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USAK Specialist Kerim Has: Russia Doesn't Want to Lose the Acquisitions in Syria |
23 July 2012by Gizem Torunlar, JTW
If we consider Prime Minister Erdogan and President Putin's meeting, what kind of attitude should Turkey present in order to keep Russia on its side?
Kerim Has: This meeting has to consider the latest situation in Syria and the crisis between Ankara and Damascus over Turkey’s fallen fighter jet. Turkey has focused on convincing Moscow to cut its support for the Assad regime. Turkey, especially after the recent F-4 crisis, totally understands that Russia's support for diminishing the Assad regime is necessary. For this reason, the crisis of Syria may be the most important topic in the meeting. As for how Turkey can convince Russia, certain topics were mentioned in their meetings. The most significant one was the “transitional national unity government” which has been accepted by both Turkey and Russia, and the decision to schedule a meeting in Geneva. Despite the fact that Turkey wants to have a transitional government without Assad, meeting with Russia was a fundamental step. A transitional government is important in creating grounds for a smooth transition in Syria, in order to prevent a possible civil war. Furthermore, Ankara can come up with a suggestion for organizing an international meeting in Moscow for the Syrian issue. A positive attitude is required from Russia in the “solution partnership.” This kind of meeting will allow Russia to have a part in the solution. In addition, to accelerate the process, Ankara needs to convince Russia in order not to lose the economic or political gains in Syria with the help of international actors.
It is a fact that Turkey is a real important figure in the region, but can Turkey alone convince Russia?
Kerim Has: Despite the fact that Russia continuously supports the Assad regime, it is possible for Turkey to convince Russia with the help of the U.S., NATO and the Gulf countries. How so? First, the U.S. and the rest of the Western countries need to accept Russia as an indispensible figure in the process regarding Syria. Despite cleaning out Russia in the region, cooperation is required. And Turkey can be a mediator between two. As we know, in 2007 at the Munich Conference, President Putin gave priority to ending hegemony of the U.S. in the world order, or the end of the unipolar world order. In the new era, the Kremlin has multi-polarity on its mind, with one of the powers being Russia. It wants to solidify its position in a system in which countries like India, Brazil, and Mexico are involved. In this point of view, we can assume that this crisis will be the indicator of Russia's power in the new world order.
Second, the acceleration of the situation in order to convince Russia about Syria will occur along with solid guarantees. However, the point is that throughout the process, Turkey needs to be in constant contact with international powers and its Syrian adversary.
There are a few important points for Russia when it comes to the Syrian topic because of the influence it has had over the country since Soviet times. The military influence is really important. Apart from that, the investments from Russia in the Syrian energy sector is worth nearly two billion dollars. Moscow is concerned that it will lose all these economic and military gains without Assad.
The Russian military presence in Syria is seen at the Tartus naval base. The base, which is strategically really important in the Mediterranean region, is in the hands of Russia and has been since 1971. Even though it is a small dock, Russia started expanding the base after the Georgian War in 2008. Furthermore, the roots to the Red Sea and Indian Ocean are available from there. The increased presence of NATO in the eastern Mediterranean is worrying Russia. Regarding the weapons contracts from Russia, its biggest client in the Middle East is Syria. Russia is responsible for 24 percent of the world’s weapons exports and Syria holds 78 percent of this amount. In light of this, in the period between 2007 and 2011, the Syrian government increased its imports by about 80 percent and to a total of 2.5 billion dollars. Russia does not want to lose opportunities in the arms trade, which it lost in the Libya and Iraq.
Convincing Russia after all its gains does not seem easy. But in the short term, Turkey should focus on getting rid of Assad so the process will be easier. In this context, the last bombings in the region the Syrian defense minister's death are the signs of a weakening regime. At the end, Russia's influence in convincing Assad to take shelter in countries like Belarus is going to smoothen the transitional stage. Turkey needs to convince Russia for a transitional government without Assad.
So is there another side to Russia backing the Damascus government, perhaps religious or denominational?
Kerim Has: Surely, the other reason for the support is preserving the balance between Shia and Sunni power. Russia prefers a Shia Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah alliance to Sunni Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Turkey. In the denominational balance, Moscow prefers to support a Shia Nusayri Assad. Why a Shia alliance? Because Russia believes hat the increasing influence of the Sunnis will affect the Northern Caucasus’ religious trends. That may be why Shia dominance is preferred to a possible Muslim Brotherhood.
