British intelligence analyst and founder of AFI Research (UK),Richard.M.Bennett is the author of numerous works covering foreign intelligence aspects of geopolitical events in Afghanistan,Middle East and Central Asia.He also is the author of article "Old Habits Die in Kyrgyzstan" published by Asia Times (Hong Kong,China) where Mr.Bennett provided highly critical information on Russia’s intelligence agencies involvement in organizing April 2010 uprising in Kyrgyzstan.A subject of discussion reflects ongoing instability in the region and specifics of current geopolitics in Central Asia.

Ryskeldi Satke - There is a debate within expert communities worldwide over involvement of Russia’s intelligence agencies in recent political disturbances in Kyrgyz Republic.Some believe there is not enough amount of evidence pin-pointing at Kremlin as mastermind of coup d’état in Bishkek,others see direct Moscow hand in duet with Kyrgyz opposition organizing April 2010 violent protests.Your article ("Old Habits Die in Kyrgyzstan" April 13 2010) which appeared on Asia Times reflected some specific details of Russia’s SVR (Foreign Intelligence) and GRU (Military Intelligence) handy work in neutralizing ex-President Bakiyev’s security apparatus during April 2010.Since then majority of the world Governments came to peace with Russia’s actions in Kyrgyzstan while political analysts characterize events in Central Asia as "Great Game" between the US and Russia.In your opinion, is it a deliberate calculated move by Moscow with long term strategy in Central Asia via Kyrgyzstan which is already hosting 5 Russian military installations? or it’s a sporadic Kremlin exercise despite loosing broad ground in the region?
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Richard M.Bennett - Russian Governments whether Tsarist, Communist or post-Communist have always appeared to see Central Asia as either a threat or an opportunity, or both.

They have believed their influence to be threatened alternatively by the British Raj; the USA; the Chinese and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism.
Moscow continues to see a genuine threat posed by either Islam, Beijing or Washington to its long-term ambitions to rebuild its influence and control over the Central Asian states.

While some of Moscow"s recent actions may appear to be simple knee-jerk responses or based on temporary expediency it would, I believe, be far wiser to consider them as possibly important pointers to Russia"s hidden agenda for the future of its relations with Central Asia as a whole.
The image in particular of the United States has reportedly improved amongst many of the Central Asian peoples according to Gallup opinion polls published in early 2011 with the biggest gains seen in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, something that will not have gone un-noticed in the Kremlin.

However in Kyrgyzstan itself, Washingtons" approval rating has been fluctuating. In 2008, only 24% of the Kyrgyz population reportedly viewed the USA in a favourably way. By 2009 this had increased to 36%, only to see a surprising decline to 30% in 2010.

Most disquieting for Moscow however may be the apparent attempts by President Obama to forge a warmer relationship with Kyrgyzstan President Roza Otunbayeva during her recent visit to Washington. Reports suggest that Otunbayeva held an unplanned meeting with Obama on March 7th and that the results "exceeded expectations". This was also the second meeting between the two Presidents in less than six months.
This may indeed be a pointer to President Otunbayeva"s wish to extract her Government somewhat from being smothered by a Russian "bearhug", something Moscow may feel the need to respond to by undermining her Government by iniating further unrest.

