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TURKEY GOT WHAT IT WANTED |
7 October 2004What did Turkey expect from the European Commission?
Since the beginning Turkey wanted European Union Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen's report to be clear of all obstacles preventing the start of our membership negotiations. In other words, it asked for a report in which all 25 EU heads of state and government -- due to meet on Dec. 17 -- will see clearly that Turkey has fulfilled the Copenhagen criteria and the preconditions to start negotiations. Turkey did not want the report to provide the member countries with an excuse to delay the process. No one should forget that all the leaders of the member countries promised, "If the commission releases a report saying that the negotiations can be started, we will adhere to their decision."
If the commission report was vague, the 25 members would have had an excuse not to make a decision.
Verheugen's report eliminated this risk. Today, no country will hide behind the commission report in order not to give Turkey a date to start negotiations.
In this respect, Turkey got what it wanted.
Certain Turkish commentators are critical of the fact that the report did not emphasize the need to start negotiations as soon as possible. Commission officials argue that this decision had already been made at the EU Council Summit in Copenhagen, adding there was no need to repeat it in the report. No matter what is said, it's evident the commission has left the picking of the date to the heads of state and government.
Is there a risk there might be an accident at the Dec. 17 summit in picking a date? Could something unexpected happen at the summit?
Nothing is certain in that respect. Despite everything that's been said and done, some member countries may back away from the promises they made, delay the start of the negotiations or even list new conditions.
Turkey was the victor in the first half of the game. No one knows what is going to happen in the second half: the Dec. 17 summit.
If you'll permit me, let's go step-by-step and discuss the summit over the coming days and limit ourselves to studying the report.
No special or unacceptable conditions for Turkey
Everyone will say something about the EU Commission report. Some will read the report and define it as a "declaration of submissiveness."
I talked with experts at the EU Commission before speaking to Turkish experts on Turkey-EU relations. I will summarize their comments below.
- Turkey is faced with no special status. Certain amendments were made that are applicable to both Turkey and other candidate countries. This measure was taken as a precaution, because both Bulgaria and Romania have failed to adhere to some of their promises. Another reason was to quieten those who opposed Turkey's membership and provide domestic political breathing space for member countries.
- None of the negotiation methods, the new rules or the deficiencies listed are beyond Turkey's capacities and should not disconcert the country.
- If Turkey is committed to becoming an EU member, it has reached a stage where it need not wait another 20-25 years to fulfill its objective. The negotiations will be hard and depend on both Turkey's attitude and the EU's goodwill.
As you might have surmised, we are faced with a half full/half empty glass. I see the full half, because no matter what happens, I believe this process will benefit Turkey more than the EU.
Everybody expects Turkey to cede
Those opposed to Turkey's membership hope Turkey reacts adversely to what is said in the commission report and act rashly until Dec. 17. Some even go further and hope the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government says, "If this is all you can offer, we won't start the negotiations."
They will cry crocodile tears. They will tell us how sorry they are for the way things turned out. And then they will close Turkey's full membership file. After a certain time has past they will come and ask us to sign a special partnership treaty. This will please everyone, especially the conservatives. They will minimize the cost of leaving Turkey out of the EU. If this is the way everything turns out, they will be very happy.
At the time I wrote this article, Ankara's attitude remained disappointing from the conservatives' perspective. The report contains certain critical passages. Some are so harsh that we will be very upset. However, most of it is no harsher than the way we criticize ourselves.
In other words, there is no secret agenda to divide Turkey and the report contains no pitfalls.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends not to fall into any trap laid by the conservatives. He intends to continue on the road to the EU until the conservatives erect insurmountable barriers. He intends to follow this policy until the end. That's the correct attitude.
No one should forget the fact that, no matter how many conditions the commission sets, no matter how stringent the inspection mechanism is or whether rules stipulate that negotiations could be suspended, none of it actually matters.
What really is important is for Turkey to remain committed and to continue on its EU path. Just like one EU Commission official said: "All these conditions will be forgotten in a few years. They will no longer be needed."
Source: Turkish Daily News
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7 October 2004
M. Ali BIRAND
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