of risk, as it has destabilizing influence on the situation in the country, it leads to strengthening of protesting and migration moods. The situation in educational sphere leaves much to be desired - flow-out of qualified human resources in 90-s, as well as high degree of corruption in educational institutions negatively influence the quality of educaton. Countries of the regions have already came across the deficit of qualified labour force. Fulfillment of difficult works by unqualified employees, who purchased their diplomas (for instance, construction), directly increases risks of man-caused catastrophes.
One more problematic issue is Islamization of the region. Corruption, poverty, unfairness of courts and social non-protection - these are basic reasons, on which radical Islamic issues are disseminated in the region. 'Islamization, as well as further on politicizing of the believers - is absolutely natural irreversible process,' considers PhD professor of political science of Madrid university, expert of Institute of strategic analysis and prognosis Kadyr Malikov. According to him, danger for national interests of Central Asia states is not Islamization as it is, but radicalization of Islam.
This point of view is shared by deputy director of the Kazakhstani institute of strategic researchers Sanat Kushkumbayev. According to him, the situation is complicated by the fact tat there is no in Islam a division between religion and state, consequently a difficult question appears: where is a line between secular values and religion norms? According to Sanat Kushkumbayev, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are the quietest in the sense of threats on behalf of radical religious organizations. In Kazakhstan compared to the other states of the region there is comparatively not bad standards of life, and in Turkmenistan - initially there were not rooted Islamic roots. The situation seems to be more complicated in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The southern parts of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, including Fergana valley, are the most explosive. Potentially restless situation is in Tajikistan, but the population there partially keeps memory of the civil war in the beginning of 90-s.
