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No More Superpower Playoffs |
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Tuesday, 23 December 2008For centuries, Ukraine's Cossacks were able to play off the superpowers of their time: The Turks against the Russians, or the Poles against both. Some would argue that the survival of the Ukrainian nation depended on a 'flexible' foreign policy. Unfortunately, the result of this policy was a culture of persistent internal division that eventually led to Russian domination. No sooner had Ukraine regained its independence in 1991 than it began to play Russia off again, this time against the United States and Europe. Instead of offering their country's soldiers as mercenaries, Ukrainian leaders now advertise its value as an energy corridor, a market of 46 million people or a strategic location for a military base. But these same leaders are no more united around a national strategy than they were 300 years ago, and today's superpowers might very well end up sorting out their affairs without consideration of Ukrainian interests. Essentially, there are two possible outcomes of post-Soviet relations between Russia and the West, and neither bodes particularly well for an independent Ukraine.
Possible outcome No. 1 entails a rapprochement of the world's military superpowers - the United States and Russia.
Ever since oil prices started going through the roof, and Mr. Putin took control of the country, Russia has attempted to regain its international status, especially vis-à-vis America. First, the Kremlin put down any internal dissent, and then it started putting pressure on the so-called near abroad, or its former satellite states. In doing so, it ran head on into a Bush administration enjoying the geopolitical windfalls from the wave of democratic, or colored, revolutions that erupted along Russia's underbelly following 9-11. Now, America is more concerned with plugging its gaping financial crisis at home, further aggravated by the cost of conducting two wars against an all but invisible enemy. If it weren't for the fact that the global financial crisis affecting America has been equally detrimental to Russia, including the lowering of world oil prices, the Kremlin staff would be dancing on Red Square. But, alas, both Washington and Moscow have seen better times.
And as leaders from both countries tally the losses, along with the rest of the world, it probably wouldn't be too much of a flight of fancy to imagine them looking disdainfully at a map of Ukraine. To the United States, the democratic hopes engendered by the Orange Revolution have been squandered by Orange Ukrainian leaders. To be sure, the new Obama administration cannot just concede Ukraine as part of Russia's much trumpeted 'sphere of influence', but it wouldn't be out of place to now ask: who wants Ukraine now anyway? With the pro-American President Yushchenko exploring new depths of unpopularity at home and abroad, and his leading opponents firmly in the pro-Russian camp or intently pointed in that direction, whom would Obama support in Kyiv anyway?
For a time, it seemed like Washington was building an energy corridor of newly independent states from the Caucasus to the Baltics, but almost every link in the chain is weak; U.S. support for an independent Georgia has turned into support for the floundering Saakashvili administration; Ukraine has allowed the corrupt interests of its oligarchs to undermine its own energy security, not to mention that of Europe; while Poland and the Baltics are better suited to criticizing Russia's role in supplying energy to Europe than offering an alternative to it. For a variety of reasons, including putting Americans to work, Obama might begin concentrating US efforts on developing alternative sources of fuel rather than securing hydrocarbons so far from home.
Regarding Ukraine's potential as a strategic military power, the people at NATO are already in retreat. Last week, it was announced outright that Kyiv would not be offered an Action Plan (seen as the last step on the way to eventual membership) this year. The news is actually a follow-up on European leaders' cold reception to the idea during the Bucharest summit last spring. As George Bush wraps up his last days in office, his European policy initiatives are being packed up as well. No one should be surprised if Mr. Obama derails Bush's plan to install a missile defense system in Eastern Europe.
Of course, neither the United States nor Europe wants to give Moscow a green light to bully former Soviet republics. But there seems to be a growing realization that Russia should be brought on board to battle greater threats to the West. On December 8, NATO special representative Roberts Simmons announced in Moscow that the shipment of military cargo through Russia to NATO troops in Afghanistan is a 'priority', particularly as supply routes from Pakistan become more precarious.
Stepping back from last summer's Georgian war, the U.S. and Russia have more reasons to be friends than allies. Cooperation in the so-called war on terror, containment of China and a nuclear Iran, development of Russia's energy fields and a continuation of partnership in space are issues immediately understandable across the spectrum of U.S. policy makers and the American public - much more understandable than supporting democracy in a corruption ridden and schizophrenic Ukraine.
Possible outcome No. 2 entails a closer relationship between the EU and Russia, to the exclusion (to one degree or another) of the United States.
The popularity of President-Elect Obama in Europe is likely more due to the departure of Mr. Bush than to any hope for a real improvement in trans-Atlantic relations. Europeans blame their cousins across the ocean for everything from the current financial crisis to global warning. Ever since the end of World War Two, there has been a European resentment of American military and financial power. The war in Iraq marked a low point in American leadership.
The deterioration of EU-American relations also coincided with increasing European confidence (especially the strength of the euro), as well as assertive engagement by Russia (which supplies the EU with around a quarter of its gas). All this doesn't mean that the Europeans will want to replace an overbearing U.S. with a capitalist Soviet Union. But it does mean that America isn't the only big brother in town.
Russia offers Europe badly needed hydrocarbons as well as a market for EU goods. Not everyone is satisfied with the Kremlin's democratic credentials, but lead countries (and major gas customers) like Germany and Italy aren't complaining. After all, it's America that started the global financial crisis and war in Iraq, the Kremlin has been quick to point out. Russia has even tried to present itself as a regional militiaman, taking the initiative in the fight against Somalian pirates. When the price of oil starts rising again, Moscow may even prove to be better capable of financing an enhanced role in Europe.
Even a partial reduction in American influence in Europe bodes badly for Ukraine's Western integration efforts. Despite its obligatory lip service to democratic ideals, Brussels is more interested in its energy security. Ukraine is still the major transit route for Russian fuels, but alternative pipelines are already under construction. And unlike America, the Europeans don't want to be in Afghanistan, much less set up a launching platform into southern Asia from the former Soviet Union. Already, Ukraine's internal politics is adjusting to the new political reality, with President Yushchenko's former Orange ally, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, chumming up to Moscow, in competition with the Kremlin's traditional Ukrainian ally, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
U.S. influence in Eastern Europe or anywhere else is not going to go away over night, despite the country's difficult economic times. But Ukraine's ability to flirt with America while remaining in the Russian fold is already being curtailed, quite possibly along with the country's prospects for remaining independent.
John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine
December 10, 2008
EurasianHome |
Tuesday, 23 December 2008
Eurasianhome.org
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