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USAK Expert Ali Hussein Bakeer: Syrian Regime Pushes for Ethnic Separation to Weaken the Pressure |
2 August 2012by Sukriye Ozcan, JTW
After the Democratic Union Party (PYD) had seized control over Syrian towns along the Turkish border, there were serious fears that the country might become divided. Do you think that in light of these developments, there is a risk that Syria might end up in being divided into separate regions?
Theoretically, there is always a chance that this could happen. However, in regard to Syria, I doubt that there could be a development in that direction. Syria is a different case and to divide the country is certainly not as easy as it might sound to some. Nevertheless, I cannot absolutely exclude this possibility in the long-term as there might evolve some western or regional plans for division.
Syria consists of a diverse population, does this conflict enhance the likelihood of an ethnic conflict in Syria, especially with regard to the Kurds?
So far, there is no such issue. We are aware that the Syrian regime is pushing towards such a conflict, especially between the Sunni and Alawit or the Kurds. However, we have to bear in mind that the present conflict is still one between the opposition and the regime. Currently, the Syrian government is engaged in an effort to support certain fractions of minorities including Kurds.
In addition to the Syrian National Council, the Kurds created their own Council. What is the aim of it?
The aim of establishing the Kurdish National Council was to unite Kurds goals and the means to reach them and to take unified position of what is going on in Syria, but on a national Kurdish basis rather than on the frame work of the whole Syria (Syrian National Council). This Kurdish National Council claims that it supports the Syrian revolution but at the same time connects his support by answering his conditions which includes national Kurdish ambitions including may be autonomy, federalism or decentralized Syria in addition to the right for self-determination which are totally not accepted to all other Syrians.
Syrian opposition agreed that all Syrians should be equal in right and duties, which means Kurds will have all civil right as a Syrians but the issue of autonomy and federalism is totally different and have no legitimate basis to ask for them, and that’s why all other Syrians refuse such demands by Kurds.
By establishing this council, they separate themselves on national basis from other Syrians which is something not positive consequently; we are suspicious about this since it will not help the Syrians. Another problem is that it might provoke national emotions or aspirations between other groups.
If the present conflict is not solved within the near future and as a result sanctions get tougher – is there a possibility that this would give rise to Kurdish aspirations for an independent state?
If the present situation continues for a long time, then yes, this might happen. This is one of the reasons, why we believe that the faster the international community solves this crisis; the better it will be for Syria and the region. In case this conflict prolongs due to lack of will for the int. community to step in hardly and due to support of Russia and Iran for Assad, we can expect much more bloodshed and the regime pushing ethnic groups for independence. Of course, this is open to many speculations and scenarios. For now, at least, there is no such issue.
Although lately, there have been developments in regard to the Kurdish issue with regime forces withdrawing from some towns in the far North Easter part of Syria and North western part and handing them over to the PYD, the raising of the Kurdish flag and the set up of checkpoints on the streets. However, we have to bear in mind that all Kurdish parties, including the Kurdish National Council condemned this action taken by the PYD.
The Syrian National Council also condemned this action and does not regard a separation as an option. All parties are aware that the regime is using the PYD in order to make some ambitions for the Kurds to seek for their autonomy and later legitimize the demand for an independent state.
Giving control to the PYD allows Assad to withdraw his troops from there and use them against the Free Syrian Army in other cities; this move is also a strategy to prevent Turkey from crossing Syrian territory using Kurds as a buffer zone. But the Syrian Opposition is trying not to provoke the main stream of the Kurds in Syria but rather contain them. They are in dialogue with each other.
Do you think that there are similarities between Syria and Iraq?
No, actually Syria is different from Iraq, in particular the demographic and ethnic background. Syria is almost unified despite claims that there is a strong ethnic diversity within the population. If you look at the numbers, 80 % of the population are Sunnis, and 20% for all others. Also on ethnic basis, like almost 80% are Arabs, 20% for the rest where Kurdish minority is not more than 8% at best estimates. As we can see, this situation is different from Iraq where the number of religious and ethnic groups is much higher.
Another factor of course, is the fact that sanctions and containment by the international community also had an impact on weakening Iraq’s unity and integrity and made the state reach is weak in far areas of the centre, thereby facilitating ambitions of minority groups to seek for their ambitions, and this is not yet the case of Syria. Although lately some Kurdish parties asked for an autonomous zone similar to Iraq, there is yet no legitimate ground for such a demand in Syria.