And what can be said about the Russian citizens that are living in the region?
Kerim Has: There are nearly thirty thousand Russian citizens living in Syria. Within this population are other minorities like Armenians supporting the Assad government. The Russian population's Orthodoxy is the reason why they support the Nusayri government. Because the most of them believe that with a Sunni government they'll lose their rights. A possible war against Iran worries Russia even more. In this context, Russia opposes foreign pressure on Syria and Iran. The possibility of an imbalance on the Iranian borders triggering something similar in the Northern Caucasus is encouraging the Kremlin government to oppose intervention.
What can be done by Turkey if the process is to go forward?
Kerim Has: Initially, Turkey pressure to remove Assad. In the current situation, Russia also sees that there is no way for Assad to maintain his power. So it will be beneficial to get the idea in the agenda. The international meeting, as we said before, which will be held by Russia, will be helpful in speeding up the process. Last, the Turkish government has to take the issue from “global power separation” to “regional power sharing.” And this can be done by a strategic alliance focusing more on solution partnership.
Did the bomb attack before the meeting in Damascus have any effect on Russia?
Kerim Has: Besides today's attack’s importance I don’t think there will be any changes in Russia's position. But the bombing has importance in a few points. First, the authorities that died in the attack were the key players of the regime. In light of that, the regime has been wounded. Second, in a meeting which is important and secret, that kind of attack is the sign of the weakness of the regime. Third, this attack could not have been carried out by loose opposition. In order for Russia to change positions, a new equation has to be established that protects the real interest of Russia.
Prime Minister Erdogan mentioned the “transitional government” at the meeting. What is Russia's attitude toward this topic?
Kerim Has: Actually the decision about the transitional government was taken in the Geneva meeting on June 30. It was positive news for international consensus. But with the decision, in the government there will be Assad supporters and opposition. For this reason, for the crisis not to turn into a civil war, this transitional government is really important. So Turkey's real support for a transitional government is important for a crisis solution. But Turkey wants a model without Assad. And this can only happen with Assad quitting. But Moscow, on the other hand, is not warm to the idea of a government without Assad. It can only be possible if the prerequisites are met. Given the fact that Ankara and Moscow are looking at the situation very differently, taking the opposition government seriously may be considered a good start.
We knew that Prime Minister Erdogan and President Putin discussed the common energy projects and the nuclear reactor which is going to be built in Mersin. Can the Syrian crisis affect their economic and energy partnership in the future? Is it going the stress the relations between the two?
Kerim Has: To start we can say that Turkey tries to separate the bilateral relations as much as possible. It is a positive side of Turkish foreign policy over the last decade that regional problems do not affect the bilateral relations. We had seen this situation in the Georgian War in 2008, when Ankara had sought a solution without touching upon bilateral relations.
Actually the avoidance of conflict between the two countries is based on economic gains and the “energy dependence” of Turkey. Turkey was Russia’s second biggest trade partner after Germany in 2011 with a volume of 33 billion dollars. So both countries are looking at the issue through “economy glasses” and they have the right to do that.
Furthermore, Turkish businessmen have nearly 20 billion dollars’ worth of investments in the country. The construction of the nuclear reactor near Mersin, Akkuyu is going to begin soon. Besides economic investments and mutual trade, the Blue Stream, South Stream and Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline projects are pointing out a precious energy relationship between the two countries. Turkey derives sixty percent of its natural gas and thirty percent of its oil needs from Russia. In cultural terms, there are annually 3.5 million Russian tourists who visit Turkey, which shows that the relations have really gone forward and cannot be forgotten with the Syrian issue.
Finally, do you believe that Russia is using the Syrian issue to demonstrate its power in the international arena?
Kerim Has: Russia is a really important figure in the issue even though it is not involved geographically. In the solution of the issue, Russia wants to be at the center of the dynamics instead. Ankara wants it just to be in the transitional phase. In this context, it can be said that Russia wants to use the topic like a kind of “power link.” At the end, all that matters is whether the international powers accept Russia as an important element in the Middle East. |
23 July 2012
Journal of Turkish Weekly
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