Thursday, 17 February 2005By Will Dunham
WASHINGTON - U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to provide reliable estimates of the size of Iraq's
insurgency, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says.
Rumsfeld, during a hearing of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, declined to
publicly answer lawmakers who asked him the numerical strength of the insurgency fighting the roughly 150,000 U.S.
troops in Iraq.
"The intelligence community looks at that. The CIA does, DIA (Defence Intelligence Agency) does, others do. And
they have differing assessments," Rumsfeld said.
"My job in the government is not to be the principal intelligence officer and try to rationalize differences between
Iraqis, the CIA and the DIA. I see these reports. Frankly, I don't have a lot of confidence in any of them, on that number,"
Rumsfeld said.
In later Senate testimony, Rumsfeld also said in later testimony the Pentagon had no plans for a permanent U.S.
troop presence in Iraq, but did not rule out such an arrangement with a future elected government. He also suggested
the United States may be able to bring home its troops within 18 months if the insurgency was contained.
The Pentagon has struggled to gauge the size, composition and organization of the insurgents who have waged a
bloody guerrilla war in Iraq since an American-led invasion toppled President Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Rumsfeld testified, "I am not going to give you a number for it, because it's not my business," to do intelligence work.
He added that he could not reveal CIA and DIA estimates because they were classified.
Rumsfeld did not explain his lack of confidence in the estimates. But he has been outspoken about the need for more
and better human intelligence to be gathered by the U.S. intelligence community.
IRAQI ESTIMATE
Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, disputed an estimate of the size of the insurgency offered
recently by Gen. Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani, director of the Iraqi intelligence service.
Shahwani had said there were 200,000 insurgents, including at least 40,000 hard-core fighters, with the remainder
being part-time fighters and supporters who provide money, intelligence, food and shelter.
Myers said U.S. estimates were "considerably lower." Rumsfeld called Shahwani's numbers "totally inconsistent"
with U.S. estimates.
Critics have accused Rumsfeld of encroaching on the CIA by expanding Pentagon intelligence operations.
Rumsfeld said the Pentagon expected 200,000 Iraqi security personnel to be trained and equipped by September or
October before elections on a new constitution, up from 136,000 now. He said he expected 230,000 to be in place by
December or January for the next round of elections, with the ultimate goal 270,000 by June 2006.
The timetable for bringing home U.S. troops arose at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing.
New Mexico Republican Sen. Pete Domenici asked Rumsfeld, "If the end of this war is when they (Iraqis) no longer
need us, how close are we to having them trained so that we will not be needed anymore? ... Could they be ready in two
years, in a year in a half?"
Rumsfeld responded, "Well, it could be before that," depending on when the insurgency can be subdued.
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Thursday, 17 February 2005
Reuters via Swissinfo
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