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An Arms Race Bolstered by Ideology |
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Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Mostafa Zein
At the end of their discussions in Tehran in 2007, on the sidelines of the Caspian Sea Conference, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad issued a statement affirming that they would move forward with their bilateral strategic cooperation and "respond to all threats." When asked if he would keep his promise to help Iran develop its nuclear program, Putin said he had promised his mother many things when he was young, carrying out some promises and not others.
Since then, Russian-Iranian relations have faced many difficulties but there has been no scaling-back in ties, even though things have been frozen at times, especially since Russia has been in ongoing talks with Europe and the US about Iran's nuclear program. However, the Bush administration has been insistent on putting a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, while the Kremlin remained unconvinced that Russia was not being targeted. The Bush administration also ignored the Russian response to blocking an ABM treaty; these factors helped boost relations between Tehran and Moscow, which decided to give Iran the S300 long-range anti-aircraft missile system, which can defend against US or Israeli air strikes. This suggests that Russia has become confident that these strikes are merely a threat that will not be carried out; it is determined to live up to Putin's pledge to defend Iran in the Security Council, against any US or European draft resolution to impose sanctions on Tehran.
In other words, Russia is confident about the stability of the Iranian situation in confronting American threats, or else it would not have boosted ties with Iran so quickly. Any US or Israeli strike, especially if it turns into a war or destabilizes the domestic situation, will see Moscow come out as the biggest loser. Cementing this belief are the end of Bush's term, the decision to withdraw from Iraq, NATO's quagmire in Afghanistan and the fear of a US-Iranian deal under Barack Obama.
How will the Russian-Iranian ties be reflected on the Middle East? The likeliest scenario is that it will aid the arms race in the region: Russian arms for Iran, against US arms for the Arabs. Ironically, neither side will use these weapons to confront the other. Boosting the likelihood of this scenario is the lack of an Arab political plan to deal with this development, not to speak of the religious-ideological tension, if not hostility, between Sunnis and Shiites, and the American need for heavily armed allies surrounding Iraq. Most dangerously, it is Iran, not Israel, that is turning into the Arabs' chief enemy.
The arms race between the West and the Soviet Union in the 20th century was boosted by political ideology. The arms race in the Middle East today is being boosted by religious ideology.
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Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Al-Hayat
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