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Experts Discussed Arab Spring for the 'Working Together for Democracy in the Arab World' Conference Held in USAK |
27 October 2011By Gözde Damla Çitler, JTW
The "Working Together for Democracy in the Arab World” conference is being held at the USAK Conference Hall with the participation of valuable political figures, academicians, and activisits from the Middle East, Europe, and Turkey.
Dr. Colin Durkop, Representative of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Turkey, and Prof. Dr. Ihsan Bal, USAK Head of the Science Committee, made the opening remarks.
After expressing his sadness about the earthquake and PKK attacks, Dr. Colin Durkop emphasized the importance of trilateral relations between Turkey, the Arab world, and Europe. Mr. Durkop also stated that the new environment created in the region is a good opportunity for an innovative spirit for the region which is also important for regional and global security.
Following Mr. Durkop, Prof. Dr. Ihsan Bal took the floor. Prof. Bal expressed the importance of the roles of civil society, democratization, and freedom in the region. He showed the example of Tunisian elections as the first step toward such an environment and he stated his hope that the elections can bring about fruitful results. Last, Prof. Bal emphasized the importance and necessity of a joint approach by the Arab World, Europe, and Turkey.
At the first session of the workshop, the speakers mostly focused on what happened in the Arab world by concentrating on the opportunities and challenges in the region, moderated by Prof. Dr. Fuat Keyman.
At the beginning of the first session, moderator Prof. Dr. Fuat Keyman pointed out the two main interrelated issues: the transformation of the Arab Spring and the role of Turkey. While stating that big risks are involved in this process, he said that the actors should play in a certain way and uncertainties should be replaced. Prof. Keyman also mentioned the diversity between the countries, Tunisia, and Egypt.
Following Prof. Dr. Fuat Keyman’s opening remarks, the Vice President of the Democratic Renewal Movement in Lebanon Mr. Misbah al-Ahdab started his contribution to the workshop by extending his sympathies and condolences to the victims of Van earthquake. He then said that the process of Arab Spring has begun and there is no retreat from this process, however there are potential risks and uncertainties remaining. Mr. al-Ahdab pointed out that the Arab Spring is producing diverse outcomes, and should not be considered as a whole and monolithic process. He said that there are three different outcomes: first, countries in which the leadership has been overthrown like Egypt, Tunisia and Libya; second, countries in which the leaders are resistant such as Syria; and third, the countries where the movement has recently started such as Jordan.
With the young people on the move and the usage of Facebook, Twitter, and the internet in general, the movement has been growing and is unstoppable with the further development of the internet, Mr. al-Ahdab stated.
Mr. al-Ahdab also explained the counterrevolution phenomena and that it has to be watched closely. Radical extremist groups start by denying any change to keep people trapped in the old paradigm, and then when they fail they try to maintain the status quo by any means and afterwards try to suppress people as a last stand.
Mr. al-Ahdab also drew attention to the economic development and underlined the fact that this development is a very necessary step but remains insufficient, nonetheless.
In his evaluation, Mr. al-Ahdab said that the democratic systems should be homegrown and the ingredients should be local rather than external, therefore external intervention will prevent the change from being stable and/or deepened.
Mr. al-Ahdab added that there is the Turkish message to the Arab world and Islamist groups which delivers the point that democracy is compatible with Islam and Turkey can be the example this way. He also pointed out that the success of the Arab Spring requires a strong commitment and that the neighboring countries should be warned against the risk of division.
Another speaker, USAK Middle East expert Ali Hussein Bakir started his speech by asking the question of “why and how did the Arab Spring happen?” and said that the answer is a combination of political, economic, and social factors. Mr. Bakir stressed that in a globalized world, there is no possibility to act without consequences. The regimes were blocking people from acting and the middle class vanished, he explained. Therefore, Mr. Bakir said that the process had begun in 2008 and has continued until now because Arab people wanted the change, they demanded having universal rights, democracy, transparency, etc. He also drew attention to the fact that this movement is not an ethnic or religious one, but stemmed from the demands of the people as a whole.