A further point is that Iraq was already fragile due to ethnic and religious bloody clashes that continued for many years. This clearly affected their demands and each of them tried to get their share. In Syria this is not yet the case and that’s the reason why Kurdish voices are not asking for Iraqi like autonomy as they won’t have the leverage to employ this even if they wanted it. In comparison, the number of Kurds in Iraq is five times higher and neither do the Syrian Kurds live in connected areas. It is also important to stress that the Iraqi Kurds had received political, financial and military support from the international community, in particular the USA, Israel and Iran.
Do Kurds in Syria have a hope that after Assad’s regime things will turn better for them?
Currently, many Kurds do not have any civil rights in Syria but that this should not be the case is confirmed by all Syrians. They have legitimate demands. The Syrian regime deprived them of their basic rights including a citizenship, exclusion from schooling and medicine. The Syrian Kurds are comparable to refugees – or even worse.
However, the Syrian Opposition acknowledges this. They declared that all Syrian citizens shall have the right to reach any position including, running for presidency and being a member of the parliament – if equal there can be no more motives for autonomy.
On the other hand, Kurds should be more interested in seeking equal rights rather than autonomy. In Iraq, Kurds were able to claim equal rights already in the 70’s, which was very progressive. However, if you do not first attempt to claim equal rights, there is no issue of autonomy.
As to the PYD and the Syrian Kurds, it should be noted that when the leader of the Kurdish Future Party Syria, was assassinated by the PYD for working on a national level, we saw intense Kurdish protests against the Regime. The Kurds in Syria are not unified and they do not have symbolic leaders such as Talabani and Barzani in Iraq. Although it is quite obvious that they make use of the situation and insist on certain demands – it’s kind of blackmailing.
Do Barzani and Talabani support the Kurds in Syria in their aspirations for an autonomous Kurdish region?
I don’t think that there is a strong connection between the PYD and Talabani, since the PYD considers Talabani as a US supporter – which is against the beliefs of the PYD. As to Barzani, he is considered to be a traitor since he is cooperating with Turkey – their enemy. Hence, Barzani was lately attacked for inviting all Syrian Kurdish parties except of the PYD. At least publicly, Barzani is claiming political action rather than armed action. On the other hand, Barzani does not have any power to force the Kurds to do something but is more regarded as a big brother amongst the Kurds.
His latest actions provoked Iraqi central government and also many Syrians as it was seen as trying to urge Kurds of Syria to follow the steps of Iraqi Kurds.
Is there a difference on how the Turkish media is dealing with the Syrian conflict and how the Arab world is dealing with it?
The Arab world is more concerned by the fact that by handing over some parts of Syrian cities to the PYD, forces are going to be used in other places against FSA and Syrian people. Therefore the PKK does not play a huge role for them.
Although Turkey has reasonable grounds for fear, I think that they tend to exaggerate the Kurdish issue in Syria. Exaggerating the Kurdish issue will also send wrong messages to all others.
In the Arab media we can also see scenarios of a Kurdish state but not on the same scale as in Turkey. Certainly, the Arabs are concerned about some Western plots to divide Syria into different states. To prevent this, however, Turkey and the Arab states have to cooperate more, especially the Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Could it be possible that exaggeration is used in order to get the Parliament to vote for military action – maybe in the future?
I don’t think that any one wants a military intervention in Syria or there will be anything like this in the near future. There is yet no intention of the international community to do so. Neither would it be helpful to any of the sides.
I think exaggeration in Turkey is mainly related to the fear of PKK and the possible implications on the Kurdish issue in Turkey, so exaggeration in this sense is acting as an alarm. The other part of this exaggeration is related to internal political calculations between AKP and the opposition and of course some part is totally related to the ignorance in the Syrian issue.
Now regarding Turkish PM’s statement that ‘we will follow Kurds inside Syria’, I don’t think that he chose the right words or even this is a right policy to do. This statement is not perceived well in the Arab world because it unifies first the Syrian kurds, it gives PYD the upper hand on them, it creates conflicts within the Syrian opposition as some kurds are with the revolution, and finally it gives the Syrians and Arabs that Turkey has an agenda, because didn’t intervene military during more than a year and half and now want to intervene just when it comes to Kurd.
If Turkey really fears from The Kurdish issue in Syria, Turkey has much more tools available given its relations with the US and the West, and the fact that Kurds cannot get any autonomy without the support from international players. Seeking military intervention in the excuse of a Kurdish issue right now is not the right thing.
Turkey should also cooperate closely with Arab League, Saudi Arabia and Egypt as they also have same interest in this regard not to forget the Syrian opposition (Syrian national council and Free Syrian Army)
As to the PYD, it is widely criticized in Syria. With suppressing the Kurds that were against the Assad regime and assassinating the leader of the Kurdish Future party, any military intervention by Turkey could just lead to one thing- that is unity between them. |
2 August 2012
Journal of Turkish Weekly
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