Ryskeldi Satke - The Interim Government of Kyrgyzstan headed by President Otunbayeva was unable to stop inter-ethnic violence and widespread massacres in Southern provinces in June 2010.Uzbek President Karimov repeatedly accused "third forces" in fomenting ethnic violence between Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks of Kyrgyz Republic.Karimov also called for high level investigation of tragic events by International organizations and the UN.Kyrgyz President Otunbayeva’s Government quickly placed the blame on ousted Bakiyev relatives and his sons,one of whom found a refuge in the UK applying for political asylum.Besides Bakiyevs,Kyrgyzstan accuses the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan,Islamic Jihad Union and Taleban in organizing mass killings in Osh and Jalalabad.But according to Uzbek President Karimov’s statement there is no indication of IMU,IJU or Taleban trace in south Kyrgyzstan.The circles of Uzbekistan Government anonymously claim Russia’s Security Service role in instigation of ethnic violence.Ironically,a year earlier in 2009 Uzbek officials shared their concern over possible chaos in Osh with Turkish analyst.Kyrgyz security officials have been presenting evidence of foreign mercenaries involvement in June to Arabic channel Al jazeera.Ex-Commandant Baibolov in his statement to regional media outlet confirmed capture of hired guns (Tajik nationals) in the city of Jalalabad.Moreover,Russian analyst Dubnov in an interview with "Echo Moscow" radio station highlighted a fact that mercenaries of different nationalities have been hired in Russia and channeled through capital Moscow to Southern Kyrgyzstan.Although,recent conclusion of International Commission headed by Kimmo Killjunen didn’t find any evidence of "third force" but laid the blame on the Government of Otunbayeva for creating dangerous conditions prior to ethnic bloodshed.Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta on June 24 2010 came out with article confirming GRU collecting intelligence in Osh and according to Russia’s military President Medvedev was briefed on the regular basis.Russian newspaper quotes GRU official indicating trace of foreign mercenaries,snipers,Western NGO’s and US organizations in organizing ethnic clashes.
What’s your take on events in June 2010?

Richard M.Bennett - I can see little reason to doubt that Moscow was "playing the great game" during 2010 and with some considerable success at first. However I think it more than likely that, with a rather typical Russian political crudeness, they overplayed their hand later in 2010.
Believing that "gratitude" would be forthcoming from the new Government of Kyrgyzstan and that their new found influence was more intrenched than it really was, Moscow may have simply pushed too hard and fast. If this did in fact occure then it probably explains President Otunbayeva"s wish to build a closer relationship with Washington to "balance" the situation.

Ryskeldi Satke - Shortly, after exploded chaos in South Kyrgyzstan, a series of terrorist acts popped up in neighboring Tajikistan.Tajik Government seemed to have a tight grip over situation although there is a discussion over President Rahmon’s ability to control borders with Afghanistan. Do you see any link between violent outbursts in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan?

Richard M.Bennett - While I accept that in some instances the long term reasons behind the unrest are different, I would be unsurprised if it could be proved that the instigators were not only similar, but that the strategic ambitions of certain near neighbours were also largely the same.

Ryskeldi Satke - Kremlin has already deployed 45 FSB operatives in so called training center in the city of Osh,Kyrgyzstan,formulating need of reliable ground to block heroin trafficking from Afghanistan.Regional experts believe these 45 FSB servicemen wouldn’t be able to stop drug flow unless there is combined effort between central Asian states to combat drug cartels.Meanwhile,Uzbekistan is quite nervous with the presence of Russian military units close to its border with Kyrgyzstan which has been a headache for a number of years due to infiltration of extremists from Kyrgyz territory according to Uzbek officials. What’s your perspective on growing presence of Russian military and intelligence in South Kyrgyzstan? and your thoughts on reaction of Uzbekistan to it?

Richard M.Bennett - Moscow is aware of its crucial lack of good intelligence "take", both SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) and HUMINT (Human Intelligence) in Central Asia since the mid 1990"s.

It will undoubtedly be anxious to repair this defect and the opportunity has now arisen due to political changes that have already happened or it their view, will hopefully occur in the region.

I would expect the first significant sign of this would be the establishment of a permanent Russian SIGINT base in Kyrgyzstan to replace the use of the current covert facilities.

There can be little doubt that Uzbek President Islam Karimov is distinctly concerned about developments in the region and is indulging in a frenetic round of diplomatic contacts and visits, notably to NATO in Brussels in January 2011 and later to Tokyo in February.
Uzbekistan"s potential importance to NATO and particularly the USA in providing supply routes to its forces in Afghanistan can be expected to be used as a bargaining chip for a significant increase in Western military aid to rearm and retrain its rather ramshackle Soviet-equipped armed forces.

The Uzbek SNB National Security Service has reportedly established strong links since 2001 with the CIA and indeed allowed the NSA to monitor Russian activities in the region.

There can be little doubt that the US has so far benefitted considerably from intelligence gained by the SNB by highly questionable methods from terrorist suspects and that the repressive regime in Tashkent has received the quiet approval of both Washington and London for its activities.