Mr. Bakir stressed that there are two countries in the Middle Eastern region that should be monitored: Iran and Israel. He pointed out that with the current Israeli policy, there can be no stability in the region or in the Arab states since Israel does not want such a development. As for the Palestinian issue, Mr. Bakir said that this issue has come back in a very negative way and Israelis try to overshadow the Arab Spring through the Palestinian issue. Mr. Bakir also said that Palestinians should not be deprived of their freedoms.
As for Iran, Mr. Bakir said that Iran tries to maintain its role in the region and in order to do that it supports the Syrian regime, along with which it forms a sectarian axis.
After Mr. Bakir’s remarks, Dr. Eduard Soler i Lecha from the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs in Spain took the floor and stated the impossibility of predicting what will happen from January to March in the political and socio-economic spheres. Dr. Soler continued his speech saying that there are elements provoking these political crises, the regimes are eroded, and there are social justice problems. There are many arrests. In addition to international crises, Dr. Soler said, there are political and socioeconomic ones as well. Some regimes are much more cohesive in terms of counterrevolution. Dr. Soler concluded his speech by saying that in the demonstrations, most political trade unions did not join and were apolitical, and that the reformists make pacts amongst themselves and no one is fully happy after the change.
Mr. Muhammad Sermini took the floor and said that the reasons for the Arab Spring can be explained with the fact that the Arab people reached a saturation point, and the state’s reaction to protect the status quo only aggravated the situation. Mr. Sermini said that the movement is less monolithic and less stable, but more hopeful.
Mr. Sermini stated that the Arab people only moved for democracy and freedom. He added that the Arab countries are part of an existent system and Turkey has a connection with those countries. “As a Syrian,” Mr. Sermini said, “there is a price for freedom and democracy that we are willing to pay.” He shared his belief that the region will be more stable because of this transition.
Mr. Sermini said it is either stability or chaos, but stability should be a new one consisting of new elements. Therefore, going back to what was before, even with new administration, would not bring stability.
Mr. Sermini explained the on-going situation in Syria and he said that the uprising in Syria insists that the regime fall. The uprising started in a peaceful way, but lately Syria witnessed a new form of insistence that is the global strike. There has been a very important need that should represent the Syrian movement—the Syrian national government. This has been done in coordination with all the forces and people in Syria. It represents all the Islamist, secular, and religious factions in Syria. The main target of this is to have the regime fall. They will not consider talking to the regime since they consider the regime to have lost its legitimacy.
In the end of his speech, Mr. Sermini said that there has been a need for legitimate structure that will represent the revolution in Syria lately. He added that this has been done with the coordination of different forces and it is represented by different secular, religious factions and other groups. He explained its main target is to have the regime fall and underlined the fact that this would be the request of the Syrian people. Furthermore, Mr. Sermini stated that the representation does not consider even talking to the regime since it lost its legitimacy and that the only discussion they will accept would be power transition. Mr. Sermini set the grounds for power transition in the following three steps: cutting the political relations with the regime first, cutting the diplomatic relations, and third, an economic blockade. While doing all these, Mr. Sermini said that the protection of civilians is a priority for all different outcomes that may happen.
Following Mr. Sermini’s speech Mr. Ersad Hurmuzlu, the Chief Advisor to the President Abdullah Gul, took the floor and mentioned the Turkish viewpoint regarding the Arab Spring. He stressed the fact that Turkey is encouraging people, calling for freedom and a dignified way of life, although it certainly should not mean that Turkey is urging anyone to adopt the same kind of life it has. In contrast, Turkey simply invites people to see their own ways while respecting choices, aspirations, and certainly behaving with respect to privacy.
Mr. Hurmuzlu said that Turkey does not impose any model and there should be a local model in each region. Arabs should be focusing on the regimes that came through a Cesarean birth. There should be elections and the solution should be found through democracy. Mr. Hurmuzlu concluded his remarks by saying that Turkey also has made mistakes which cost its democratic march and now it is time to focus on construction and restoration rather than revising the mistakes that were products of the past.
