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Uzbek President's Visit to Astana Exposed Existence of a Serious Obstacle on the Road to a Central Asian Alliance |
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Tuesday, 6 May 2008
Uzbekistan has always been skeptical of Nursultan Nazarbayev's integration initiatives. Neither does the president of Uzbekistan conceal his suspicions with regard to the true intents of the Kazakh leaders, believing them to be after regional leadership. In 2002, Tashkent all but torpedoed the first summit of the Asian Conference for Cooperation and Measures of Trust, Kazakhstan's most successful international project so far. Islam Karimov himself pointedly refused to attend the summit, and the envoy sent in his place lacked the authority to sign the final document agreed on in advance, the so called Alma-Ata Act. On the other hand, Karimov abstained from going public then and therefore enabled official Astana to pretend that everything was fine and dandy and proclaim the first document of the Asian Conference unanimously adopted.
Making preparations to receive the Uzbek president this time, Astana never expected direct support of the Central Asian Alliance idea from him. What it counted on was diplomatic lexicon traditionally used on official visits. Karimov disappointed his Kazakh hosts by being unexpectedly straightforward. "As far as Uzbekistan is concerned, this initiative is unacceptable. I'm saying it right here and now to prevent any further speculations on the matter," he said. "Establishment of alliances such as this requires evenness of the levels of economic and social development. Unfortunately, we have too many matters to address yet... all and any alliances are therefore untimely." "We've been through it already," Karimov added to remind the audience that alliances like that had already been established more than once.
Nazarbayev's statements on the necessity of a Central Asian economic alliance might be taken for a call to revive what Kazakhstan and its neighbors had discarded only recently but... Expansion of Kazakh capitals and businesses into the countries of the region requires apropos political rhetorics, and economic alliances are so far the best invention. Besides, the minimum basis for unification does exist already, whether Tashkent is prepared to acknowledge it or not. The European Union as we know it evolved from the European Coal and Steel Community, a quaint organization West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, and Italy had established in the early 1950s. Why wouldn't Central Asian countries unite around water and energy resources too? official Astana wonders.
"We are firmly convinced that a gradual, step-by-step progress towards this objective is needed, particularly since the existing agreements allow for it," Nazarbayev said at one of his recent press conference. "Aware of it, we agreed to arrange a special international forum in 2009 to discuss the matter of a regional economic union." [Karimov's visit showed it to be wishful thinking - Ekspert.]
Kazakhstan will probably organize a Central Asia + Europe conference now. The European Union did chart, discuss, and adopt a new Central Asian strategy for 2007-2012, last year. In this particular case, the term "strategy" denotes a program of financial aid to the countries of the region in the spheres of education, environmental protection, energy production, and so on. The United States is out to establish cooperation with the five countries of the region too, so that its participation in the forum may probably be counted on.
Kurmanbek Bakiyev, president of the impoverished Kyrgyzstan wracked by internal discord, is the only Central Asian leader who supports the Central Asian alliance idea. No wonder he is an ardent supporter. Kazakhstan is already in control of over 70% of the banking capitals in Kyrgyzstan. It may become the nearest donor and supplier of relief aid tomorrow, unless deterioration of the Kyrgyz economy is stopped. That is why Bakiyev went out of his way to play ball on his visit to Astana a fortnight ago. "I'd say that some neighbors are overly cautious or else fail to understand [the advantages - Ekspert]," he said. "Of course, there may exist some domestic problems that prevent their integration into the process of establishment of the alliance."
Kazakhstan's infatuation with the idea of a regional alliance should be considered from the standpoint of foreign politics. The European Union has been getting nothing save for speculations concerning variety of Central Asian gas export routes, but the United States in Afghanistan might find even purely symbolic support handy. Particularly when these symbolic gestures are backed by something like token relief aid and transit agreements. It stands to reason to assume that the would-be Central Asian alliance is only needed to make political statements on behalf of the whole region. Are Central Asian countries ready to accept it on these terms? Official Tashkent for example is at odds with the West and first and foremost with the United States for criticism in connection with the human rights situation. Uzbekistan will certainly keep clear of the Central Asian chorus Astana is trying to put together. It follows that the coveted regional leadership Kazakhstan is impatient for comes down to leadership over Kyrgyzstan alone for the time being.
05.05.2008
Ferghana.Ru |
Tuesday, 6 May 2008
Central Asia
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