Thursday, 17 February 2005TEHRAN ÔÇô With Iran's presidential election only four months away, logic suggests there should be excitement and enthusiasm in the country for the upcoming campaign, but the facts tell a different story.
The campaign is lackluster and anything but stimulating. Analysts believe there are a variety of reasons that have contributed to this phenomenon. First of all, none of the declared, semi-declared or likely candidates have been able to attract much grassroots enthusiasm. Second, with the possibility of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani entering the race, many potential hopefuls have lost their zeal to make a run for the presidency simply because they do not believe they can be competitive in a presidential race that includes Rafsanjani.
Furthermore, the traditional method used by candidates to introduce themselves to the electorate has become stale and ineffective. Instead of adopting modern campaign tactics used in the advanced world to make the candidate and his plans/ideas attractive to the voters, the candidates have relied on old revolutionary slogans and campaigning methods practiced more than 20 years ago in the immediate aftermath of the revolution.
In addition, observers are of the view that the uninspiring nature of the current campaign also has to do with the absence of candidates in universities and their lack of sufficient interaction with the student generation as well as the absence of a clear political platform, strategy and program to solve the problems of the people.
Pundits opine that America's strategy to step up pressure on Iran has worked in Rafsanjani's favor. The more George W. Bush, Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld verbally attack Iran, the better placed Rafsanjani will be to make a successful bid for the presidency.
The status of Iran-U.S. relations will be on top of the list of challenges the next Iranian president will face. Rafsanjani's recent interview with USA Today in which he expressed a willingness to mend fences with Washington could garner him support among the electorate.
Furthermore, because of Rafsanjani's stature within the system, he is perhaps among a handful of personalities inside and outside the government who can publicly discuss the possibility of ties with the United States without having to worry about the possible repercussions of his statements.
Preliminary public opinion polling suggests that Rafsanjani has support among 30% of eligible voters, far higher than his closest rivals (13% and less).
In any event, the June 17, 2005 presidential vote is expected to be an election dominated by foreign policy and national security, both areas that Rafsanjani is strong in. |
Thursday, 17 February 2005
Iran News Daily
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