Tuesday, 10 June 2008
The main result to be drawn from the informal CIS summit is that under the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev Russia's policy in the post-Soviet space will not change drastically.
Secondly, the Russian President demonstrated how he was going to talk with the leaders of the post-Soviet states. In spite of his friendly smile, he champions the national interests in a tough way.
So, if somebody believed that Medvedev's smile would mean his losing ground, he must have been disappointed. At least, two summit participants ΤΗτ Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili and Ukrainian leader Viktor Yushchenko ΤΗτ most certainly pinned their hopes on that.
I predicted that Medvedev would implement his predecessor's policy. Under Vladimir Putin he was the Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office that, as we know, in many respects defined the foreign policy, and headed Gazprom Board of Directors.
As for the negotiations with Ukraine, several issues concerning the Russian-Ukrainian relations (for example NATO, Sevastopol and others) are usually discussed separately. But these issues should be considered together. President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko's efforts backfired on him. Because of his attacks on Russia and his anti-Russian policy, Ukraine can no longer expect that the gas price will continue to be increased gradually. For a long time Russia pursued this course despite Ukraine's unwillingness to coordinate its actions with Russia's interests. From now on the gas price for Ukraine will be established at the European level. I think that Russia will carry out the same policy on the other issues ΤΗτ the Crimea, Sevastopol, etc.
If we are talking about Georgia, President Mikheil Saakashvili has to get used to Medvedev's mild and, at the same time, tough behavior. Few people paid attention to the Russian President's words that our European friends were worried that Russia and Georgia would resolve their issues on their own. As a matter of fact, the President made it clear that the Georgian authorities should not hope that a foreign country would support them and would help them to settle the Georgian-Abkhazian problem.
Thus, Russia's policy is mild in terms of its form, but tough in terms of its content. This seems to be a new style of the Russian foreign policy towards the CIS countries, as well as others.
June 9, 2008
VLADIMIR ZHARIKHIN,
Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries, Moscow