The floor was then taken by two former ministers of Turkey, Yasar Yakis and Vehbi Dincerler, respectively. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr. Yasar Yakis talked about the AK Party’s transformation from being a party with Islamic roots to a more secular party, and how they covered a long distance on the way to the EU. Mr. Yakis said that since the AKP achieved this, it can represent an example for Egypt or Tunisia, thus it can be a more tangible contribution.
Former Minister of State, Mr Vehbi Dincerler raised the question of whether or not the Arab Spring is global. Dincerler stated that we now are witnessing the second spring, the first having been during the Ottoman era. Mr. Dincerler said that the process is not yet finished or reached its saturation point, therefore other springs may come. Mr. Dincerler pointed out the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well and said that Israel is the dynamite of the region.
Prof. Dr. Huseyin Bagci, a professor of the International Relations department in METU spoke about getting involved and said there is a need to be involved from outside. If Turkey is seen as a model, Prof. Bagci said, it can act as a navigator which shows the way. Prof. Bagci said that Turkey has to be very careful with the contribution to Turkish foreign policy and that Turkey cannot appear as a Big Brother in the region. Prof. Bagci stressed the importance of using soft-power. He also underlined the fact that there is no attempt by Turkey to form neo-Ottomanism or neo-Abdulhamidism. He concluded his remarks by saying there maybe is not one but two Turkish models, the second being Samuel Huntington’s and that Egypt is hanging between the two Turkish models.
Afterwards, Dr. Sayyar al-Jamil started his speech by saying that he came to hear what Turks have to say on this subject. He said that although Turkish model is always mentioned, the societies should be taken into consideration before the regimes.
Dr. al-Jamil mentioned two different Islamist leaders, the first being Osama bin Laden and the second being Khomeini of Iran, while stating that there was no leader to create democracy in the region during the 20th century. He also pointed out that much has been said and written about the potential of the Turkish model and that Turkey provides a model of how to reconcile and establish the power of democracy, as well as it serving as a model of economic and cultural success. He concluded his speech by saying the Arab world is waiting for something to happen rather than experiencing a ‘spring’ and that this way, Turkish model should be used as a narrative.
Following Dr. al-Jamil, Mr. Heiko Schuß from the University Erlangen-Nurnberg approached the question through a political economy viewpoint and said that the political systems are more or less corrupted and these mechanisms of course have weakened the civil society. Agricultural subsidies make economically no sense and the protests against oppression are a primarily democratic wave. Mr. Schuß stated that the element of surprise is very important, and that security services and police were surprised. The Syrian regime had more time to think and ethnic problems, religious aspects, and tribal differences were used to strengthen regimes. Effectively, after the democratic transition, even after elections, there will be rent-seeking behavior. Mr. Schuß finished his remarks saying that a semi-democratic, pluralistic system benefits one’s clients and there are big economic problems in the Middle East because tourism and foreign investment are broken.
At the end of the first session, Prof. Dr. Fuat Keyman summarized the points of the discussion as follows:
*Change and transformation is inevitable, this change will continue.
*The change will not be easy but it is indeed hopeful in many ways.
*Comparing it to the central European movements or the South European revolutions, the global context is different concerning the Arab revolution and its circumstances.
*Iranian, Israeli, Palestinian, and Saudi Arabian roles should also be taken into consideration.
*The change is going toward a democratic way, not an ethnic or religious way. Despite this, whoever comes into power will still have three fundamental challenges:
- It has to transform the entire state. Unless there cannot be a deep and consistent democracy, this has to be transformed.
- These countries are multicultural, multi-religious, and multi-ethnic countries. New comers would face a challenge in getting along together, there has to be a respect for the role of law rather than religious rules.
- Civil society has been weakened: Strengthening the middle classes and civil society is also very important.
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27 October 2011
Gözde Damla Çitler, JTW
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