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Arzu Celalifer Ekinci
USAK Center for Energy Studies |
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Monday, 26 July 2010
Nowadays we have a pretty much complicated story in the middle of the US-Iran psychological propaganda war. On one hand we have Iranian government who claims that the Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri was abducted by the Saudi agents and CIA last year in Saudi Arabia during pilgrimage. On the other hand we have the U.S. intelligence and U.S. authorities who say that Amiri defected with a free will and provided important intelligence about Iranian nuclear program.
By the time Mr. Amiri worked as a researcher at Tehran’s Malek Ashtar University which has been cited by the UN in the past as a nuclear research site and is widely thought to be run by the Revolutionary Guard. There were comments about him indicating that he was a scientist in Iran’s nuclear program that was likely tied to the recently discovered secret uranium enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom. But Shahram Amiri himself and Iranian authorities deny the claim that he is a nuclear scientist. Mr. Amiri also told that he is a simple researcher.
The narrative gets even more complicated in the framework of Shahram Amiri’s explanations. During the past months he released contradictory videos about his situation. In the first video, he said that he was abducted "in a joint operation by terror and kidnap teams from the US intelligence service, CIA and Saudi Arabia’s Istikhbarat" from Medina. In the second video, he contradicted his earlier statements, saying that he was in the US of his own free will to further his education, dismissing all rumors about his defection. There were lots of comments and suggestions about those two videos both in Iran and the U.S. Actually the U.S. authorities kept silent till the last moment. But Iranian authorities have been claiming that the U.S. is behind his abduction from the beginning and they have evidences.
The U.S. Officials later on made an official statement about Mr. Amiri’s defection and said that he came by his own free will and he is free to go whenever he wants. Nonetheless they gave more information about his cooperation with the CIA which is not a usual case. They offered details to the press about Amiri’s supposed cooperation with the U.S. intelligence as an informant inside Iran, including $ 5 million payment in exchange for defection. According to an anonymous U.S. intelligence officer talked to the Telegraph Daily, "CIA might want to take revenge on Amiri for returning to Iran and by telling the U.S. media about his cooperation and long record as an agent they are simply signing his death warrant and ensuring that the Iranian authorities would eventually execute him."
Currently Mr. Amiri is in Iran and he claimed that the U.S. offered to resettle him and his family in a European country if he changes his mind to return back and they also offer him to pay $ 10 million if he appears on CNN and say that he came to the US of his own free will. On his arrival to Tehran airport where he was hailed as a national hero, he also said that he was under the harshest mental and physical torture. Shortly after, on a videotaped interview broadcasted on Iranian State TV, he accused American agents of trying to coerce him to confess to being a spy, so they could try to exchange him for three hikers from the U.S. who have been held by Iran since they wandered over the border from Iraq in July 2009 .
After this puzzled story, naturally many questions raised in minds such as if Mr. Amiri was abducted, being tortured and was under pressure, how was he able to send a video message? Again, if Mr. Amiri is a simple researcher, why the U.S. intelligence decided to abduct him? A few months ago the Head of Iranian Atomic Energy Agency declared that even he has not heard the name of Shahram Amiri, therefore how his name could be subjected to this intelligence complex? So many other questions like this could be listed.
And now another claim is on the table. Intelligence sources in the U.S. and Israel are now suspected that Amiri might be a double agent being sent by the Iranian authorities to deceive them about the Iranian nuclear program. His decision to go back voluntarily and his statements prompted suspicious that he was a double agent working for Iran all along. An analyst talked to the Daily Telegraph said that it was possible that Amiri was a double agent and that he had been sent to the US by Iranian intelligence to plant false information and that he always intended to return and he also mentioned that "If that is the case, he will become an Iranian hero and the CIA’s charges will do him no harm."
Another possibility shall be underlined too. Mr. Amiri might be a genuine defector and since he left his family behind, the primary factor for his return may be the pressure on his family.
Consequently it can be said that there are a lot of holes in this story. While the story of abduction could be possible due to the importance of the nuclear issue, the possibility of voluntarily defection could also be possible due to attractive and allured packages being offered. The story of double agent could be possible too since there have been many similar cases in the world. This is not weird that both the U.S. and Iran would use the intelligence tools and strategies in order to gain scores.
The answer for this story is not available at the moment. But soon or late the story about Amiri’s abduction or defection will be uncovered. Currently the nuclear issue is a hot topic and being affiliated with this program to any extent could both be a valuable asset or a source of danger. While the news about people working inside Iranian nuclear program that already defected or has the plan to defect in return for reward packages of money is not surprising, the news about scientists that have been killed or disappeared is not surprising too.
The answer to the question of whether this was an intelligence coup or an intelligence failure for the U.S. cannot be given at the moment. But it can be said that if he was really abducted or if he had been sent as a double agent, this would be considered as an intelligence failure for the U.S. But if he was voluntarily defected but decided to return due to the pressure on his family, this can be considered as a partial success for the U.S. since this would mean that the U.S. has managed to take at least some details about Iranian nuclear program.
Arzu Celalifer Ekinci / PhD
USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
* This article first published in Hurriyet Daily News on July 24, 2010.
